uggg, 64 bucks, and Bad Luck.

I would say is more like a 0.0000000000000000000000000000001% chance

I find it amusing that you're incorrect.

The odds for each pack themselves do not change, but your total odds do go up slightly as you open more and more packs.

Opening one or two hypercrates? Not a big difference. Opening 10 or 20 hypercrates? Yea, the odds actually get decent at that point.

What people don't understand is that while buying two lotto tickets does technically double your chances to win, it doesn't change the total odds enough to matter. Buy a million lotto tickets and the odds get interesting.

Buy enough hypercrates and the odds do improve overall.

Gear is different than vanity items.
You NEED gear. You WANT vanity items.
RNG is never a good idea, but it's a lucrative one. And since the PVP gear was already being paid for by our subscription and we needed it (much more than you need PVP gear today) to be able to play the game, they couldn't obviously charge extra for it. RNG for vanity items, on the other hand, is a genius idea.

It keeps popular items relatively rare, it makes people want to have them and the fleet is not flooded with people who look the same way or have the exact same mount.

I don't understand why people don't seem to be able to comprehend the above. You don't have to agree with RNG, you just have to ask yourself why would a company not make their most cool-looking items available for direct purchase.

You can disagree all you like, you're wrong. Math does not lie.

If you opened 1,000 packs and the drop rate for X is 1%, it is unlikely that you would not receive one. This does not mean you'll get 10 of them, you might get 2 or you might get 20.

Look up the law of large numbers, odds do even out over time. Open one million packs and the drop rate will just about exactly match the number of packs opened times the drop rate. Open one million packs and the above 1% drop rate will generate close to 10,000 of X, plus or minus a small number.

I'm not a math wizard, but I think you basically said no matter how many packs you open, the rate will always be 1% (1,000,000 packs open/10,000 rare items received = 1%). Which, is the same thing as saying the odds don't increase with the number of crates you open.

If you open 1000 packs and the drop rate is 1%, the chance of any *single* pack dropping the item is 1%. As a whole, your chance of getting the item is (100%-(chance of not getting the item)^(number of packs).)

So (1-.99^1000) = 99.9957% you will get the item with a 1% rate out of 1000 packs. So, you're wrong by a lot.

Edit: Think of it this way. You flip a coin, the odds are 50/50 you get heads. If you say you are going to flip 4 coins, what are the odds that they will all be heads? Not 50%!

We're talking apples & oranges. Of course if you open a million packs, you likely will get an item that has a 1% drop rate. That doesn't change the fact that each time you open a single pack, your odds are 1%.

When you open the first pack, your odds are 1%. When you open the millionth pack, your odds are 1%.

no odds are fixed you have an x% chance of an event occurring at each instance (in this case opening a pack). Each new event DECREASES the odds of it NOT occurring, which is similar to increasing odds of you finding it.

as an example you have a 1% chance of finding an item each pack you open offers a fixed 1% chance.

so you have a 99% chance of not finding it. open 2 packs and odds of not finding it are now (100-1)^2
open 1000 packs and your odds of not finding an item are (100-1)^1000 about a 0.00004

so even though each event is independent, over a large number of tries your "odds" increase given the large number of unique chances.

Think of it this way with less math...chance of rolling a 6 on a dice is 1/6 how many times do you need to roll the dice before you roll a 6? well after 20 rolls you have about a 97.4% chance of having rolled a 6 (meaning less than a 3% chance of having NOT rolled a 6). after 100 rolls you have numbers approaching essentially zero having not rolled it (1.2 x10^-8) .

Tharbison, yeah, I see what you're saying. I actually didn't read carefully enough and thought I was responding to that AlienEyeTX guy from further up who said the chance of getting something doesn't increase if you buy more packs, which is wrong.

In any case, I agree with the people saying it's better to sell the packs on the GTN and buy the item you want directly if you are looking for anything specific. Personally, I've never bought a pack because I don't do gambling, but my Cybertech sales have always been enough to get any of the items off the GTN once they are listed.

Whats 1% chance in 1? whats 1% chance in 1,000?