...and I still fail...every...*******...time. Edited November 8, 2015 by Saregon

...and I still fail...every...*******...time.

 

Yep, its like I never believe the 20% RE chance prior to 4.0. At 20%, I should really have had to make about 5 items to statistically get 100% chance, but it was always more like 15. Now stackables, yes, 5 usually always gave me a crit, but non-stackable items, no way.

I can't count how often I would make 15 of something pre-4.0 and wouldn't get a schematic, now I make 5 of something and I find I'm hitting on the 1st or 2nd attempt. Much much more improved without question.

 

Which makes me have to ask you, what have you done to anger the RNG-Gods?

And yet I successfully RE'd three things in a row on the first attempt yesterday.

 

Too many people around here want to pass off anecdotal evidence as empirical.

Yep, its like I never believe the 20% RE chance prior to 4.0. At 20%, I should really have had to make about 5 items to statistically get 100% chance, but it was always more like 15. Now stackables, yes, 5 usually always gave me a crit, but non-stackable items, no way.

Well I don't believe you.

 

It's not that I think you're lying or something. It's just that people always remember what they want to remember, more than what actually happened. You probably had a few tries of 15 times to get an RE, and conveniently "forget" all the times it took LESS than 5 tries.

 

Either that or you only RE'ed a few items and gave up, never giving a chance for the RE rate to even out.

 

People that whine about RNG in video games seem to be categorically incapable of actually tracking specific details, in writing, providing a solid analysis.

Well I don't believe you.

 

It's not that I think you're lying or something. It's just that people always remember what they want to remember, more than what actually happened. You probably had a few tries of 15 times to get an RE, and conveniently "forget" all the times it took LESS than 5 tries.

 

Either that or you only RE'ed a few items and gave up, never giving a chance for the RE rate to even out.

 

People that whine about RNG in video games seem to be categorically incapable of actually tracking specific details, in writing, providing a solid analysis.

 

It's called confirmation bias and happens with a lot of things.

Yep, its like I never believe the 20% RE chance prior to 4.0. At 20%, I should really have had to make about 5 items to statistically get 100% chance, but it was always more like 15. Now stackables, yes, 5 usually always gave me a crit, but non-stackable items, no way.

 

Your math is SOOOOO WRONG. In the past statistically speaking you were more likely to fail seven times in a row as you were to succeed. 20.97% vs 20%

 

20% chance in ANYTHING not just RE, does not and has NEVER equated to "do something five times and you will succeed once"

Your math is SOOOOO WRONG. In the past statistically speaking you were more likely to fail seven times in a row as you were to succeed. 20.97% vs 20%

 

20% chance in ANYTHING not just RE, does not and has NEVER equated to "do something five times and you will succeed once"

 

But you have to admit 15+ tries is a bit on the high side of the RNG, and I did fall on the bad side of that more often than I could count. In fact I can remember only a few occasions where I got it in 3 or less, not true anymore though since the change. I've been on the very good side of the RNG-Gods to be sure.

But you have to admit 15+ tries is a bit on the high side of the RNG, and I did fall on the bad side of that more often than I could count. In fact I can remember only a few occasions where I got it in 3 or less, not true anymore though since the change. I've been on the very good side of the RNG-Gods to be sure.

It is, but when I was tracking mission results last year (which also had a 20% chance), I had multiple runs of 15 missions in a row without a crit, and a few that were more than 25 times in a row without a crit.

 

Despite that, the average was ~19% (1000 missions tracked).

Edited November 9, 2015 by Khevar

I had multiple instances of getting 3 or more(at least once I got 5) RE successes in a row, at the old 20% chance. And under the new 60% chance I had something like 15 successes in a row, followed by 7 failures in a row. Random number generator is random.

 

Confirmation bias is especially bad for RE'ing(especially the 4.0 system, with only one possible result for a success), because once you succeed you don't need to try any more. So you spend less time succeeding than you do failing, so the failures "weigh" more in your perception of events.

RE always make me a little sweaty. Was RE'ing a 220 relic for the guild yesterday and had to do get out the lucky comp, spin around, before hitting RE. Got it but still that rush though XD

RE always make me a little sweaty. Was RE'ing a 220 relic for the guild yesterday and had to do get out the lucky comp, spin around, before hitting RE. Got it but still that rush though XD

 

I thought the token gear was 100% chance?

