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buggy the critical rates


LucifersDrache

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there is a big bug in you random generator. I found this out by testing it with the crew skills facility since more than two weeks now.

1) the 80% crit skill rate (the 75% too!) isn't reached in real game - average rate is 60% at best!

 

2) the deconstructor tells the same: I deconstructed more than 50 advanced kyrpax shield adrenal now, at last 14 in a row some minutes ago. With the 5% chance I should get the new schematic more than two times, statistically. Guess it? haven't even got it once ...

 

If can not programm a uniform distribution, you should implement a counter, so that you get such schmeatic at least after the double amount of deconstructions. Same can be done for crafting skills in similar way

 

very frustrated by the enormous waste of unsuccessful time

Jens

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there is a big bug in you random generator. I found this out by testing it with the crew skills facility since more than two weeks now.

1) the 80% crit skill rate (the 75% too!) isn't reached in real game - average rate is 60% at best!

 

2) the deconstructor tells the same: I deconstructed more than 50 advanced kyrpax shield adrenal now, at last 14 in a row some minutes ago. With the 5% chance I should get the new schematic more than two times, statistically. Guess it? haven't even got it once ...

 

If can not programm a uniform distribution, you should implement a counter, so that you get such schmeatic at least after the double amount of deconstructions. Same can be done for crafting skills in similar way

 

very frustrated by the enormous waste of unsuccessful time

Jens

 

The RNG is working fine. It's not a cumulative %. Each time you deconstruct 1 item for the next schematic it is has the same % chance. In your example of Deconstructing Advanced Kyrpax shield adrenals, each time you deconstruct 1 you have a 5% chance. So Deconstruct one grouping at a time (when I mean deconstruct one grouping at a time, I mean for Adrenals I think you need 4 adrenals to even deconstruct it once). Deconstructing 14 won't give you a 70% chance, just a 5% for each one.

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A 5% chance doesn't mean you get it once for every 20 attempts. It's a 5% chance for every single roll.

 

What can be done, though, is calculating the statistical probability of failing x times in a row, since there is a correlation between the rolls (you wouldn't roll again if you had already succeeded). And that's all we need - we need to succeed once to learn a schematic.

 

At 5% chance of success you have a 95% chance of failure, each attempt multiplies that with 95% again, so the chance of 20 failures in a row is 0.95^20 = 36%.

 

In case of the 100 adrenals, you need to consider that each attempt needs 4 adrenals, so there is still a 0.95^25 = 28% chance of not getting the schematic when deconstructing 100 adrenals. That's almost 6 times more likely than succeeding.

 

232 adrenals / 58 rolls is the point where success is just as likely as another failure. That's still too high to make any assertions about RNG quality - only when you have enough rolls so the chance for successive failures is considerably lower than the chance for success you can argue that the rolls might be rigged.

Edited by Mubrak
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A 5% chance doesn't mean you get it once for every 20 attempts. It's a 5% chance for every single roll.

(...)

At 5% chance of success you have a 95% chance of failure, each attempt multiplies that with 95% again, so the chance of 20 failures in a row is 0.95^20 = 36%.

(...)

 

I know about the basics .. to say it with your words :

I had more tahn 100 rolls -> 0.95^100 = 0,0059... means 0,5% ...

and now just make a guess how long it took to craft the items .. not discussing the dredits here too ;-/

I think thats really frustrating , not only for me ;-)

 

so, yes, no bug, but not the best option to operate with random generator only.

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I know about the basics .. to say it with your words :

I had more tahn 100 rolls -> 0.95^100 = 0,0059... means 0,5% ...

 

Did you decon 400 adrenals (=100 rolls) or 100 adrenals (=25 rolls)?

 

With 400 adrenals, succeeding once is 10 times more likely than failing all 100 rolls, So yes, something's fishy.

With 100 adrenals, not getting the schematic is still 5-6 times more likely than succeeding.

 

I think thats really frustrating , not only for me ;-)

 

so, yes, no bug, but not the best option to operate with random generator only.

 

Agreed. A 5% chance is ridiculous. It's not worth the trouble; if you want the reusables for yourself, just buy them from someone who was lucky (or more patient), they earned those credits.

Edited by Mubrak
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Something is fishy, since all this based on chance can't really prove anything.

But right now critical chances are less than what it used to be, You can simply understand if you are getting way less crits.

 

Moreover i have a guess for the reason, i don't know if it is useful for developers:

 

On crew skills window(defaults B) my 46 level Nadia has "+69.0% Critical rate for crew skill tasks".

