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Timed weekly needs to be renamed to GSF weekly

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
Timed weekly needs to be renamed to GSF weekly
First BioWare Post First BioWare Post

xJediRyanx's Avatar


xJediRyanx
05.21.2019 , 04:45 PM | #31
Quote: Originally Posted by sdom View Post
A child could code their first script to selectively choose a number between 1 - 5.
The answer to executing this script 5 times could have been: 1.2.3.4.5
This in no way indicates the choice made by the script is random.
As it is a script called once with no memory or recognition of its own output.
The truth of the matter is the probability to get each result is an even split.

20% for 1
20% for 2 and so on.

Its when the child becomes an adult and returns to this script with enough perspective to recognise this philosophy, that allows them to develop a method of achieving the same result with more effective code.

Your devs say this is random?
Well I say fire them because it doesn't seem like that the result is the same as the implimentation, and if they're still trying to tell you otherwise, then they're incompotent.
I asked my 3 year-old to write out a line of code to choose a number between 1 and 5. He couldn't do it. I'm thinking of giving him up for adoption.
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DarthSpuds's Avatar


DarthSpuds
05.21.2019 , 04:59 PM | #32
Quote: Originally Posted by EricMusco View Post
Hey all,

I double checked with the team and it is not a bug, it was just that the 1 in 4 chance pulled GSF 3 weeks in a row (not the best if you aren't a GSF fan). We did verify though that next week is not GSF.

Thanks all!

-eric
How did you verify that if it is a genuinely random 1 in 4 chance?

Sounds to me like Bioware choose what the weekly is and someone just forgot to change it, because you guys don't play the game we do,

All The Best
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sdom's Avatar


sdom
05.21.2019 , 05:07 PM | #33
Quote: Originally Posted by xJediRyanx View Post
I asked my 3 year-old to write out a line of code to choose a number between 1 and 5. He couldn't do it. I'm thinking of giving him up for adoption.
Obviously the problems not your three year old its you.
Technology work is one of the most profitable job industries in the world and also paramount to know for digital security.
There are plenty of toys, for example:
https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/31/th...1CSloGH1-nKfSw

Keeping in with the star wars theme, the little bits programmable R2-D2. Something you could build together, and instead of raising a completely average joe only special to you, you can be parent to a child earning 150k USD a year + for AI development, who is critical to the worlds infrastructure, with the right inspiration.

Of course all this would need you to care about your child and the face of the threat landscape that will most certainly impact their adult life, but obviously thats out the question since you're considering adoption.
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xJediRyanx's Avatar


xJediRyanx
05.21.2019 , 05:33 PM | #34
Quote: Originally Posted by sdom View Post
Obviously the problems not your three year old its you.
Technology work is one of the most profitable job industries in the world and also paramount to know for digital security.
There are plenty of toys, for example:
https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/31/th...1CSloGH1-nKfSw .
You must be really fun at parties.
I'd put a link here for you to click on, but my link is missing granny.

TUXs's Avatar


TUXs
05.21.2019 , 06:27 PM | #35
Quote: Originally Posted by EricMusco View Post
Hey all,

I double checked with the team and it is not a bug, it was just that the 1 in 4 chance pulled GSF 3 weeks in a row (not the best if you aren't a GSF fan). We did verify though that next week is not GSF.

Thanks all!

-eric
GSF needs to be removed from this. This was ridiculous Eric.
All warfare is based on deception If his forces are united, separate them If you are far from the enemy, make him believe you are near A leader leads by example not by force
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phalczen's Avatar


phalczen
05.21.2019 , 06:34 PM | #36
Quote: Originally Posted by Benirons View Post
Sure, except for the fact not everyone, like u it seems, has been around since ossus gear launch. Anything i miss out on is sorely missed cause ive been back a few weeks personally. 4 months is a long time, might as well have said there is no reason to gear ever, cause there will be another expansion with a new lvl cap, eventually.
Well, you only need gear high enough for you to complete content you like at a difficulty level comfortable for you. For some people, myself included, achieving the highest possible gear rating, best-in-slot configuration for my toons is part of the power progression. In as much as I'm always trying to improve to the best of my ability, reaching BiS is part of the game's content, for me. I'm sure it is for others, too. Just as for many others its not, and 258 gear is way, way overkill for KOTFE/KOTET chapters (even MM), Eternal Championship, planetary heroics, and other solo-focused content.

