It is definitly not 20% chance to get a new schematic, when you reverse. 20% = every fifth time. I know its not excatly like that but still. When you have done it 10 times, if not more, and still havent gotten it, it seems like a big lie or a load of c...

It's similar to gambling. Have you got any dice handy? Like from any board games?

 

If so, dig one up and roll it a bunch of times and see what happens. You might be surprised.

It is definitly not 20% chance to get a new schematic, when you reverse. 20% = every fifth time. I know its not excatly like that but still. When you have done it 10 times, if not more, and still havent gotten it, it seems like a big lie or a load of c...

 

It's 20% per attempt. Each attempt is separate, not cumulative.

 

 

Now, math and statistics people will talk about streaks and number of times you hit or miss in a row (other people, not me) but that is something completely different.

 

For the RNG and reverse engineering, 20% chance per attempt, each attempt is a unique 'event.'

I've gotten them 3 in a row before. Then there were times it took me almost 20 tries. It happens. There was one time I tried over 50 times... then I realized I already had the schematic. I think in 3.0 they tell you know when you already have the schematic so that may not be the issue.

whoops Edited December 12, 2014 by psandak

It is definitly not 20% chance to get a new schematic, when you reverse. 20% = every fifth time. I know its not excatly like that but still. When you have done it 10 times, if not more, and still havent gotten it, it seems like a big lie or a load of c...

 

You are falling into the Gambler's Fallacy

 

20% chance to RE for a schematic means that with each individual attempt there is a 1 in 5 chance you will get a schematic. No attempt affects the result of any other attempt: 20% is 20% is 20% no matter how many attempts you make the chance on the current attempt is 20%.

 

Have I been frustrated by failure to RE for schematics in a "reasonable" amount of time? Absolutely. It took me 20 REs to get the blue quality reflex stim. But on the flip side I went from green to blue to purple on the skill stim in three attempts (green to blue in one try and blue to purple in two tries). I have crafted five mods and enhancements only to get the schematic off the first RE (luckily green stuff is selling at the moment). But on the flip side I have crafted 15 mods (of a different type) and gotten nothing from RE.

 

Lastly, "10 times" is not even close to a proper sample. Come back after you have REed several hundred items with specific data of success and failure and then we can talk.

 

View the "probability 101" vid in my sig. And you should understand better.

Edited December 12, 2014 by psandak

If anyone thinks 20% chance is bad they should try F2P/Preferred. They only have 10% base chance.

View the "probability 101" vid in my sig. And you should understand better.

This here. Thanks to Psandak pointing it out, this is what I link in nearly every conversation about random numbers. Works just as well for complaints about loot drops.