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Chance to learn schematics is ridiculous

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Chance to learn schematics is ridiculous

thomasgtott's Avatar


thomasgtott
01.19.2020 , 11:59 AM | #1
Try to learn schematic for Artifact Augment @ 10% chance. Deconstruct 20, no schem. Deconstruct another 20, still no schematic. Switch to toon with Bio, try to learn reusable Kyrprax medpac mk2 @ 5% chance. Have now deconstructed 112 artifact level medpacs, still no MK2 schematic. If it was really a 5% chance, then the chance of doing 112 without success is .95^112 = 0.3%, so I'm either very unlucky or it's just broken - like so much else in 6.0.

It's as if BW team sit around all day, NOT fixing all the bugs, but thinking of creative ways to take the fun out of the game and drive people away.

Void_Singer's Avatar


Void_Singer
01.19.2020 , 05:25 PM | #2
Quote: Originally Posted by thomasgtott View Post
Try to learn schematic for Artifact Augment @ 10% chance. Deconstruct 20, no schem. Deconstruct another 20, still no schematic. Switch to toon with Bio, try to learn reusable Kyrprax medpac mk2 @ 5% chance. Have now deconstructed 112 artifact level medpacs, still no MK2 schematic. If it was really a 5% chance, then the chance of doing 112 without success is .95^112 = 0.3%, so I'm either very unlucky or it's just broken - like so much else in 6.0.

It's as if BW team sit around all day, NOT fixing all the bugs, but thinking of creative ways to take the fun out of the game and drive people away.
you almost got the formula right....
items that are crafted in stacks also deconstruct in stacks of the same size... so if the recipe is for 4 items (without crit) then it will deconstruct in stacks of 4

since medpacs craft in stacks of 6, your 112 of them (18 crafted stacks) your chance of failing all of them is ~40%

the 40 augment tries at 10% though... that's insane.... less than 2% chance you'd get that far without a schematic (assuming the chances are accurate)

Properly on average @ 20% chancce should only take 3 tries,
at 10%.. 7 attempts
and at 5%, 13 attempts
the graph of attempts should look like a black body graph with a peak at the listed number of attempts
If it moves, shoot it.
if it stops moving... shoot it again.
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MoonRaker-'s Avatar


MoonRaker-
01.20.2020 , 02:56 PM | #3
Quote: Originally Posted by Void_Singer View Post
you almost got the formula right....
items that are crafted in stacks also deconstruct in stacks of the same size... so if the recipe is for 4 items (without crit) then it will deconstruct in stacks of 4

since medpacs craft in stacks of 6, your 112 of them (18 crafted stacks) your chance of failing all of them is ~40%

the 40 augment tries at 10% though... that's insane.... less than 2% chance you'd get that far without a schematic (assuming the chances are accurate)

Properly on average @ 20% chancce should only take 3 tries,
at 10%.. 7 attempts
and at 5%, 13 attempts
the graph of attempts should look like a black body graph with a peak at the listed number of attempts
Well, if there is a 20% chance to get a schematic and you deconstruct 3 stacks, then your chance that you fail them all is still 51,2% (47,8% for 7 attempts with 10% chance of success, 51,3% for 13 attempts with a 5% chance of success). It also doesn't matter if you deconstruct single or multiple stacks providing you use the basic urn model with replacement.
Deconstructing 40 augments with a 10% chance to get the schematic and no success is really unlucky and unlikely (1,47%), but this could also be a bug. I experience a similar thing at the moment when I try to get the schematic for the reusable power adrenal, but with about 20 tries, I still have 35% chance for only misses...

Void_Singer's Avatar


Void_Singer
01.20.2020 , 04:59 PM | #4
yup, that's the problem with statistics... mos tpeople don't have any backgroud with it to get an intuitive feel for things like hard averages.. people tend to expect equal splits, but most things tend to work out as a few big somethings and a ridiculous amount of litth somethings balancing it
If it moves, shoot it.
if it stops moving... shoot it again.
- Anonymous Mercenary

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thomasgtott's Avatar


thomasgtott
01.20.2020 , 05:49 PM | #5
Quote: Originally Posted by Void_Singer View Post
yup, that's the problem with statistics... mos tpeople don't have any backgroud with it to get an intuitive feel for things like hard averages.. people tend to expect equal splits, but most things tend to work out as a few big somethings and a ridiculous amount of litth somethings balancing it
Uh, no, I certainly know my math. MoonRaker just mixed up two points in my post. For the artifact augment schematic there is a 10% chance of success when decontructing one prototype unit, i.e. 90% chance of fail. However, chance to fail 40 times in a row is only 0.9^40 or 1.47% chance of all 40 failing. The discussion of stacks was w.r.t. the medpacs where I was incorrecty assuming the chance was 5% per _unit_ not 5% per _stack of 6_ which is what it really is.

Void_Singer's Avatar


Void_Singer
01.20.2020 , 09:28 PM | #6
My second reply was targeted in general, not at you specifically
If it moves, shoot it.
if it stops moving... shoot it again.
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This is My Referral Link. There are many like it but this one is mine.