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Reverse Engineering is not 20%

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering is not 20%

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
03.21.2014 , 02:18 AM | #141
Quote: Originally Posted by midianlord View Post
OP needs to learn how basic probability works.

2/10 chance =/= guaranteed 2 successes in 10 trials.

That is all.
While there are people in this thread that have basic confusions on the subject of probability, the OP (Darth_Sweets) is certainly not one of them.

He used a type of statistical analysis called a confidence interval, and performed sophisticated math analyzing his raw data. The only disagreement I had with his analysis was the sample size, not his methods or understanding of probability.

Either you didn't actually read the OP, or you didn't understand what he was saying.

AlrikFassbauer's Avatar


AlrikFassbauer
03.21.2014 , 07:03 AM | #142
I don't care much about it anymore.
I rather see it as an lottery nowadays.
“ Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius – and a lot of courage – to move in the opposite direction.“ (E.F.Schumacher, Economist, Source)

MaximilianPower's Avatar


MaximilianPower
03.21.2014 , 08:04 AM | #143
Quote: Originally Posted by Khevar View Post
While there are people in this thread that have basic confusions on the subject of probability, the OP (Darth_Sweets) is certainly not one of them.

He used a type of statistical analysis called a confidence interval, and performed sophisticated math analyzing his raw data. The only disagreement I had with his analysis was the sample size, not his methods or understanding of probability.

Either you didn't actually read the OP, or you didn't understand what he was saying.
While I agree with your general point (perhaps the poster you replied to was referring to another contributor in this thread) - the bolded is a pretty huge problem. OP stated it's "almost impossible that the 20 percent is the true rate of getting a new plan" which is patently ridiculous based on the extremely limited data. I don't care how sophisticated his methods are (I agree he does seem to have a good grasp of the tools involved), but sample size is such a critical factor here that I can't really blame anyone for assuming OP has some gaps in his understanding of probability.

No offense @OP - go ahead and run another few thousand trials, and re-run your analysis. Then we'll talk.
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midianlord's Avatar


midianlord
03.22.2014 , 01:08 PM | #144
I did, and i got that re-- confidence interval (although I wonder how strictly relevant that is given his much-too-small sample size? Yeah, my Stats-training was a loong time ago now, so maybe I'm forgetting something.)

And yeah, "three-sigma rule," as someone else mentioned, but again, how valid is even that given the extremely small sample size in this case?

More --much more-- data needed.

E:

To continue from the poster above me: OP should feel free to run several thousand more trials, and get all their friends to do so, and get all their friends to do so, then post those results.
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Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
03.22.2014 , 01:39 PM | #145
Quote: Originally Posted by midianlord View Post
I did, and i got that re-- confidence interval (although I wonder how strictly relevant that is given his much-too-small sample size? Yeah, my Stats-training was a loong time ago now, so maybe I'm forgetting something.)
The basic problem in his argument was this statement:
Quote: Originally Posted by Darth_Sweets View Post
Actually the confidence interval test is valid with almost any sample size since, the tightness of the bounds will change with the number of samples used.

georgemattson's Avatar


georgemattson
03.24.2014 , 02:10 PM | #146
Hey - I ended up getting 0 for about 20 just now. Must mean that RE is broken.

Oh wait... it could also mean I was multi-tasking (posting on Facebook, reading the forums, and playing SWTOR on a 2nd screen), not paying attention whatsoever, and didn't notice the "no research available." D'oh! Luckily it wasn't anything expensive.
Meh. Liking Age of Conan again...

Hoshkar's Avatar


Hoshkar
03.24.2014 , 04:56 PM | #147
Far as I can tell it is just a 20% of something happening. Not a 20% chance of happening, there for after 5 times it should = 100% sort of thing. Each time it is just a straight up 20% chance.


That and RNG hates some people more then others
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Dak_fireraker's Avatar


Dak_fireraker
03.27.2014 , 09:25 AM | #148
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoshkar View Post
Far as I can tell it is just a 20% of something happening. Not a 20% chance of happening, there for after 5 times it should = 100% sort of thing. Each time it is just a straight up 20% chance.


That and RNG hates some people more then others
^^ This

RNG is also temperamental like my 4 yr old son. Case in point, My Armormech had Re'd 24 (i kept the 25th one cuz it was augmented & I needed to upgrade my gear) Overkill Heavy Exoskeleton Belts w/o getting a single purple schematic. However, she RE'd 5 Overkill Heavy Exoskeleton Gloves & got 2 Purples from it.
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HelinCarnate's Avatar


HelinCarnate
03.28.2014 , 06:17 PM | #149
RE's 24 items, got 11 crits. You are right. That is no where near 20%

Update : 39 items 18 crits
Now up to 68 REs and 21 crits. OMG ONLY 3 CRITS OUT OF THE LAST 29 THE SYSTEM IS BROKEN!!!!
-But still the overall rate since I started tracking is 30.88% for me. I have a hunch I know what is causing the issue with those with lower numbers but it will take several more days of research and RE attempts with different types of items.
Dear BW,
Please nerf paper and buff rock. Scissors is fine as is.
Signed, Rock.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
03.28.2014 , 09:34 PM | #150
Quote: Originally Posted by HelinCarnate View Post
RE's 24 items, got 11 crits. You are right. That is no where near 20%
Just remember that streak the next time you go 0 for a lot