If you are an "exclusive" pvp'er, perhaps you are concerned that your lack of effectiveness is due to the gear difference, and not your rustiness from your break from the game. I would submit to you that getting rating 240 augments is a far more useful investment in terms of your pvp effectiveness than the difference between bolstered 252 and 258, except for the mainhand and offhand. Mathematically, the increase in stat budget relative to units of the prized Charged Matter Transubstantiator, the crafting material used in making both 236/240 augments and 258 gear, is in favor of the 236 augment by like ten times. In other words, you'll see far more difference in dps/healing from upgrading 228 augments to at least 236, than you will from the difference between bolster 252 and 258. You don't even need to set foot on Ossus to get the stuff you need for 236 augments. Then Bolster according to Hottie's guides and get the 252 mainhand from the One-time Flesh and Steel world boss mission on Ossus. You will be at like 97-98% of the stat budget of someone in 258 gear.

If you're not an exclusive pvp'er, and you don't do Master Mode Gods from the Machine, then you are in luck. You can easily complete the content on Ossus with a gear rating around 240. I know this because the one thing galactic command is still good for is getting set bonus gear for alternate disciplines. So, in the time since 5.10, I've been able to build not only the primary set for the main discipline but an off set. This is from a combination of twinking from alts, saving item modifications instead of replacing them, and 246-rated crafted left side stuff. I've tanked the world bosses with 244 average item rating, no problem. Furthermore, even if you want to do hard mode content or MM of anything less than GotM, all that stuff was balanced around 242 gear.

Quote: Originally Posted by EricMusco View Post
Hey all,

I double checked with the team and it is not a bug, it was just that the 1 in 4 chance pulled GSF 3 weeks in a row (not the best if you aren't a GSF fan). We did verify though that next week is not GSF.

Thanks all!

-eric
The probability of that happening is 0.25^3, which is about a 1.5% chance of occurring.

Quote: Originally Posted by TUXs View Post
GSF needs to be removed from this. This was ridiculous Eric.
Removing it isn't ridiculous. Would you, or anyone, be saying this if the outcome had been "Earn 8 medals in a single unranked warzone that you don't even need to stay till the end for" three weeks in a row? You and I both know the answer to that, TUX.

Keeping some sort of log so that you don't get duplicates two weeks in a row isn't unreasonable, and changing 3 wins to something else like GSF medals or completed matches isn't unreasonable either, but removing it simply because you don't like it is what's ridiculous TUX
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spatnatz's Avatar


spatnatz
05.21.2019 , 07:27 PM | #37
Before I get into all this, let me say that I am just as disgruntled as the rest of you... not only about getting 3 GSFs in a row, but about the bad design of the weekly quests in general. The time required for some of them is definitely not reasonable.

Consider this: There are 4 weekly quests to pick from. Each week, a quest has a 1 in 4 chance of being selected. Therefore the chance of a given week being GSF is 1/4 or 25%.

Suppose the week immediately after was also selected as GSF. So that becomes a probability of (1/4) * (1/4) = 1/16, or 0.0625%.

And you guessed it... the third week? That's (1/4) * (1/4) * (1/4) = 1/64 , or a 1.56% chance. Let's interpret this statistically... This means that, given 64 3-week "sets" of timed weeklies, we can expect one of those to have all 3 GSF.

This seems like a very low chance, to be sure. However, what about the probability of the first week being GSF, the second week being PVP, and the 3rd week being operations? The calculations for this would be exactly the same, resulting in a 1/64 chance for this particular event as well. So all that really means is that there are 64 possible configurations for any 3-week set of events, each with an equal probability of occurring (if we assume they are in a specific order).

