We were having a discussion about the MMO genre in another thread, but it got deleted for other reasons. I think it's an interesting one to have, so maybe those folks want to rejoin it here.

 

I was saying that I didn't think there were many gamers out there left for TOR to snag, and I thought the game's subs would decline from here on out. Someone remarked that WoW grew over many years, and I made the point that the market was just different then - younger and less saturated.

 

Basically, most people who would be inclined to pick up and play TOR have already done so. Sure there are new/young gamers out there who could be drawn in, but the majority of people who would likely play a game like (Bioware fans, MMO fans, Star Wars fans, general gamers) have either heard about the game, had a friend play, seen a video on youtube, etc., and they've made their choice to play or not to play. Considering how long it's been hyped up, I just don't see many "undecideds" still out there.

 

I think that the game will lose 200-400k subs this month, which would still put them at a healthy 1.5+ million. But I definitely believe this game is done growing.

The game has been out for 3 weeks.

The game will have a BIG decline on the 20th, will it grow afterwards? Doubtful. Edited January 16, 2012 by Papazooki

The game has been out for 3 weeks.

 

People have been playing for one month and three days. Plus, what exactly is your point? Did you read my post?

The game will continue to sell units, of course, but in order to grow it has to sell those units faster than existing players unsubscribe. I doubt that will be the case. MMO's don't keep selling huge volumes of units after the first month, but they do start losing tens-of-thousands of subscribers.

 

(WoW being the ONE exception to that rule.)

Edited January 16, 2012 by Mannic

People have been playing for one month and three days. Plus, what exactly is your point? Did you read my post?

 

What he means is that the game is stil selling very well and hence continueing to grow. The gaming market is not a zero sum game.

Edited January 16, 2012 by MrTijger

They posted 2 million sales the other day.

Warhammer sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

 

Age of Conan sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

 

Star Trek Online sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

 

TOR will follow.

Well a lot of people im sure skip MMO's when they are brand new for obvious reasons, and a lot of people will leave but then come back. The amount of variables that go into player base is too much. This MMO could end up with 10 million or 100,000 depending on those numberous variables.

What he means is that the game is stil selling very well and hence continueing to grow.

 

Ah, you know my post in the other thread touched on that, and I didn't write it out here.

 

TOR purchases have declined sharply after the first two weeks. I had a link to a site with numbers, but I can't find it right now... Essentially everyone bought the game Pre-order or within the first two weeks. Since then, there have hardly been any sales, comparatively.

 

Basically, as is predictable, everyone who was likely to play the game heard about it and made their decision one way or the other. There aren't many people left who are undecided.

 

First impressions are everything in mmo's. This game is probably doomed due to releasing too early. When will these companies ever learn.

The game will have a BIG decline on the 20th, will it grow afterwards? Doubtful.

 

They did something right. Even the people who say they don't like the game can't move on to anything else and keep posting about SWTOR.

Warhammer sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

 

Age of Conan sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

 

Star Trek Online sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

 

TOR will follow.

 

Right, and this doesn't mean that TOR will fail, but it shows how the market works.

 

It takes a GREAT game to actually keep growing after release, since everyone in the gamer community knows about these monster games so far ahead of time. There just aren't any MORE people who don't know about it.

Honestly come the 20th they will lose a massive amount of subs.

 

Then in about 3 months they will lose even more to tera, (mainly pvper's that know what tera is).

 

Then later this year the rest that aren't total 100% into swtor will drift off to play GW2 when its released.

Warhammer sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

 

Age of Conan sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

 

Star Trek Online sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

 

TOR will follow.

 

By that logic..

 

 

Wow sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great right?

 

Call of duty sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great right?

 

Swtor sold a lot of units opening week.

 

Tor will follow.

 

By the logic..

Edited January 16, 2012 by djsmileey

Does anyone know how many subs those others MMOs had right after launch? Did any of them reach 2 mil like TOR did?

 

I'm trying to find a precedent, since I do believe that TOR will be on decline from now on.

It takes a GREAT game to actually keep growing after release, since everyone in the gamer community knows about these monster games so far ahead of time. There just aren't any MORE people who don't know about it.

 

Word of mouth means a lot. We have a number of new people still joining our guild being friends of people playing the game. A lot of them are new to MMO's and we still have more coming. I'd say assumption are usually not a good thing to make/

They did something right. Even the people who say they don't like the game can't move on to anything else and keep posting about SWTOR.

 

You can say that after the 20th. I believe TOR will lose upwards of 300k subs in a few days. And then, if they haven't fixed the combat responsiveness, another 1-200k the next month.

 

This stills leaves a mighty large playerbase, don't get me wrong. TOR will do fine. It's just done GROWING.

They will retain their star wars fan base and maybe even sci fi fans that are desperate for a sci fi mmo. It will be reduced to a niche game and recorded as the biggest flop in mmo history that even Vanguard couldn't rival.

 

Ah, you know my post in the other thread touched on that, and I didn't write it out here.

 

TOR purchases have declined sharply after the first two weeks. I had a link to a site with numbers, but I can't find it right now... Essentially everyone bought the game Pre-order or within the first two weeks. Since then, there have hardly been any sales, comparatively.

 

Basically, as is predictable, everyone who was likely to play the game heard about it and made their decision one way or the other. There aren't many people left who are undecided.

 

 

Well, every market analyst seems to think they'll sell 3 million by end of January, we'll see but I think your premise is faulty, the market is much bigger but on the other hand, 1.5 million? Sounds pretty decent to me.x

 

Either way, I dont really careas long as I can play until I dont enjoy it anymore, my self esteeem isnt tied into a game I play.

Edited January 16, 2012 by MrTijger

By that logic..

 

 

Wow sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great right?

 

Call of duty sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great right?

 

Swtor sold a lot of units opening week.

 

Tor will follow.

 

By the logic..

 

Your denial is showing. WoW is an outlier as far as MMOs go and Call of Duty isn't even an MMO.

 

Quote me if you like: TOR is just a more expensive Warhammer. The Titanic has set sail again but under a different name.

Does anyone know how many subs those others MMOs had right after launch? Did any of them reach 2 mil like TOR did?

 

I'm trying to find a precedent, since I do believe that TOR will be on decline from now on.

 

Tor had a huge opening sale due to it launching at christmas and it is starwars from bioware.

 

That is where their large sales come from.

 

However that means nothing once people actually get in game and experience the problems and the community.

 

Further more will they be able to retaind subs on a dated game engine with bad customer service when the new gen mmo's hit this year? I am guessing probably not.

 

They will maintain a loyal but small fanbase like every failed mmo out there does.

They did something right. Even the people who say they don't like the game can't move on to anything else and keep posting about SWTOR.

 

Bioware plus Star Wars IP was doing something right.

 

In all due respect this happens in every MMORPG, people act like hating an mmo is new.

Edited January 16, 2012 by Ryzerion

You can say that after the 20th. I believe TOR will lose upwards of 300k subs in a few days. And then, if they haven't fixed the combat responsiveness, another 1-200k the next month.

 

This stills leaves a mighty large playerbase, don't get me wrong. TOR will do fine. It's just done GROWING.

 

 

where did you get your figures of 300k in a few days and 1-200k next month....just asking.....

You would like growth, and I think it will, but what you really want is consistency. Every MMO has people quit everyday but new subs and resubs take the place of those who quit. Look at WOW, people have been quitting that game for years but new or old blood comes in to take their place. I also do not agree that anyone who had any interest would have already bought the game, those that had extreme interest have already bought the game and that is it.