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Bioware, do you know the PVP map cycling is an issue right now?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > PvP
Bioware, do you know the PVP map cycling is an issue right now?
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ArdoNorrin's Avatar


ArdoNorrin
04.24.2013 , 01:56 PM | #81
I think there's a huge misunderstanding about how map assignment works that is reflected in the name of this thread.

The maps don't CYCLE. That is, there is no pattern that the first match generated is, say, Voidstar, the next Civil War, then Huttball, then Novare, then Hypergates, then repeat. If that was the case, your chances of getting repeats would be significantly higher, especially if the number of simultaneous matches on your server was a multiple of 5 (essentially guaranteeing repeats). The generation of a match is random, and has ABSOLUTELY NO RELATION to the match you, or anyone else, did before.

The thing is, if you flip coins long enough, you will eventually get any number of consecutive "heads". It's a logical fallacy to believe that the next flip depends on any of the previous ones. The same thing holds for WZs: your chance of having the next pop be a Civil War has no relation to whether the previous was a Civil War. And, if you queue for enough warzones (though it may take billions), you'll eventually have a streak of 100 consecutive Civil Wars.
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TUXs's Avatar


TUXs
04.24.2013 , 02:13 PM | #82
Quote: Originally Posted by ArdoNorrin View Post
The thing is, if you flip coins long enough, you will eventually get any number of consecutive "heads". It's a logical fallacy to believe that the next flip depends on any of the previous ones. The same thing holds for WZs: your chance of having the next pop be a Civil War has no relation to whether the previous was a Civil War. And, if you queue for enough warzones (though it may take billions), you'll eventually have a streak of 100 consecutive Civil Wars.
Oh whatever lol. Read the freaking posts from players - this is an OBVIOUS issue, don't pretend we're all ******* who don't understand chance.
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Elear's Avatar


Elear
04.24.2013 , 02:29 PM | #83
Quote: Originally Posted by TUXs View Post
Oh whatever lol. Read the freaking posts from players - this is an OBVIOUS issue, don't pretend we're all ******* who don't understand chance.
Let me guess, you also complain about not getting schematic from20 RE attempts and blame it on bug?

Random is random.
God of RNG may hate you, but there is nothing BW can do about that.

JonCrow did point out that there were 35 cases of streaks of 6, but that's just it, random bad streak. For all we know, only people complaining in this thread could belong to that unlucky group of 35, while all other players had repeats within 2-3.

If you don't unterstand that this fact that you and 10 other people in this thread have bad streaks is insignificant, then there is no hope for you.

Twin's Avatar


Twin
04.24.2013 , 02:38 PM | #84
Quote: Originally Posted by ArdoNorrin View Post
I think there's a huge misunderstanding about how map assignment works that is reflected in the name of this thread.

The maps don't CYCLE. That is, there is no pattern that the first match generated is, say, Voidstar, the next Civil War, then Huttball, then Novare, then Hypergates, then repeat. If that was the case, your chances of getting repeats would be significantly higher, especially if the number of simultaneous matches on your server was a multiple of 5 (essentially guaranteeing repeats). The generation of a match is random, and has ABSOLUTELY NO RELATION to the match you, or anyone else, did before.

The thing is, if you flip coins long enough, you will eventually get any number of consecutive "heads". It's a logical fallacy to believe that the next flip depends on any of the previous ones. The same thing holds for WZs: your chance of having the next pop be a Civil War has no relation to whether the previous was a Civil War. And, if you queue for enough warzones (though it may take billions), you'll eventually have a streak of 100 consecutive Civil Wars.
Yeah, that might be so. Either way, each pvp session i see ALOT more of 1-2 warzones, compared to all the rest.
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Alizaro's Avatar


Alizaro
04.24.2013 , 02:54 PM | #85
Quote: Originally Posted by Elear View Post
Let me guess, you also complain about not getting schematic from20 RE attempts and blame it on bug?

