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Reverse Engineering is not 20%

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering is not 20%

nGAGE's Avatar


nGAGE
03.06.2014 , 06:46 AM | #131
Found this topic kind of interesting, so I wrote a (very simple) little console app to run some RNGs over x-number of samples within a given range to see average hits and determine how spot-on RNGs would be.
It's pretty unlucky to hit anywhere below 15%, even with only 300 samples. But any good number of samples (1K to 10K for example) with a default RNG gets pretty spot on the 20%. Only small sample numbers and a tight range of random values to sample from can cause those extremes below 15% or above 25%.

NOTE: I have occasionally spotted absurd gaps though. Once had a gap of 69 fails before I got a hit, but it's rare. Still, gaps of 20-40 are quite common.

One thing that did bother me during all these discussions here though (and I'm not sure if this is applicable), but didn't anybody consider the fact that crafting with companions could influence the outcome, as some companions are more likely to succeed with certain skills than others? Resulting quality of an item is something that can greatly influence the numbers and is something one simply can't test with just RNGing, without knowing what the real code does to factor in those companion stats. Or doesn't the quality of a crafted item not influence the chances during RE? (maybe I'm just misunderstanding those things)
If it does, wouldn't it be a matter of other factors influencing the formula, rather than of RNG?

If the quality of an item is irrelevant, the test at the very least shows how larger sample numbers and ranges indicate solid RNG average hit results.

PS: Please excuse if I get terminologies wrong. Not really a math guy and most of the time don't really care about the inner workings of stats that much,... usually.

Quick video capture of a few runs: watch/download

psandak's Avatar


psandak
03.06.2014 , 09:11 AM | #132
Companions have no impact on reverse engineering other than creating a extra unit through a crit.

When trying to learn schematics, getting two of something (item modifications, and biochem consumables) creates a scenario where the chance of getting a schematic is now 36% rather than 20% (20%^2=36%), because you now have two attempts rather than one. Critically succeeding at crafting a piece of gear - that results in an augment slot being added to that gear - has no impact on RE. In fact there is a thread suggesting that augmented items should have a higher RE chance. I cannot say I disagree with the suggestion but the implementation is probably not nearly as simple as the OP of that thread thinks/suggests.

StrikePrice's Avatar


StrikePrice
03.17.2014 , 10:01 PM | #133
Quote: Originally Posted by nGAGE View Post
Found this topic kind of interesting, so I wrote a (very simple) little console app to run some RNGs over x-number of samples within a given range to see average hits and determine how spot-on RNGs would be.
It's pretty unlucky to hit anywhere below 15%, even with only 300 samples. But any good number of samples (1K to 10K for example) with a default RNG gets pretty spot on the 20%. Only small sample numbers and a tight range of random values to sample from can cause those extremes below 15% or above 25%.

NOTE: I have occasionally spotted absurd gaps though. Once had a gap of 69 fails before I got a hit, but it's rare. Still, gaps of 20-40 are quite common.

One thing that did bother me during all these discussions here though (and I'm not sure if this is applicable), but didn't anybody consider the fact that crafting with companions could influence the outcome, as some companions are more likely to succeed with certain skills than others? Resulting quality of an item is something that can greatly influence the numbers and is something one simply can't test with just RNGing, without knowing what the real code does to factor in those companion stats. Or doesn't the quality of a crafted item not influence the chances during RE? (maybe I'm just misunderstanding those things)
If it does, wouldn't it be a matter of other factors influencing the formula, rather than of RNG?

If the quality of an item is irrelevant, the test at the very least shows how larger sample numbers and ranges indicate solid RNG average hit results.

PS: Please excuse if I get terminologies wrong. Not really a math guy and most of the time don't really care about the inner workings of stats that much,... usually.

Quick video capture of a few runs: watch/download
Cool video. What you're not counting are the win streaks. For example look at the win stream at 2:44 at 9796. You hit 5 in a row and 8 out of 10. Curious, anyone here ever pop 5 in a row REs? How about 8 out of 10?

psandak's Avatar


psandak
03.18.2014 , 07:44 AM | #134
Quote: Originally Posted by StrikePrice View Post
Cool video. What you're not counting are the win streaks. For example look at the win stream at 2:44 at 9796. You hit 5 in a row and 8 out of 10. Curious, anyone here ever pop 5 in a row REs? How about 8 out of 10?
I've had many 3 of 5 and 2 in a row streaks.

