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Bioware, do you know the PVP map cycling is an issue right now?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > PvP
Bioware, do you know the PVP map cycling is an issue right now?
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revcrisis's Avatar


revcrisis
04.23.2013 , 09:25 AM | #51
We got 4 huttballs in a row last night on Ranked Warzones. Something is definitely up with the map cycling.

JonCrow's Avatar


JonCrow
04.24.2013 , 09:51 AM | #52 Click here to go to the next staff post in this thread. Next  
Hey everyone,

We reviewed the data behind the Warzone queuing system in order to identify the recurrence of streaks of identical Warzones popping for players entering the system. If you assume a basic random Warzone assignment model you would have a 1 in 5 chance of repeating the same Warzone after queuing for any given Warzone. The probability of a streak of 3 identical Warzones using random assignment would be 0.2^2=0.04 or 4%. Again the probability of having a streak of 4 or more goes down precipitously.

We queried the data an examined the current streakiness of a random sample of players participating in Warzones currently and plotted the probability of certain streaks occurring against the random probabilistic model. The actual data is on par with basic random chance. Recent Warzone players have had a little over 15% chance of repeating the same Warzone compared to the assumed 20%, and subsequent streaks probabilities are also on par with random chance.

Does this mean that you won’t get a streak of the same Warzones? No! In fact, of the sample of 250,000 Warzones we examined, there were 35 streaks of 6, but this is truly the exception rather than the rule and it falls within the confines of the design model.

Also we examined the current trends of number of Warzone instances being generated by the system pre and post ROTHC launch and we have almost the identical number of Warzone instances being generated across Warzone types throughout the whole time frame. This helped confirm that, overall, there isn’t any one Warzone being “favored” over time.

However, we are still looking at ways to improve the design of the warzone matchmaking system in order to maximize the end user experience. Our designers are hard at work looking in details at ways to optimize the system in order to reduce further the likelihood of streaks occurring.

Thank you all for the comments on this topic. We appreciate your passion for the game and are glad to get constructive feedback. This allows us to investigate potential issues that we might not have caught otherwise. Keep the feedback coming.
Jonathan Crow | Gameplay Telemetry Analyst
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SomeJagoff's Avatar


SomeJagoff
04.24.2013 , 10:27 AM | #53
Quote: Originally Posted by JonCrow View Post
Hey everyone,

We reviewed the data behind the Warzone queuing system in order to identify the recurrence of streaks of identical Warzones popping for players entering the system. If you assume a basic random Warzone assignment model you would have a 1 in 5 chance of repeating the same Warzone after queuing for any given Warzone. The probability of a streak of 3 identical Warzones using random assignment would be 0.2^2=0.04 or 4%. Again the probability of having a streak of 4 or more goes down precipitously.

We queried the data an examined the current streakiness of a random sample of players participating in Warzones currently and plotted the probability of certain streaks occurring against the random probabilistic model. The actual data is on par with basic random chance. Recent Warzone players have had a little over 15% chance of repeating the same Warzone compared to the assumed 20%, and subsequent streaks probabilities are also on par with random chance.

Does this mean that you won’t get a streak of the same Warzones? No! In fact, of the sample of 250,000 Warzones we examined, there were 35 streaks of 6, but this is truly the exception rather than the rule and it falls within the confines of the design model.

Also we examined the current trends of number of Warzone instances being generated by the system pre and post ROTHC launch and we have almost the identical number of Warzone instances being generated across Warzone types throughout the whole time frame. This helped confirm that, overall, there isn’t any one Warzone being “favored” over time.

However, we are still looking at ways to improve the design of the warzone matchmaking system in order to maximize the end user experience. Our designers are hard at work looking in details at ways to optimize the system in order to reduce further the likelihood of streaks occurring.

Thank you all for the comments on this topic. We appreciate your passion for the game and are glad to get constructive feedback. This allows us to investigate potential issues that we might not have caught otherwise. Keep the feedback coming.
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DarthTHC's Avatar


DarthTHC
04.24.2013 , 10:27 AM | #54
You know what, I don't play War Zones at all...

I'm just in here to say that's one freaking awesome response. Perfect communication - describes the expected result of the feature, the methodology you used to research the player concern relative to expected result, and the result of that research. Thank you.

znihilist's Avatar


znihilist
04.24.2013 , 10:38 AM | #55
Quote: Originally Posted by JonCrow View Post
snip
Seeing how big the WZ sample these streaks are not weird.
However, I have a question what is the RNG that you guys use ? Is it Mersenne Twistor ?
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stephenalandavie's Avatar


stephenalandavie
04.24.2013 , 10:39 AM | #56
Don't get me wrong i notice times where their is an occurrence of a streak of the same war zones but it does cycle this cannot be widespread
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Legendari's Avatar


Legendari
04.24.2013 , 10:54 AM | #57
Quote: Originally Posted by JonCrow View Post
Hey everyone,

We reviewed the data behind the Warzone queuing system in order to identify the recurrence of streaks of identical Warzones popping for players entering the system. If you assume a basic random Warzone assignment model you would have a 1 in 5 chance of repeating the same Warzone after queuing for any given Warzone. The probability of a streak of 3 identical Warzones using random assignment would be 0.2^2=0.04 or 4%. Again the probability of having a streak of 4 or more goes down precipitously.

