I'm tired of lottery boxes in MMO cash shops. They're obviously cash grabs (Specially these "deals" with the 24 packs in them. Who do you think you're fooling?), and they do a decent job at it. But you know what would make you even more money in the long term? Taking everything out of those boxes and selling them separately for varying prices. I'd gladly open my wallet to pay for more things if I didn't have to sit there and worry about "Hmm... I wonder how many paychecks I will have to spend to get the item I want -THIS- time." Yes, I can buy them from the GTM later... but how exactly does that make you money? Answer: It doesn't. The end result is you'll just be selling less and less of these things as time goes on (ultimately resulting in even more pissed off people when they either can't get the things they want on the GTM, or the prices are so ridiculously high because they are in such high demand)

No, all you do with lottery boxes is make a little bit of money in the short term, and piss a whole bunch of people off in the process (I'm not even going to bother mentioning this whole debacle with the rep. You know what you did).

So, in summation, please, pretty please with a cherry on top... I'm begging you to stop with the lottery boxes. You're just pushing people away day by day trying to make money on things that you'd make -far- more money on if you just put them out there on their own... and you'd make everyone so much happier.

Thank you.

I'm tired of lottery boxes in MMO cash shops. They're obviously cash grabs (Specially these "deals" with the 24 packs in them. Who do you think you're fooling?), and they do a decent job at it. But you know what would make you even more money in the long term? Taking everything out of those boxes and selling them separately for varying prices. I'd gladly open my wallet to pay for more things if I didn't have to sit there and worry about "Hmm... I wonder how many paychecks I will have to spend to get the item I want -THIS- time." Yes, I can buy them from the GTM later... but how exactly does that make you money? Answer: It doesn't. The end result is you'll just be selling less and less of these things as time goes on (ultimately resulting in even more pissed off people when they either can't get the things they want on the GTM, or the prices are so ridiculously high because they are in such high demand)

 

No, all you do with lottery boxes is make a little bit of money in the short term, and piss a whole bunch of people off in the process (I'm not even going to bother mentioning this whole debacle with the rep. You know what you did).

 

So, in summation, please, pretty please with a cherry on top... I'm begging you to stop with the lottery boxes. You're just pushing people away day by day trying to make money on things that you'd make -far- more money on if you just put them out there on their own... and you'd make everyone so much happier.

 

Thank you.

They keep the server hamsters fed.

Cry more.

They keep the server hamsters fed.

 

Cry more.

The hamsters would be eating better than you if they followed my suggestion. Troll more

You believe something that is convenient to your desires. Do you have anything more substantial than belief to persuade Bioware that they'd make more by abandoning cartel packs?

It's simple business. The lottery works because people do it in hopes of profit. Lottery boxes have absolutely nothing to do with profit, it's all about items that you, personally, want. Very few going to blindly spend wads of cash on coins more than once and get burned constantly, when they could purchase coins constantly, buying the items they want time and time again without fear that they are wasting their money.

This isn't supposed to be a RL investment, where you can be burned because you put your money in the wrong stock. It's supposed to be entertainment, vanity. Angry people buy less and tend to go elsewhere to some other game.

I'm not going to quit the game because their money grabbing efforts are ineffective, I'm just not going to pay them money. That's the entire point of this thread. I want to be happy. I want them to make money. Where's the negative?

As a great man once put it.. SHUT UP AND TAKE MY MONEY

You believe something that is convenient to your desires. Do you have anything more substantial than belief to persuade Bioware that they'd make more by abandoning cartel packs?

People have different preferences over risk. some loves it and some hates it. Treating customers to be homogeneous over risk preference, when in reality is far from truth, is bound to produce a sub-optimal profit making mechanism. It's basic mechanism design stuff...

Bioware would most likely increase its income from Cartel Market if it provides prizes with certainty equivalences i.e. 2000 cartel coins for an item instead of gambling for it with a box. The key is to optimally prize the certainty equivalences with the appropriate cartel coin prices. But they can easily tease out some of customers' current preferences using the data from GTN.

You make several assertions about people's purchasing behavior, do you have anything to back this up?

Ever wonder why some people buy insurance and some don't?

Ever wonder why some people buy insurance and some don't?

I can only assume you're taking some low level econ course. The cartel pack system is substantially different from the extremely simplified models being presented to you. Not only are the odds entirely unknown to the purchaser, but they likely do not even intend to sell to people trying to make that kind of analysis. The Cartel Market is aimed at the impulse buyer, and cartel packs, to be frank, at people with addictive tendencies.