On Companions&Contacts window(defaults N) i can click Nadia, and on right top side there is an Influence bar. When i mouseover the bar, it says "+23% Critical rate for crew skill tasks."

I realized this UI bug when patch 6.2 hit for the first time, Didn't really checked before.

 

So there is obviously something wrong. Which might possibly related to this critical chance drop feeling.

 

Since there is obvious visual bug, it may have effect on calculations as well. It might be a good starting point/pointer for troubleshooting the problem we "feel". Again we simply feel it because can't simply prove numerical bug when there is RNG involved.

 

Edit: some typos

Edit2: I would like to have a confirmation or two if your companions shows different numbers on those windows as well, if possible.

Edited by Harkagon
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Same here.

Level 50: Companion window: 75% time efficiency and 25% crit / Crafting window: 75% efiiciency and 75% crit

Level 31: Companion window: 46.5% efficiency and 15.5% crit / Crafting window: 46.5% efiiciency and 46.0% crit

 

Seems like the crafting window shows the rounded time efficiency instead of the actual crit rate.

 

The critical rate has no influence on success, though. it just means that when you succeed you have that chance of getting double the items, or in case of gear pieces a free augmentation slot.

Edited by Mubrak
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Something is fishy, since all this based on chance can't really prove anything.

But right now critical chances are less than what it used to be, You can simply understand if you are getting way less crits.

 

Moreover i have a guess for the reason, i don't know if it is useful for developers:

 

On crew skills window(defaults B) my 46 level Nadia has "+69.0% Critical rate for crew skill tasks".

On Companions&Contacts window(defaults N) i can click Nadia, and on right top side there is an Influence bar. When i mouseover the bar, it says "+23% Critical rate for crew skill tasks."

I realized this UI bug when patch 6.2 hit for the first time, Didn't really checked before.

 

So there is obviously something wrong. Which might possibly related to this critical chance drop feeling.

 

Since there is obvious visual bug, it may have effect on calculations as well. It might be a good starting point/pointer for troubleshooting the problem we "feel". Again we simply feel it because can't simply prove numerical bug when there is RNG involved.

 

Edit: some typos

Edit2: I would like to have a confirmation or two if your companions shows different numbers on those windows as well, if possible.

 

Companions don't get a 75% crit rate. They get a +75% efficiency. Efficiency speeds up the time it takes to craft.

Companions get a +25% chance to crit at rank 50.

Edited by Toraak
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Companions don't get a 75% crit rate. They get a +75% efficiency. Efficiency speeds up the time it takes to craft.

Companions get a +25% chance to crit at rank 50.

 

I didn't really speak about efficiency at all. Just told my observations about crit rate texts. They don't match each other and one of them is wrong.

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I didn't really speak about efficiency at all. Just told my observations about crit rate texts. They don't match each other and one of them is wrong.

 

then if they don't match it's a typo;.

 

Companions at rank 50 get a +25% crit chance. I usually crit around 30-40% on my rank 50 companions when crafting.

This of course won't change the Deconstruct % for getting higher schematics. That is a flat % depending on the schem your attempting to get.

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Companions don't get a 75% crit rate. They get a +75% efficiency. Efficiency speeds up the time it takes to craft.

Companions get a +25% chance to crit at rank 50.

 

Sorry, but I can't admit - when I open the crew skill window, and than open a crafting window for the 50 companion, you can read:

 

75% time efficiency for crew skill tasks

80% critical rate for crew skill tasks

 

So there IS a critical rate AND a efficiency rate ...

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I RE about 200 (set of 4) Proficiency Stims no luck. I just gave up. Over 10 million credits down the drain.

 

That's awful. I wasted 10 mil just trying to RE a 274 gear piece. So it sucks. BIO seems to love it since they keep doubling down on Credit and time sink changes. They have made crafting virtually useless except to those who have way too much credits and ALTs that can spend a billion credits unlocking schematics to then make billions more on GTN.

 

They could do so much to improve Crafting...but they won't. Crafting doesn't make them money.

 

When is the last time they even commented on crafting?

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then if they don't match it's a typo;.

 

Companions at rank 50 get a +25% crit chance. I usually crit around 30-40% on my rank 50 companions when crafting.

This of course won't change the Deconstruct % for getting higher schematics. That is a flat % depending on the schem your attempting to get.

 

It's clearly wrong as my 50 says 75% chance for both on crew screen...

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