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What went wrong during April - July?

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What went wrong during April - July?
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curtkram's Avatar


curtkram
10.30.2013 , 04:01 PM | #81
Quote: Originally Posted by Vandicus View Post
If the parameters had in fact been revised upwards in September, that would suggest we were underestimating concurrents, not overestimating them. Again, this is irrelevant to your claims of falsehood and data manipulation. No one has tried to use Scorpienne's data to say anything besides the same thing we can see with the trends.

C. I don't think anyone has really disagreed on this point. The trend shows less concurrents relative to our powerful upwards trends leading up and for a short time after Makeb. Andryah has only been analyzing the trend to say that this is probably not a new strong loss streak like between 1.2 and 1.4, but rather a normalization after the excitement of f2p and the expansion.

I'm happy to debate analysis with everyone here, but I don't think anyone has been making any intentionally misleading statements of supposed fact in this thread, so I'd prefer if we didn't question each others' integrity while trying to hold a discussion.
if they moved server populations, we don't know where 'light,' 'standard,' 'heavy,' or 'full' lie. what's the point in developing statistics when you know you it's just a shot in the dark? i believe the reason scorpienne was brought into the discussion was to tie someone with integrity to a baseless claim from someone without. that behavior is just rude.

saying the population is now where it should be, and the higher population was just an temporary spike that i'm pretty sure lasted over half the year, is an excuse to defend the notion that everything is going well. the conclusion, which is to say there isn't any unanticipated drop in population, came first, the excuse was developed to defend that conclusion. the fact is, the concurrent active server population is not "normalizing," it's decreasing.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
10.30.2013 , 04:11 PM | #82
Quote: Originally Posted by DKNS View Post
I started the game around late July and since then i thought the game's population has been steadily improving. Of course, i wasn't there at launch but i still read about the **** storm that followed for over a year causing a dramatic decrease in the population. And i thought that the population i saw when i started was the one which you get after the game settles down after let's say a year after launch. Checking www.torstatus.net over the past 2 months confirmed that. But then today i found out that you can see for over upto a year on TorStatus and then i saw the huge decline the game had starting April 2013. To people who haven't seen it, here's a screenie from the site

http://i.imgur.com/LtAHTUk.jpg

So what exactly happened then? An MMO shouldn't see such an exodus almost 1.5 years after launch. Or do you guys think it was the F2P rush crowd?
I have been playing MMOs for 13+ years now and ALL of them experience the same population trends. As several others have stated, there is a distinct ebb and flow to MMO population based solely on common real life events:
  • Jan-Mar: the weather is cold the days are short, more individuals are more likely to play video games
  • Apr-Jun: Starts with spring break, college kids and even teenagers have one last hurrah before buckling down to study for finals. In addition the days are longer and the weather gets better so individuals are less likely to spend what free time they have indoors playing video games. Add to this the TV season's final sweeps and shows' season/series finales.
  • Jul-Aug: School is out, but parents tend to force their kids to go out and play. And adults are also more likely to engage in outdoor activities. But without much else to do at night at home, participation in video games trends up slightly during the workweek.
  • Sep: School is back in session and the weather is generally still pleasant. So kids are doing homework and playing outside. Parents are taking their kids, and adults are going on one last camping trip on weekends.
  • Oct-1/2Nov: Students have settled into a routine, days are getting shorter, the weather is turning colder so more kids and adults play video games in what free time they have.
  • 2/2Nov-Dec: the holiday season is upon us, not to mention Fall Semester finals. Most favor spending time with family during this time of year.

And this year do not be at all surprised when there is a marked drop in population after the holidays because the Xbox One and PS4 are coming out this Christmas.

The point is, nothing out of the ordinary happened.
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Andryah's Avatar


Andryah
10.30.2013 , 05:38 PM | #83
Quote: Originally Posted by CosmicKat View Post
Here's some "hard data" for you.

For the 8 N.A. servers to have 100k concurrent players, which is 25k below what you stated yesterday...
Except... all my comments yesterday (everyday actually) were based on 17 servers..in other words both NA and EU serves.

Why is it you keep trying to make your point on fairly absolute numbers using less then half the servers that are active? Why is that? You have been questioned on it multiple times and it has been pointed out to you multiple times.. yet you keep on doing it.

