Strategy to the Casino Event! Don't lose your money!

STAR WARS: The Old Republic
Strategy to the Casino Event! Don't lose your money!

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NobleSpec

06.11.2014 , 12:25 PM \| #41	Quote
Quote: Originally Posted by NobleSpec I'm not gonna argue about statistics, once again. I'm saying it will help y'all to follow what me and my guild mates did in my edited post. It worked, maybe it won't get you the rancor, .09 chance, but it will get you something, it's a cheaper way. I'm just saying it worked for me and my guild mates, if y'all don't want to try it then okay, I was just trying to help y'all out, I'll do it again today. I'm just saying based on what we did, 50 smuggler tokens = 7-10 KP tokens...call it random, call it luck, but to me it's a proven average. A average I look at. 5 of us got the same result, no one got under 7. That's not "luck" I'm Out! Peace

DOHboy

06.11.2014 , 12:26 PM \| #42	Quote
Quote: Originally Posted by NobleSpec I'm not gonna argue about statistics, once again. I'm saying it will help y'all to follow what me and my guild mates did in my edited post. It worked, maybe it won't get you the rancor, .09 chance, but it will get you something, it's a cheaper way. I can not disagree with this statement. play random game, click it a large number of times, you will get something. it may or may not be a rancor but .09% of the time it will be. Yup 1 billion times agree, absolutely nothing wrong with that statements tl;dr play random event long enough get random amount of random things

DOHboy

06.11.2014 , 12:33 PM \| #43	Quote
Quote: Originally Posted by NobleSpec I'm just saying it worked for me and my guild mates, if y'all don't want to try it then okay, I was just trying to help y'all out, I'll do it again today. I'm just saying based on what we did, 50 smuggler tokens = 7-10 KP tokens...call it random, call it luck, but to me it's a proven average. A average I look at. 5 of us got the same result, no one got under 7. That's not "luck" I'm Out! Peace so basically you are saying you played a game of random events and turned out to be average. cool story bro

Unien

06.11.2014 , 12:55 PM \| #44	Quote
Ok, I'll give my statistics so you can do more calcs... 55 Smuggler's used 5 Kingpin's earned 0 rewards won Walks away with his money

DOHboy

06.11.2014 , 12:56 PM \| #45	Quote
Quote: Originally Posted by Unien Ok, I'll give my statistics so you can do more calcs... 55 Smuggler's used 5 Kingpin's earned 0 rewards won Walks away with his money welcome to average

Malastare

06.11.2014 , 02:05 PM \| #46	Quote
Quote: Originally Posted by NobleSpec I'm just saying it worked for me and my guild mates, if y'all don't want to try it then okay, I was just trying to help y'all out, I'll do it again today. I'm just saying based on what we did, 50 smuggler tokens = 7-10 KP tokens...call it random, call it luck, but to me it's a proven average. A average I look at. 5 of us got the same result, no one got under 7. The point you're missing is that your result is random. Random behavior will generate that. Why does it matter that it's random? Because once we know its random we can make a number of important conclusions: - The chance scales linearly. If 50 smuggler tokens yields 8 KP tokens, then 100 smuggler tokens yields 16 KP tokens. Just as importantly: 10 smuggler tokens yields a decent chance at 1 KP token. - Success does not change the odds. If I play two smuggler tokens and get two KP tokens, the chance of getting 8 KP tokens with the next 50 smuggler tokens is the same. Corollary: Failure does not change the odds. If I play 50 smuggler tokens and somehow fail to get a single KP token, the odds of getting 8 KP tokens with the next 50 tokens is the same. - Situation does not affect the outcome. The number of tokens you have doesn't matter. How fast you click doesn't matter. The location or duration of the click doesn't matter. The amount of time between plays doesn't matter. The raw number of plays doesn't matter. These might seem like silly things to take note of, but they are what make the game fair and virtually impossible to exploit. Ignoring all that: The 50 smuggler : 8 KP tokens is close to the ratio noted by a number of other people. It wasn't new, and no one was really taking issue with that. People were taking issue with you appearing to claim that this was a set ratio and that clicking faster had any impact on the results.

skyminor

06.16.2014 , 10:25 AM \| #47	Quote
I followed your strategy, bought 50 smugglers. From that I got 9 kingpins and 1 certificate. Then on the 4th kingpin I won the rancor, thank you!!!!