Random is random.
God of RNG may hate you, but there is nothing BW can do about that.

JonCrow did point out that there were 35 cases of streaks of 6, but that's just it, random bad streak. For all we know, only people complaining in this thread could belong to that unlucky group of 35, while all other players had repeats within 2-3.

If you don't unterstand that this fact that you and 10 other people in this thread have bad streaks is insignificant, then there is no hope for you.
Obviously you just think this is rng but something is wrong. If bioware had the ability to just look at my warzones and how many of those were duplicate and then figure the odds of me getting that many duplicates they'd find the chances of that randomly happening are almost impossible. Their metrics may show little variance but it's also possible this is a bug that affects mainly people that queue non stop which isn't the majority by any means.
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znihilist's Avatar


znihilist
04.24.2013 , 03:08 PM | #86
Quote: Originally Posted by Alizaro View Post
Obviously you just think this is rng but something is wrong. If bioware had the ability to just look at my warzones and how many of those were duplicate and then figure the odds of me getting that many duplicates they'd find the chances of that randomly happening are almost impossible. Their metrics may show little variance but it's also possible this is a bug that affects mainly people that queue non stop which isn't the majority by any means.
You keep forgetting that even if the probability is doesn't mean it will not happen. Seeing how large the number of WZs going on, law of large numbers will tell us that those improbable events will most probably happen.
It is one in a hundred million chance that you win the lottery (maybe even less probable ?), yet every month or so you hear about someone who won it. Do you get it now ?
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ML_DoubleTap's Avatar


ML_DoubleTap
04.24.2013 , 03:08 PM | #87
I have the day off tomorrow and will likely be playing most of that time. This thread has me interested enough to track the WZs I get. The small sample doesn't mean much, but I'm assuming I'll find it's not as bad as everyone is making it sound. My guess is that because this thread is here people are more aware when they get a couple in a row and exaggerate the issue.
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EricMusco's Avatar


EricMusco
04.24.2013 , 03:18 PM | #88 This is the last staff post in this thread.  
Quote: Originally Posted by RyanReagan View Post
So what you're saying is. You didn't bother to have someone queue up for an hour to tell you that yes, it is broken.

reminds me of a joke:
A mathematician, a physicist and a statistician went hunting for deer. When they chanced upon one buck lounging about, the mathematician fired first, missing the buck's nose by a few inches. The physicist then tried his hand, and missed the tail by a wee bit. The statistician started jumping up and down saying "We got him! We got him!"
We are definitely aware that this kind of "streakiness" is possible in the live game. Interestingly, my personal account is one of the accounts we used as a test bed to help gather data. Last weekend I experienced Ancient Hypergate 6 times in a row! In fact, Jon himself didn't dispute that players can and will see streaks of Warzones, it is totally possible, just improbable.

We are aware of these concerns and are actively tracking metrics to make sure this isn't a bigger issue. This is the kind of thing we will always keep an eye on and look to improve.

-eric
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znihilist's Avatar


znihilist
04.24.2013 , 03:31 PM | #89
Quote: Originally Posted by EricMusco View Post
We are definitely aware that this kind of "streakiness" is possible in the live game. Interestingly, my personal account is one of the accounts we used as a test bed to help gather data. Last weekend I experienced Ancient Hypergate 6 times in a row! In fact, Jon himself didn't dispute that players can and will see streaks of Warzones, it is totally possible, just improbable.

We are aware of these concerns and are actively tracking metrics to make sure this isn't a bigger issue. This is the kind of thing we will always keep an eye on and look to improve.

-eric
Why don't you switch to a bayesian implementation ? Shouldn't be very hard to do.
The more you get a WZ the lower the probability of getting it again.
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jibboo's Avatar


jibboo
04.24.2013 , 03:31 PM | #90
All I know is that getting two of the same warzones in a row very rarely happened prior to 2.0 and now it happens on a regular basis.

Just a coincidence though, I'm sure...
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