Do you have something against including the EU servers????????
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CosmicKat's Avatar


CosmicKat
10.30.2013 , 08:37 PM | #84
Quote: Originally Posted by Andryah View Post
Except... all my comments yesterday (everyday actually) were based on 17 servers..in other words both NA and EU serves.

Why is it you keep trying to make your point on fairly absolute numbers using less then half the servers that are active? Why is that? You have been questioned on it multiple times and it has been pointed out to you multiple times.. yet you keep on doing it.

Do you have something against including the EU servers????????
Right...

So. Ignore the data. Move the goalposts and... pull the xenophobe card? With bonus question marks? Everyone knows using bonus question marks or exclamation points is a sure sign of mature, reasoned discussion.

Even with 17 servers... Servers averaging something like 3k or even 5k players is a looooooong way away from totalling 125k. That's what my actual observations of actual players on actual servers indicates.

AshlaBoga's Avatar


AshlaBoga
10.30.2013 , 08:53 PM | #85
Quote: Originally Posted by CosmicKat View Post
Right...

So. Ignore the data. Move the goalposts and... pull the xenophobe card? With bonus question marks? Everyone knows using bonus question marks or exclamation points is a sure sign of mature, reasoned discussion.

Even with 17 servers... Servers averaging something like 3k or even 5k players is a looooooong way away from totalling 125k. That's what my actual observations of actual players on actual servers indicates.
17 servers with 100k?
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Stncold's Avatar


Stncold
10.30.2013 , 09:43 PM | #86
EAWare is the main and by far biggest cause of population drop, but they aren't fully to blame.

LoL is a colossal hungry monster that is eating up players from every MMO, all of them are losing players to it. I have seen a lot of people from various MMO's, TOR/WoW/TERA/GW2 you name it, quit their MMO to play LoL full-time.

WoW alone has a decent chunk of pvpers and top-end multi-glads to it in the past 2 years. Granted Blizzard is mainly to blame for that too, but still. Asian subs have dropped massively since February and I guarantee LoL is the primary culprit.
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Arkerus's Avatar


Arkerus
10.30.2013 , 09:45 PM | #87
Quote: Originally Posted by CosmicKat View Post
Right...

So. Ignore the data. Move the goalposts and... pull the xenophobe card? With bonus question marks? Everyone knows using bonus question marks or exclamation points is a sure sign of mature, reasoned discussion.

Even with 17 servers... Servers averaging something like 3k or even 5k players is a looooooong way away from totalling 125k. That's what my actual observations of actual players on actual servers indicates.
CK, no offense but you just made pretty much everything up in your previous post. It's not even verifiable data. It's just numbers on a screen.

It doesn't mean squat, to put it lightly.
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GalacticKegger's Avatar


GalacticKegger
10.30.2013 , 10:42 PM | #88
Quote: Originally Posted by znihilist View Post
That's a population trend, not a population count. It is in percentages, can you tell me what do those mean ?
Same "game is dying" troll hyperbole that's been going on since launch, they're just learning to use kinder, gentler words. Status sites don't have API access to establish accurate numbers, which relegates their numbers to best guesses.
Can we please just have our pre-KotFE SWTOR MMORPG back?

CosmicKat's Avatar


CosmicKat
10.31.2013 , 10:37 AM | #89
Quote: Originally Posted by Arkerus View Post
CK, no offense but you just made pretty much everything up in your previous post. It's not even verifiable data. It's just numbers on a screen.

It doesn't mean squat, to put it lightly.
No. I did simple math to try to determine how many people would need to be on a server for a total concurrent player average of the numbers claimed. I used the 100k, then 125k number as a guideline to show just how ludicrous some of the higher guesses would be.

What I "made up" was how the number of players might be spread around the various zones. It doesn't really matter where the people are, all that matters is the total.

The actual data I reported was from in game observations on the Ebon Hawk server. Anyone is free to log on and check it out for themselves. What those observations show is numbers nowhere even close to being enough to account for the totals claimed.

Zoom_VI's Avatar


Zoom_VI
10.31.2013 , 10:41 AM | #90
Quote: Originally Posted by znihilist View Post
That's not a proof, same data can be interpreted in two ways.
1) Heavy could mean in that case that we are higher on server load capacity
2) Or % of total accounts on the server
It still doesn't explain if it is dynamic or not.
On Jung Ma the population will be listed as standard, and there will only be one instance of pub fleet with 90 people in it. Go to the large servers and one instance of fleet has the server listed as light
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