TheSeventhJedi

06.16.2014 , 12:06 PM \| #48	Quote
I decided to follow this "strategy", and wouldn't you know it? I won the rancor. Did I win it because of your strategy? No. That's a wonderful logical fallacy that your OP falls into called "Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc" (after this, therefore, because of this.) It's more commonly referred to as the "false cause fallacy." Basically, just because something happens after something, doesn't mean the two somethings have a cause/effect relationship. There's a great baseline test for this: test the "cause" and test the "effect." Does the cause ever happen without the effect? Well, you yourself admitted that there was deviation among your group, and that not everyone won the rancor. Others have noted that putting in enough smugglers tokens is GOING to net you some kp tokens, that's just basic stats. (FYI, I came out of 50 smuggler tokens with only 4 kp tokens - something you said shouldn't happen, and definitely couldn't get me the rancor by your strategy.) Now we test the effect. Does the effect ever happen without the cause? I was on NS day one, and gen chat was spammed with "I just won the rancor!" The chance of each and every one of these winners, or even a majority of them, following your strat is essentially nil. For starters, you hadn't posted it yet - so that's a dead giveaway right there. Even if the cause and effect both pass muster (which yours don't,) passing those tests is only a sign that it's ready for more in-depth testing. Since your strat doesn't pass, it's essentially a lucky penny. It has no more basis on the outcome of winning than someone who picks a lucky machine, gambles with a lucky pet out, or swears their alt wins more than their main. tl:dr It was nice of you to try and help, but your logic is, well, I'll let Dr. Cox do it.
Click for free things, please: http://www.swtor.com/r/GlscnB (It's a referral link - whether you're a new or returning member, you'll get all sorts of goodies!)

Sataju

06.30.2014 , 05:06 PM \| #49	Quote
that makes no sense...i spent like 1mil on smug tokens in total, and on one occasion i had FIFTY(50) Kingpin Tokens, used them all, and got some gold certs. The time before, used 20 Kingpins and got the speeder, but STILL...NO MOUNT...***.

JidaiDerriphan

06.30.2014 , 05:18 PM \| #50	Quote
Quote: Originally Posted by NobleSpec I went through a couple of things I thought about and looked it up online, the thing about the casino is that its based on set chances based on percentages per result. I went through it my first time and bought...about 15 smuggler tokens...and throughout all of them I ended up with about 3-4 kingpin tokens yeah? I would then go to the kingpin slot machine and attempt to try with those 3-4 tokens. Nothing. It's all about the % and ratio of average. A lot of people lose patience and buy the 50k kingpin token. Then their broke. Now here's how you do it, cheapest and faster. Like I said it's about the average result based on those percentages, because thankful for us it's not randomized percentages, it's set. I noticed I got 3-4 KP tokens per 20 smugglers, that's a estimate and can average out lower or higher. No matter how long you go till you run out of smugglers luck tokens. So...you do this, spend about 50k on 50 smuggler tokens...then go to the smuggler slot machine and rapidly select it..based on the average results and the constant ratio, you will receive 7-10 kingpin tokens...Id say 8 is the basic average. Then with those 7-10 tokens go to the KP slot, and rapidly press it. Your chances to win something have greatly increased because it's based on set %. Despite going up with 4. Plus having the Smugglers Luck buff helps. I tested my theory, I actually got 9 KP tokens out of 50 smug tokens, plus a golden certificate. I went to the KP slot and won 2 certificates, and the rancor. My first time, after 50k. It's about the avg percentage based on the set percentage then referred to your personal ratio. May the chances be in your favor. EDIT: I'm sorry if I rambled, as you can guess this whole deal is hard to explain. Short Version: Based on the percentages "swtor mined" on Reddit collected, the percentages are indeed fixed and confirmed, in a fair way of course. My theory is based on a experiment of 5 of my guild mates. 5 of them bought 50 smuggler tokens...3 recieved 9 tokens after they ran out. The other 2 recieved 8. These percentages have developed an average, now.. The 5 of them went to KP slot...each one recieved a certificate, and two recieved speeders. I'm not saying you will get rancor like I did. The percentage is .09 percent ( Reddit posted). Dulfy had this is exact strategy posted June 9th http://dulfy.net/2014/06/09/swtor-fe...r-event-guide/
My Refer a Friend link: Http://www.swtor.com/r/fhKgVR 7 Days of FREE subscription, a FREE Character Transfer, and Box of goodies (that includes a free inventory row) you'll receive via in-game mail on ALL of your characters!

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