uggg, 64 bucks, and Bad Luck.

Thanks DOHBoy. I still don't see how what you just described, or how the LLN, increases the odds of winning after repeated previous failures. I understand what you're trying to say, but, I haven't seen any evidence supporting it in what you've provided. I"ll look at it some more later. I've enjoyed our exchange!

Sorry, but I have a hard time believing that you only received two leggings and gloves as far as armor out of 27 packs. I got double that much armor in 3 packs. Buying packs to open and re-sell items isn't very wise. I have only anecdotal evidence of this but it seems like hypercrates contain a lot of duplicate items...so you either do really well or really bad when opening the packs from the crates. Every time a pack is released, there's some forum thread about "I spent X number of dollars and didn't ____ item". Fill in the blank. Not gonna find any sympathy around here for people who continue to do that sort of thing. If you want the "fun" of the luck of the draw, then you shouldn't whine when luck doesn't go your way.

it doesn't increase the odds, the odds of the independent events are still the same. Keep it simple think of dice.

What are the odds of rolling a 6 on any roll (1/6) -> independent event.

what are the odds that you will roll a 6 on your 10th roll (1/6)
what are the odds you will roll a 6 on your 100000 roll (1/6)

given 10 rolls what are the odds you rolled a 6 at least ONCE (or will roll a 6 given 10 rolls) ? (1-.8^10) = 89.3%
given 100 rolls what are the odds you have rolled a 6 at least ONCE (or WILL roll a 6 given 100 tries)
(1-.8^100) = 99.999998%

What are the odds that you will NEVER roll at 6 given 100 rolls of a dice .000000002% not zero.

Im going to say it over and over and over again....


If you want some item in particular, you are better off BUYING IT OFF THE GTN MARKET THEN PURCHASING BOXES TO OPEN.


IF your aim is to get it cheap as possible.



But, if you like to gamble, then by all means continue to buy packs. There's nothing wrong with that. The chances suck ***, but theres a 'thrill' when opening it. To each his own


Personally, ive purchased five boxes of this pack. Nothing........The last Club pack I purchases to hypercrates. Ended up with Tulak Hord helmet x3 and 2x chestpiece..../shrug

It is true that the coin does not know that it was heads last time. The reason people say it is "due for a tails" is because most people understand that if you flip a coin 10 times, it is very unlikely to come up heads 10 times in a row.

You are correct, the odds of each event is fixed, but the odds of hitting it once over many chances do go up.

It is almost impossible to flip a coin 100 times and get 100 heads in a row. Give it a try, sooner or later you'll do it, but you likely won't live that long, even if that is all you did all day.

27 packs is about $55. I assure you that 14 years ago I would have been happy to avoid that experience for $55. For ten times that number, or more, it would be easy.

Until you've had a gun pointed at you by someone willing to pull the trigger, you don't know what you're talking about.

You don't have to agree, but I am correct. This isn't an opinion, this is just a fact of the universe, like the size of the Earth, it really isn't in dispute.

You're confusing the odds per pack with the overall odds of getting one of X period. Yes, the odds per pack are 1%, which means the odds are 99% that I won't get it. Open 100 packs and the 99% odds that I won't get X drop a lot.

Open 1,000 packs and I'm almost guaranteed to get 1 of X. I "should" get 10 but it could be 5 or it could be 15. Technically it could be 0, but that is very unlikely.

Open 1,000,000 packs and the odds of not getting a single X are just about zero. In fact, open 1,000,000 packs and you'll get really close to 10,000 of X.

Nonsense, the whole idea is the fun of the dice roll. Don't like it, don't gamble.

If everyone was given a Rancor tomorrow, they would no longer be special and few would care.

Want a Rancor for sure? Buy one off the GTN.

We're both right. 1% means 1%, not 5% or 50%. Yes, it's an average based on probabilities, and there's a chance you might get more, and you might get less! But saying you'd get much more than 1 of x out of a 100 packs when the odds are 1% is just, well, wrong. Sorry.

nobody said anything even approaching that.

what we said was opening more packs decreases the odds that you WONT receive it. aka your chances of receiving at least one of those things increases the more packs you open. It is a fundamental law of the universe.

The issue with the packs is there are multiple items with the same rarity. Think of it this way, each pack gives you a chance of winning a jackpot, the jackpot will be one of 4 prizes. You need to hit a LOT of jackpots (or get very lucky) to get ALL jackpots. You don't have to play many to hit ANY jackpot but to hit a specific jackpot will take time. the odds of NOT hitting a specific jackpot are pretty low if you have enough "attempts".