*EDIT

They most likely have analysts who perform quantitative analysis on sales figures. That particular economic theory does not actually come up a whole lot in the real world.

People have different preferences over risk. some loves it and some hates it. Treating customers to be homogeneous over risk preference, when in reality is far from truth, is bound to produce a sub-optimal profit making mechanism. It's basic mechanism design stuff...

 

Bioware would most likely increase its income from Cartel Market if it provides prizes with certainty equivalences i.e. 2000 cartel coins for an item instead of gambling for it with a box. The key is to optimally prize the certainty equivalences with the appropriate cartel coin prices. But they can easily tease out some of customers' current preferences using the data from GTN.

Precisely

Even at lower cartel coin costs, they would still make much larger profits because more people would be comfortable in buying the coins knowing they will get what they paid for.

Precisely

 

Even at lower cartel coin costs, they would still make much larger profits because more people would be comfortable in buying the coins knowing they will get what they paid for.

Some people would, sure. But you have no data to suggest that this outweighs the loss.

I can only assume you're taking some low level econ course. The cartel pack system is substantially different from the extremely simplified models being presented to you. Not only are the odds entirely unknown to the purchaser, but they likely do not even intend to sell to people trying to make that kind of analysis. The Cartel Market is aimed at the impulse buyer, and cartel packs, to be frank, at people with addictive tendencies.

 

*EDIT

 

They most likely have analysts who perform quantitative analysis on sales figures. That particular economic theory does not actually come up a whole lot in the real world.

I bolded this section for emphasis. It's precisely for this reason that lottery boxes are ineffective in the long term, and ultimately don't satisfy the majority of people (aside from gambling junkies). Impulse buys have nothing to do with lottery boxes. If you put that awesome skiff mount (or the throne, or the hoverbucket etc)by itself in the cartel market... it would sell like hotcakes, much like the pod racer does now, just as a small example.

Some people would, sure. But you have no data to suggest that this outweighs the loss.

That data would be impossible to gather, much like passing a law to deter crime IRL and trying to gauge how much that particular law then deterred crime other than guesses. Therefore, it's not worth discussing the notion of such data.

I bolded this section for emphasis. It's precisely for this reason that lottery boxes are ineffective in the long term, and ultimately don't satisfy the majority of people (aside from gambling junkies). Impulse buys have nothing to do with lottery boxes. If you put that awesome skiff mount (or the throne, or the hoverbucket etc)by itself in the cartel market... it would sell like hotcakes, much like the pod racer does now, just as a small example.

They don't need to satisfy the majority. Most purchases in cash shops for MMOs are typically made by 5-10% of the population. Either way, what you're trying to do is convince Bioware/EA's analysts that they have come to incorrect conclusions with the data they have available(which you have no access to to support your suppositions). So far, you have not mentioned anything that wouldn't have been discussed as a matter of course.

Also, "What if I get lucky?" buys and "Its only $4 buys" constitute impulse buys.

I can only assume you're taking some low level econ course. The cartel pack system is substantially different from the extremely simplified models being presented to you. Not only are the odds entirely unknown to the purchaser, but they likely do not even intend to sell to people trying to make that kind of analysis. The Cartel Market is aimed at the impulse buyer, and cartel packs, to be frank, at people with addictive tendencies.

 

*EDIT

 

They most likely have analysts who perform quantitative analysis on sales figures. That particular economic theory does not actually come up a whole lot in the real world.

No, what I have said doesn't need require the customer to have perfect knowledge of the odds. In fact, the whole point behind these mechanism design is to maximize revenue when the customers have no full information on true state of the game.

Tbh, I don't know how you are able to conclude the intended and realised target market is populated mainly by impulse buyers. It's really a more disturbing assumption than those used in the economic models which you seem to ridicule.

Just from my own personal data observation, I know tons of people who would gladly calculate the odds and love to indulge themselves with "fluff" from the CM.

The asymmetry of information goes both ways. Bioware don't have perfect knowledge of its customer's preferences. Threads like these transmit information for Bioware to make informed decision on whether to implement these "certainty equivalences". Data, from GTN, at most can just help price the goods appropriately, conditional on certainty equivalence is implemented.

That data would be impossible to gather, much like passing a law to deter crime IRL and trying to gauge how much that particular law then deterred crime other than guesses. Therefore, it's not worth discussing the notion of such data.

This data is collected by companies when they sell products. Their analysts are relying on a combination of internally collected data, and information on past performance with similar products.

They don't need to satisfy the majority. Most purchases in cash shops for MMOs are typically made by 5-10% of the population. Either way, what you're trying to do is convince Bioware/EA's analysts that they have come to incorrect conclusions with the data they have available(which you have no access to to support your suppositions). So far, you have not mentioned anything that wouldn't have been discussed as a matter of course.

