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Is It Time To Get Rid of Ranked for Good?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > PvP
Is It Time To Get Rid of Ranked for Good?

TrixxieTriss's Avatar


TrixxieTriss
05.18.2019 , 11:47 PM | #141
Quote: Originally Posted by KendraP View Post
I mean if we're talking basic statistics, convergence tends to occur after approximately 30 samples at a minimum. Thus, as a simple mathematical matter, and assuming rating can be approximated as an independent random variable, 50 would seem to be a reasonable number. See also the central limit theorem.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5370305/
True, but when you add an ELO system to it, it adds another lvl of complexity. I would think that you would need to get a stable ELO rating around your skill lvl to first determine independent random variables.

Someone posted a link to ELO the other day, it might have been Set (sorry can’t seem to find it) or even you
It was a very interesting and informative read. I didn’t have a full understanding of what or how ELO was really supposed to work before reading it.
After reading it, I’ve come to the conclusion that ELO in swtor can never be entirely accurate because you have these random variables you can’t control, like the other people on your team.

For anyone who hasn’t read about the history of ELO. It was originally developed to rank world chess masters so that they could compete against each other. It was never designed for online gaming in a group environment.
I guess you would call that the original 1v1 situation. So if swtor was a 1v1 ELO system, then it would be 99% accurate.
But because it’s not, you need a much bigger sample of matches to really gauge a person’s ELO.

Metthew's Avatar


Metthew
05.19.2019 , 02:11 AM | #142
First of all, I support the general sense behind this thread. With the collapsing population, it would make sense to either just eliminate ranked altogether, or make ranked group ranked only with a group finder option, or seek some other form of queue consolidation. Another option that can be considered in addition, is making the ranked queue 1v1 - dueling is iconic from KOTOR.

That being said, I'm only posting here, after having quit the game for the past few weeks, because my bad-math senses were tingling:

Quote: Originally Posted by KendraP View Post
I mean if we're talking basic statistics, convergence tends to occur after approximately 30 samples at a minimum. Thus, as a simple mathematical matter, and assuming rating can be approximated as an independent random variable, 50 would seem to be a reasonable number. See also the central limit theorem.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5370305/
This is a faulty application of the CLT - the reason being, the ELO you "should be" assigned by the system depends on the population currently in the queue. The skill level of the queue can actually fluctuate highly, because there is a handful people on each server playing at a higher level, and the number of them actually in the queue fluctuates greatly. This means that your samples are not from the same mean.

This is a population issue, if a 1000+ people played solo ranked all the time and the ratio of people in each bracket remained roughly the same at each hour, you would not have this problem.

Quote: Originally Posted by TrixxieTriss View Post
True, but when you add an ELO system to it, it adds another lvl of complexity. I would think that you would need to get a stable ELO rating around your skill lvl to first determine independent random variables.

Someone posted a link to ELO the other day, it might have been Set (sorry can’t seem to find it) or even you
It was a very interesting and informative read. I didn’t have a full understanding of what or how ELO was really supposed to work before reading it.
After reading it, I’ve come to the conclusion that ELO in swtor can never be entirely accurate because you have these random variables you can’t control, like the other people on your team.

For anyone who hasn’t read about the history of ELO. It was originally developed to rank world chess masters so that they could compete against each other. It was never designed for online gaming in a group environment.
I guess you would call that the original 1v1 situation. So if swtor was a 1v1 ELO system, then it would be 99% accurate.
But because it’s not, you need a much bigger sample of matches to really gauge a person’s ELO.
The "issue" you're taking with the system disappears if each skill bracket is similarly (around same rating "density") and sufficiently (each "bracket" can be assigned their own games) populated at all hours, because the fluctuations in team-member quality would be minimal for any given ELO you may be sitting at. In particular, there is nothing wrong with using a ELO system for this game, if enough people actually played it.

However, the problem created by insufficient population is systematic - there actually is no workaround for it except for maybe trying to make SWTOR e-sports a thing (lul).

t. Math PhD
Erhart / Wilhemine | Darth Malgus | <Take a Seat>

Lhancelot's Avatar


Lhancelot
05.19.2019 , 09:02 AM | #143
Quote: Originally Posted by Metthew View Post
That being said, I'm only posting here, after having quit the game for the past few weeks, because my bad-math senses were tingling.
What you are saying is if we want to pull you back into the game, all we got to do is throw some bad math at you?
The Revival of SWTOR: Petition for More Funding and Resources
(Click link Below For More Information)

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=959696

TrixxieTriss's Avatar


TrixxieTriss
05.19.2019 , 09:29 PM | #144
Quote: Originally Posted by Lhancelot View Post
What you are saying is if we want to pull you back into the game, all we got to do is throw some bad math at you?
1+8x4/6=-120783

WayOfTheWarriorx's Avatar


WayOfTheWarriorx
05.19.2019 , 09:59 PM | #145
Quote: Originally Posted by TrixxieTriss View Post
1+8x4/6=-120783
Ohh no.....not math again.....please no math...

sharkfishman's Avatar


sharkfishman
05.19.2019 , 10:51 PM | #146
Quote: Originally Posted by WayOfTheWarriorx View Post
Ohh no.....not math again.....please no math...
For some people (myself included, lol), all math is bad math.

In fact, it can be downright evil.
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ColorfulCaiques's Avatar


ColorfulCaiques
05.20.2019 , 10:24 AM | #147
Tbh I wouldn't mind if BW canned ranked arenas. It's been overrun with cheating and que manipulation since its inception, and the pvp population is beyond saving at this point. You generally see the same names in ranked and its been like that for a while.

However, if there was no way to que for solely arenas anymore, I would NEVER come back to this game. BW needs to grow a spine and fix ranked. It's been 11 seasons of the same nonsense. Enough is enough.
Don't flatter yourself, EA/BW. I'm just here by the grace of a referral.