Upon further reflection, multiple worst-case streaks in the same fight are important thing to count. My reason for dropping them had been that you're already dead, so why count subsequent streaks? Strictly speaking, that isn't true though, so we can't remove them from the calculation. If I put them back into my calculation, it is likely that I will arrive at numbers similar to yours.

I would still argue that 10 is the correct number of hits to consider unless we start getting into expected shield chance, etc.

Your simulated numbers are certainly within the ballpark for what you predicted originally. Given the inherent imprecision in IEEE double, it seems like the difference could almost be accounted for by accumulated rounding error.

With that said, I would *really* like to know what is wrong with the derivation I made. It seems to be supported by the laws of probability, and yet it doesn't match what our simulations are telling us.

Upon further reflection, multiple worst-case streaks in the same fight are important thing to count. My reason for dropping them had been that you're already dead, so why count subsequent streaks? Strictly speaking, that isn't true though, so we can't remove them from the calculation. If I put them back into my calculation, it is likely that I will arrive at numbers similar to yours.

 

I would still argue that 10 is the correct number of hits to consider unless we start getting into expected shield chance, etc.

 

Your simulated numbers are certainly within the ballpark for what you predicted originally. Given the inherent imprecision in IEEE double, it seems like the difference could almost be accounted for by accumulated rounding error.

 

With that said, I would *really* like to know what is wrong with the derivation I made. It seems to be supported by the laws of probability, and yet it doesn't match what our simulations are telling us.

Yeah if we assumed that you died after 10 unmitigated hits that would be a correct assumption. Given that its across 20 seconds my calculations were more geared to showing how often it occurs without killing you.

Likewise, I'd like to know what we're doing wrong with the calculations. I just don't get why its giving us <0.1% probability per fight, yet showing up approximately/at least once every 3 weeks (30 fights). My brain hurts at this stage so I'm gonna take a break and look at it again in the morning.

This in turn means that the severity of the "worst case scenario" is not any more dire in a progression environment. Twenty seconds! That's almost the half the cooldown on Resilience!

this is even more true now that they redesigned resilience. over the course of a raid the average cool down time on my resilience is just over 32 seconds. granted my stats are 25k HP, 40.25% damage reduction, 33.33% defense, 66.8%shield and a 61% absorption. so my build is built entirely around mitigating as much and as often as possible. to date MY HP have never been a problem in any encounter even with sub par healers that we are just dragging through. i pride myself of having the highest possible mitigation (i am speaking of course on average mitigation, and im aware these stats are not mathematically optimal, but the difference between my build and the optimal build is only a tenth of a percent) obtainable with 61 modifications.

Im so glad there are people like you in the game to do these number crunches, makes gearing my first tank so much easier xD

 

I read the old Sith Warrior thread on tanking stat priorities before I started grinding out gear for my own shadow tank and so far Ive got 24k HP (buff, no stim), 40.25% dam red, 27.68% def, 45.41% shield and 58.30% absorb and stil need a few more Campaign pieces.

 

My question is though, as Shadow tanks, is it more worth while for us to us switch to a few pieces of gear that favor EHP over mitagation on bosses where we can't mitagate most of the damage? (Ex: Stormcaller, TFB 2nd phase [utilizing Force Cloak for gear switch]).

Ty in advance!

ive been using my gear set in all encounters and have never noticed a problem. once your all set with full campaign min maxed out youll be close to 25k HP with a stim, which is more than enough.

to over simplify things its better (in my opinion) to have mitigation and not need it (since from my experience 25k is more than enough mixed in with cool downs and even cloak to survive the worst case scenario fairly easily for a sustained amount of time) then to need it and not have it, thus putting unnecessary strain on your healers on EVERY fight.

this is all personal opinion, and i do believe the redesigned resilience plays a part in swaying my choice, but i have seen shadow tanks that have opted for the high endurance gear and they tend to be much more difficult to manage as a healer and simply dont have the meens of staying alive for sustained periods of time.

(My secondary raid char is a commando healer that i am taking part of every encounter with as well)

so coming from me, id recommend sticking with mitigation although i know alot of people will disagree with me.

so do you. if you want a little more HP for the vanity and believe its the way to go,then go ahead but just be sure to not over do it.

Yeah if we assumed that you died after 10 unmitigated hits that would be a correct assumption. Given that its across 20 seconds my calculations were more geared to showing how often it occurs without killing you.

 

Likewise, I'd like to know what we're doing wrong with the calculations. I just don't get why its giving us <0.1% probability per fight, yet showing up approximately/at least once every 3 weeks (30 fights). My brain hurts at this stage so I'm gonna take a break and look at it again in the morning.

I have since realised where my error was. I was considering a probability of 0.178 as 0.178% and 0.082 as 0.082%. Once I realised I was doing this wrong and the per fight probability was actually 17.8% and 8.2% respectively the rest of the numbers make sense.

Summary of numbers using 10 hits:

- Chance to see per fight assuming X hits = X - 9 Worst case strings: 8.2%

- Chance to see per fight assuming only discreet strings of 10 hits: 4.4%

- Chance to see it in a given week*: 36.24%

All of those are consistent with my simulation that had it occurring ~19 weeks of the year.

*NB: This was assuming only "progression level" content. That is a weekly clear of TFB HM, EC HM and NP. For a total of 10 bosses. The more you do the higher the chance and the less you do the lower.