We queried the data an examined the current streakiness of a random sample of players participating in Warzones currently and plotted the probability of certain streaks occurring against the random probabilistic model. The actual data is on par with basic random chance. Recent Warzone players have had a little over 15% chance of repeating the same Warzone compared to the assumed 20%, and subsequent streaks probabilities are also on par with random chance.

Does this mean that you won’t get a streak of the same Warzones? No! In fact, of the sample of 250,000 Warzones we examined, there were 35 streaks of 6, but this is truly the exception rather than the rule and it falls within the confines of the design model.

Also we examined the current trends of number of Warzone instances being generated by the system pre and post ROTHC launch and we have almost the identical number of Warzone instances being generated across Warzone types throughout the whole time frame. This helped confirm that, overall, there isn’t any one Warzone being “favored” over time.

However, we are still looking at ways to improve the design of the warzone matchmaking system in order to maximize the end user experience. Our designers are hard at work looking in details at ways to optimize the system in order to reduce further the likelihood of streaks occurring.

Thank you all for the comments on this topic. We appreciate your passion for the game and are glad to get constructive feedback. This allows us to investigate potential issues that we might not have caught otherwise. Keep the feedback coming.
I find it really hard to believe that we all just suddenly have the bad luck of getting the same WZ 2-3 times in a row, multiple times per night, and that it's consistent and noticeable enough to fuel this discussion. The numbers might be balancing out on a large scale to look like each WZ is appearing an equal number of times (and they very well may be), but something is going on that is causing people to get the same one back to back a lot more often than before 2.0. I've been playing the game since launch and haven't seen this frequent of repetition since same-faction Huttball games.
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Antiskeptic's Avatar


Antiskeptic
04.24.2013 , 11:04 AM | #58
Quote: Originally Posted by JonCrow View Post
Hey everyone,

We reviewed the data behind the Warzone queuing system in order to identify the recurrence of streaks of identical Warzones popping for players entering the system. If you assume a basic random Warzone assignment model you would have a 1 in 5 chance of repeating the same Warzone after queuing for any given Warzone. The probability of a streak of 3 identical Warzones using random assignment would be 0.2^2=0.04 or 4%. Again the probability of having a streak of 4 or more goes down precipitously.

We queried the data an examined the current streakiness of a random sample of players participating in Warzones currently and plotted the probability of certain streaks occurring against the random probabilistic model. The actual data is on par with basic random chance. Recent Warzone players have had a little over 15% chance of repeating the same Warzone compared to the assumed 20%, and subsequent streaks probabilities are also on par with random chance.

Does this mean that you won’t get a streak of the same Warzones? No! In fact, of the sample of 250,000 Warzones we examined, there were 35 streaks of 6, but this is truly the exception rather than the rule and it falls within the confines of the design model.

Also we examined the current trends of number of Warzone instances being generated by the system pre and post ROTHC launch and we have almost the identical number of Warzone instances being generated across Warzone types throughout the whole time frame. This helped confirm that, overall, there isn’t any one Warzone being “favored” over time.

However, we are still looking at ways to improve the design of the warzone matchmaking system in order to maximize the end user experience. Our designers are hard at work looking in details at ways to optimize the system in order to reduce further the likelihood of streaks occurring.

Thank you all for the comments on this topic. We appreciate your passion for the game and are glad to get constructive feedback. This allows us to investigate potential issues that we might not have caught otherwise. Keep the feedback coming.
Have you looked at the data from APAC servers? Because I haven't got back to back same map wzs in a LONG time due to our limited population. Perhaps you should take a look using the data from some APAC Servers as this might give you a clearer idea due to less simultaneous wzs.
//

Skolops's Avatar


Skolops
04.24.2013 , 11:11 AM | #59
The previous poster is correct. For a 4% chance to repeat the same warzone 3 times in a row, I sure as heck have spent the past week or so getting multiple such streaks. For the first few days after 2.0 went live, I don't think I actually had any streak less than 3 warzones in a row. I'm sure there were exceptions here and there, but my point is that it sure as heck felt like it was very, very consistently 3 Voidstars in a row, 3 Huttballs in a row, 3 Civil Wars in a row, etc. This was also the experience for just about everyone I have spoken to - upwards of 20 - 25 people.

It may well be that over the course of the total sample the streakiness may not demonstrate itself to be outside of expected probability, but that it is a problem in more particular instances. For example, perhaps on a given day or a particular server there was greater streakiness than in the whole. It may even be that this is a bug which affects only certain players and so disappears in the mix of the data as a whole.

In any case, there are far too many people complaining about this issue to simply regard everything as working correctly. Something definitely seems to be going on somewhere.
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Laurreth's Avatar


Laurreth
04.24.2013 , 11:22 AM | #60
Quote: Originally Posted by JonCrow View Post

We queried the data an examined the current streakiness of a random sample of players participating in Warzones currently and plotted the probability of certain streaks occurring against the random probabilistic model. The actual data is on par with basic random chance. Recent Warzone players have had a little over 15% chance of repeating the same Warzone compared to the assumed 20%, and subsequent streaks probabilities are also on par with random chance.
Did that include the occurrence of players getting streaks of, e.g., only two numbers or generally a low number of distinct warzones, over time? Some complaints were, e.g., "only Voidstar and Huttball with only rare occurrences of neither of those".

IMO the matchmaking system should take some care to generate "short-term" variance, since (pure guessing) the majority of players only play too small a number of warzones in sequence to really care for long-term fairness.
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