So, while this event may seem unique, it is no less unique than any other event. It just happens to stick out like a sore thumb because it's repeating something three times. (A simpler example: Same probability for rolling three 1's in a row, as it is for rolling 1, 2, 3 in order on a standard 6-face die)

All that said... it does seem a bit fishy that we had (to my recollection) 2 PvP weeks in a row, followed by 2 MM weeks in a row, followed by 3 GSF weeks in a row. Let's ignore the 3rd gsf week for just a moment. I can say for a fact (you're welcome to check my work on this) that the chances of getting any given event twice in a row, and to then have that repetition happen *three* times in a row, is also 1/64. And this is for each 6-week period... meaning that the probability of this happening more than once in a 384-week period is even smaller. So we'd better not see something like 2 pvp, 2 MM, and 2 GSF anytime soon, or I'm calling bananas on this.

TL;DR:

Yes, the GSF weekly 3x happened by random chance, but it's a pretty small one and not any less likely than any other 3 combinations of events.

Getting two events in a row three times in succession (ignoring the third repetition of GSF) is definitely more of a statistical anomaly, and we'd hope not to see something like this anytime soon if the system is truly random, as BW claims it is.


If I got anything wrong in my analysis, feel free to correct. Thanks for reading...

phalczen's Avatar


phalczen
05.21.2019 , 07:39 PM | #38
I bet the system is "rolling" the timed weeklies at the beginning of a patch cycle, and not at the start of every week. i.e. the timed weeklies were determined when 5.10.2 launched and for the intervening weeks between then and when they expected to launch 5.10.3. I bet that's why when patches are delayed things like conquest get screwed up. It would also explain why the dev team was able to "look up" what next week's timed weekly will be.
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JediBoadicea's Avatar


JediBoadicea
05.21.2019 , 09:19 PM | #39
Quote: Originally Posted by EricMusco View Post
Hey all,

I double checked with the team and it is not a bug, it was just that the 1 in 4 chance pulled GSF 3 weeks in a row (not the best if you aren't a GSF fan). We did verify though that next week is not GSF.

Thanks all!

-eric
I actually really do like GSF, but this feels a little silly. More specifically, I think it's a little silly to have made an option of only 4 activities random. That's a low number of activities, not like rolling against a loot table of 10-30+ items. I can't help but feel that it would make more sense to just set the four missions on a fixed rotating schedule, one after the other. Not only do you avoid a fluke RNG instance like this one that makes some people unhappy, but it would also allow guilds to plan more carefully for activities around it. That keeps the difficulty barrier evened out as well, preventing multiple super easy 8 medals in a row just as much as it prevents multiple Ops in a row.

spatnatz's Avatar


spatnatz
05.21.2019 , 09:25 PM | #40
Quote: Originally Posted by EricMusco View Post
Hey all,

I double checked with the team and it is not a bug, it was just that the 1 in 4 chance pulled GSF 3 weeks in a row (not the best if you aren't a GSF fan). We did verify though that next week is not GSF.

Thanks all!

-eric

Quote: Originally Posted by JediBoadicea View Post
I actually really do like GSF, but this feels a little silly. More specifically, I think it's a little silly to have made an option of only 4 activities random. That's a low number of activities, not like rolling against a loot table of 10-30+ items. I can't help but feel that it would make more sense to just set the four missions on a fixed rotating schedule, one after the other. Not only do you avoid a fluke RNG instance like this one that makes some people unhappy, but it would also allow guilds to plan more carefully for activities around it. That keeps the difficulty barrier evened out as well, preventing multiple super easy 8 medals in a row just as much as it prevents multiple Ops in a row.
I agree.. it's not "the best", regardless of whether you are a GSF fan or not. When even the hardcore GSFers are unhappy, we've got a problem.

Clearly no one would complain if it was 3 pvp weeks in a row... so the root of the issue really has to do with the time required on the quests. If all quests took reasonable (and hopefully somewhat similar) amounts of time , then this thread would not exist even if GSF was 8 weeks in a row.

Devs should also keep in mind that GSF only pops around certain times of the day/week, while pvp pops more or less 24/7.