But there is another human factor to consider in "win" streaks: getting a schematic but one that is not desired e.g. all the Presence purples, or Redoubt Cunning blues, or worse a player is looking for a VERY specific purple and not getting it until getting the other three or four. Many - if not most - players in those situations will emotionally consider those successes as failures.

Dak_fireraker's Avatar


Dak_fireraker
03.18.2014 , 12:29 PM | #135
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
I've had many 3 of 5 and 2 in a row streaks.

But there is another human factor to consider in "win" streaks: getting a schematic but one that is not desired e.g. all the Presence purples, or Redoubt Cunning blues, or worse a player is looking for a VERY specific purple and not getting it until getting the other three or four. Many - if not most - players in those situations will emotionally consider those successes as failures.
Though I don't consider learning any schematic as a Fail. I Agree w/ the Point Psandak is making. SolQitta my Healer is also my Armormech. I craft all of the gear that she wears so I want very specific Purples. Because I am looking for Expert/Vehemence or Endowment/Supremacy for her to wear it can seem sometimes that RE'ing is being less productive than is actually happening. In the end all you need is patience (& have a love of WZs or a 55 toon to run dailes & give you a never ending supply of credits for which to keep getting supplies to make the items to RE till you get what you are looking for).
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StrikePrice's Avatar


StrikePrice
03.19.2014 , 10:32 PM | #136
My point is if people are missing 60 in a row, someone must also be getting 10 in a row. Never happens.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
03.19.2014 , 11:10 PM | #137
Quote: Originally Posted by StrikePrice View Post
My point is if people are missing 60 in a row, someone must also be getting 10 in a row. Never happens.
Let me see if I follow your logic. You're saying:

1. The chance to fail 60 times in a row is the same chance to succeed 10 times in a row.
2. People have reported failing 60 times in a row.
3. Nobody has reported succeeding 10 times in a row.
4.Therefore, the RE chance is broken.

Is that right?

jkennaly's Avatar


jkennaly
03.20.2014 , 08:44 AM | #138
Quote: Originally Posted by StrikePrice View Post
My point is if people are missing 60 in a row, someone must also be getting 10 in a row. Never happens.
These two things are not even remotely equal.

Let's say you are starting from scratch, with no prior history. I'm also assuming we are RE'ing blues to purples, with a 10% chance of success.

You start to RE. Your chance of failing 60 times in a row, before you begin, is about 0.18%. Not very likely, but with all the players in the game we can safely assume that this happens multiple times a day. To the person is it happening to, it feels incredibly frustrating. I don't know that I have ever failed 60 times, but I know for sure I failed 50, and it was painful.

The counterpart to failing 60 times in a row is succeeding 3 times in a row, which is almost half as likely at 0.10%. I don't think I've ever had this happen, but it is again likely that every day, a few lucky souls out there hit this.

Even if you are doing RE's with a 20% success rate, it is ten times more likely that you will fail 60 times in a row than succeed 10 times in a row. The odds of these are very low (1 in a million for 60 failures, one in 10 million for 10 successes), but the failure is on the order of something that might be happening once a month or every few months.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
03.20.2014 , 03:42 PM | #139
Quote: Originally Posted by StrikePrice View Post
My point is if people are missing 60 in a row, someone must also be getting 10 in a row. Never happens.
I got five in a row two days ago, does that count

Another thread was started on this subject with the OP having a 1 for 26 bad luck streak (0 for 12, 1 success, then 0 for 13). As I was planning to level a crafting skill anyway, I decided to track my RE rate. You can view my data: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By5...it?usp=sharing

The first day, I got to 410 skill in armstech and had an RE rate of ~24% over 239 attempts, with a long streak of 14 failures on one item. Day two I got to the armstech skill to 450 but my RE rate was a lot worse: ~14% over 64 attempts with a 2 in 42 streak over four items and a single item streak of 1 in 25 (with the final attempt being a success). On day three I am still working on one schematic from day two (active streak of 0 in 16), but am slightly better overall than day two: ~16% over 38 attempts.

But in my overall RE rate is still above expected at 21.41%: 73 successes in 341 attempts. Mostly greens to blue, but some blue to purple.

midianlord's Avatar


midianlord
03.20.2014 , 06:37 PM | #140
OP needs to learn how basic probability works.

2/10 chance =/= guaranteed 2 successes in 10 trials.

That is all.
Guys/Gals, could you please start queuing for real Flashpoints again?

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