 

Also, "What if I get lucky?" buys and "Its only $4 buys" constitute impulse buys.

Ever heard of selection bias? The current existing risk can effectively screen out potential buyers. The Cartel Market data is silent about them. With the data process not perfectly matched to the real potential market, it's not surprising these analysts would draw up incorrect conclusions.

No, what I have said doesn't need require the customer to have perfect knowledge of the odds. In fact, the whole point behind these mechanism design is to maximize revenue when the customers have no full information on true state of the game.

 

Tbh, I don't know how you are able to conclude the intended and realised target market is populated mainly by impulse buyers. It's really a more disturbing assumption than those used in the economic models which you seem to ridicule.

 

Just from my own personal data observation, I know tons of people who would gladly calculate the odds and love to indulge themselves with "fluff" from the CM.

 

The asymmetry of information goes both ways. Bioware don't have perfect knowledge of its customer's preferences. Threads like these transmit information for Bioware to make informed decision on whether to implement these "certainty equivalences". Data, from GTN, at most can just help price the goods appropriately, conditional on certainty equivalence is implemented.

I am not ridiculing your economic models. They however, are for conceptual understanding. They are, for that reason, highly simplified, and ignore a lot of factors to communicate these concepts.

Their announced target market is impulse buyers. Per their statement. They already have set price goods available on the CM.

You are making assumptions about how their customers will react when advocating a model shift without data.

Ever heard of selection bias? The current existing risk can effectively screen out potential buyers. The Cartel Market data is silent about them. With the data process not perfectly matched to the real potential market, it's not surprising these analysts would draw up incorrect conclusions.

The irony of you speaking of selection bias after suggesting a forum thread is a useful source of data on customer preferences.

Cash shops are not new to video games. There are games that do not have chance box type items, or did not always have them. TOR's analysts have this data available to them. You're not suggesting anything dramatic, radical, or new. You're talking about things they would already be aware of. Moreover, you're doing so blind.

Their announced target market is impulse buyers. Per their statement.

Do you have a link to this statement?

They already have set price goods available on the CM.

Think I am missing the point here. Please explain what you are trying to convey here?

You are making assumptions about how their customers will react when advocating a model shift without data.

Making assumptions is not a "bad" thing. Any possible technical analysis of customer behaviour essentially relies on some sort of assumption if you want predictions. The whole point is whether such assumption is plausible.

To get the results I mentioned above, you simply need people to have different risk preferences, more tending to risk averse, and their real world budget constraint is greater than the real termed in game credit constraint.

Do you have a link to this statement?

 

 

Think I am missing the point here. Please explain what you are trying to convey here?

 

 

 

Making assumptions is not a "bad" thing. Any possible technical analysis of customer behaviour essentially relies on some sort of assumption if you want predictions. The whole point is whether such assumption is plausible.

To get the results I mentioned above, you simply need people to have different risk preferences, more tending to risk averse, and their real world budget constraint is greater than the real termed in game credit constraint.

No, though its around the time of the CM's release.

The set price goods are the certain ones. There are items in the cartel packs that can also be purchased at a set price.

A. You're assuming you know better than their marketing analyst, who probably has a degree in the directly relevant field rather than a degree in economics(or as seems to be the case here, studying to get a degree in economics), despite not having access to the data they do.

B. You're assuming(for some unknown reason), that they aren't able to reasonably estimate the best pricing strategy. It won't be perfect, but it'll be pretty good.

C. You also seem to be assuming that it will be possible to capture a greater portion of the market without substantially reducing the revenue from the existing portion. This assumption you have made without any data to support it.

The irony of you speaking of selection bias after suggesting a forum thread is a useful source of data on customer preferences.

Biased data can still be useful provided you understand the bias' effect on the data generating process. By construction of the problem, lack of certainty equivalence implies Bioware data mainly don't appropriately capture customers' behaviour with low tolerance of risk. These threads gives Bioware a glimpse into the missing market.

Cash shops are not new to video games. There are games that do not have chance box type items, or did not always have them. TOR's analysts have this data available to them. You're not suggesting anything dramatic, radical, or new. You're talking about things they would already be aware of. Moreover, you're doing so blind.

You don't need ground breaking stuff to improve many existing systems. They might be aware of the problem but they can't assess the missing market without these types of threads. Hence they can't make conditionally optimal decision without these information.

Statistical inference, at its best, is just a process of educated and consistent guesses. Its analysis can't trump implication brought real information/realisations.