LexiLei Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Ok so I'm sending out my companions and it seems like I'll send them out 20 times before I get a mission discovery for lv 450...is this normal? Thanks for the help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psandak Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 (edited) Ok so I'm sending out my companions and it seems like I'll send them out 20 times before I get a mission discovery for lv 450...is this normal? Thanks for the help. It can be. Things to remember: - at best you have a 22% chance to crit and get a mission. That means you have a 78% of not critting. Translation: you are 3.55 times more likely to not crit than to crit - no mission result affects the result of any other mission being run. Translation: your chance to crit is fixed no matter how many missions you run. - statistically speaking one is more likely to not crit six times in a row as one is to crit once: odds of six consecutive non-crits is 22.52%; the odds of one crit is 22% - it is human nature to focus on the negative. Do you remember the last time you crit twice in a row? Probably not. - random does not equal even. Translation, in randoms set clusters WILL happen. This is probably the hardest fact to fully comprehend. A quote from one of my favorite TV shows might help: Charlie Eppes: Lady luck, chance, randomness... Human beings, truly, have a hard time understanding it. Raindrops fall randomly. Now which of these two images best represents raindrops falling on a sidewalk? Is it image A? [grouped pattern] Charlie Eppes: Image B? [even pattern - the class chooses this one] Charlie Eppes: Okay. You're wrong. Our brains misperceive evenness as random, and wrongly assume that groupings are deliberate. Because of this people make all sorts of irrational decisions. Like, they won't work in a high rise building, or they're afraid to live in an earthquake prone area. And yet mathematical assessment tells us that you are far more likely to suffocate in bed than you are to you are to die in a terrorist attack. You are ten times more likely to die from alcohol than from being in an earthquake. And it is three times more likely that you will be killed while driving to buy a lottery ticket than it is that you will win the lottery. The reverse is also true: our brains misperceive randomness as even. Only over the long haul the randomness of crit chance level out and indicate that the RNG algorithm is working. Edited June 6, 2014 by psandak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LexiLei Posted June 6, 2014 Author Share Posted June 6, 2014 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mmurph Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 What show is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psandak Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 What show is that from? Numb3rs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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