I'm having no trouble getting items to RE. But I can't actually craft the advanced recipes I learn because something is borked with the crit rate and I almost never get crits when running missions for crafting materials.

Yep, its like I never believe the 20% RE chance prior to 4.0. At 20%, I should really have had to make about 5 items to statistically get 100% chance, but it was always more like 15. Now stackables, yes, 5 usually always gave me a crit, but non-stackable items, no way.

 

that's not how statistic work, friend.

I'm am doing great with the RE. I have done quite a few re and while I may not get it every time I normally get it on the second try.

There's an expression in Roulette which applies here, "the ball has no memory" You have 38 numbers 0 and 00 and 1-36, just because you spun and got 20 on the last roll doesn't mean you won't also roll 20 again, because, the ball has no memory. So too if 31 hasn't been hit in the last 500 spins, it's an outlier perhaps, but not a big deal, because of course, the ball has no memory... 31 hasn't hit in 500 spins, that doesn't mean it's "Due" to hit.

60% is 60%... you still have a 40% chance to fail every time which is still a pretty high rate. I've not noticed much of a difference between now and pre 4.0 honestly but I didn't really expect much to begin with because it's a random chance.

60% is 60%... you still have a 40% chance to fail every time which is still a pretty high rate. I've not noticed much of a difference between now and pre 4.0 honestly but I didn't really expect much to begin with because it's a random chance.

 

First try, 1 in 5 chance, 20%, second try, also 1 in 5 chance, 20%... point being it doesn't go up based on how many previous attempts you've made.

Since we're talking about it, I would just like to complain that I've failed three RE 216 hilts now. I understand that a 6.4% (unless my statistics knowledge totally wrong) of me failing all three times does happen, but I wish it didn't.

 

Oh please great RNG gods, what have I done to anger you?

Edited November 11, 2015 by ZeroOutcome

Since we're talking about it, I would just like to complain that I've failed three RE 216 hilts now. I understand that a 6.4% (unless my statistics knowledge totally wrong) of me failing all three times does happen, but I wish it didn't.

 

Oh please great RNG gods, what have I done to anger you?

 

For complaining in the first place ....KIDDING

 

BTW you math is correct: <percentage chance of failure> to the <number of failures> power (40%^3=6.4%)

For complaining in the first place ....KIDDING

 

I'm half tempted to RE the 216 hilt have in my offhand, just so if it fails then I can complain about only having a 2.6% of failing this four different times.

Since we're talking about it, I would just like to complain that I've failed three RE 216 hilts now. I understand that a 6.4% (unless my statistics knowledge totally wrong) of me failing all three times does happen, but I wish it didn't.

 

Oh please great RNG gods, what have I done to anger you?

 

It's totally wrong. A 20% chance of success means an 80% chance of failure. The chance of three failures is thus (0.8)^3, which is 0.512, or 51.2%. You'd need to fail 12 times in a row to [close to] have only a 6.4% chance of failure.

Edited November 11, 2015 by eartharioch

It's totally wrong. A 20% chance of success means an 80% chance of failure. The chance of three failures is thus (0.8)^3, which is 0.512, or 51.2%. You'd need to fail 12 times in a row to [close to] have only a 6.4% chance of failure.

 

Except that the new RE chance is 60%, not 20%.

Except that the new RE chance is 60%, not 20%.

 

There is no "new" RE chance...most new blue schematics have a 60% RE rate, but some have 100%, and at least one (a grenade) had a 20% rate. I haven't RE'd any crystal/ops gear, so I don't know what the base chance for those are, and the poster didn't say what the listed RE% was -- he didn't quote anything, so I based my answer off the post above his which was using 20%.

 

But yes, if he had a 60% RE chance, 6.4% would be the chance of failing 3x in a row.

 

That said, since we are dealing with math, his calculation of 6.4% was incorrect because he didn't show his work

But yes, if he had a 60% RE chance, 6.4% would be the chance of failing 3x in a row.

 

That said, since we are dealing with math, his calculation of 6.4% was incorrect because he didn't show his work

 

This is why I'm simultaneously both good at math and bad at math.