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Reverse Engineering is not 20%

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering is not 20%

Wittand's Avatar


Wittand
02.19.2013 , 11:19 PM | #71
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
Classic gambler's fallacy. Did you even read the wikipedia link above?
No that is not the gamblerīs fallacy. The gamblerīs fallacy is assuming that if you have not rolled a 6 with a normal dice the likelyhood of rolling a six increases.
The poster you quoted simply stated that not rolling a six has the probability of 5/6 with one roll, but 25/36 with two rolls, ... . With increasing the number of rolls the likelyhood of not having rolled a six converges against zero, while for every single throw the chance of not rolling a six remains 5/6.

Wittand's Avatar


Wittand
02.19.2013 , 11:28 PM | #72
Quote: Originally Posted by Telanis View Post
OP, as others have mentioned you are relying on the results of a pseudorandom number generator. The problem with pseudorandom number generators is that to approximate randomness, the numbers have to be taken and use in order. You've partitioned your results between different sets of attempts, and that's not to mention the fact that you are almost certainly drawing from a random number pool that is also used by other users. Your results aren't statistically valid for that reason, the number of trials or anything else notwithstanding.
Why do you believe that only a pseydorandom number generator is used and not real randomness ?
Not to mention that it does not matter either way, since picking elements at random from the sequence created by either should result in a random sequence of numbers.
The question is how the number generator picks the numbers and how they are distributed (Poisson-,Uniform- , Binomial- ). The simplest of those is ofcorse the Uniform-distribution that assigns every value between 1 and 100 the chance of 1/100.

NotRonin's Avatar


NotRonin
02.19.2013 , 11:36 PM | #73
Quote: Originally Posted by Wittand View Post
Why do you believe that only a pseydorandom number generator is used and not real randomness ?
Because generating 'real randomness' is either computationally expensive, or requires specialized hardware to do so.

Wittand's Avatar


Wittand
02.20.2013 , 12:18 AM | #74
Quote: Originally Posted by NotRonin View Post
Because generating 'real randomness' is either computationally expensive, or requires specialized hardware to do so.
Since even the most basic computer random number generators are good enough to fool the naked eye, and coupling that with the fact that a user adds additional randomness to the process wheter a real RNG is used or not is not really the point, the 20% rate ,if it is true, should be noticebale even if they use a deterministic, every fifth request to the server results in a succes, model.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
02.20.2013 , 09:46 AM | #75
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackardin View Post
You are basically arguing a logical fallacy.

My opinion was not entered into the debate, just the evidence at hand, which I've already explained. A crafting model must have a learning curve, variables based on level and participation in the particular chosen craft in order to even be considered "crafting". A system based solely on an 80% failure rate with no variables, no learning curve is a poorly thought out, poorly designed system. It is a stretch to even call this a crafting system.

it is no more crafting then buying cartel packs on the cartel market and hoping for a roll that provides particular armors, just more tedious. This particular system is so far out of whack that economically it is far more lucrative an endeavor to farm mats then to perform the actual crafting because of the randomness of the draw. In fact, low level mats are at the highest mark-up comparatively.
In the real world, I agree that crafting is a skill you develop over time and get better at as you go. In a game, where playing a PvE story is the most important aspect of that game, not so much. Pure randomness does a couple of things in a game environment:

- it creates specialists. certain players get lucky and can craft things that other players cannot. Those who cannot seek out those who can. This creates a form of community and builds the game economy. Yes, eventually there are more of those who can versus those who cannot, but that is when expansions and crew skill level caps increase and new schematics become available.

- it is a time and money sink. For those who really want a specific schematic they have to invest time and in game money to the process of acquiring a schematic they really want. This encourages players to keep playing. Some players dislike this and do not participate; they either leave the game or seek out the specialists described above.

I think one of the big issues here is SWG. In that game, being a crafter was a legitimate "class." you spent all your time crafting stuff for other players. You gained a reputation and players sought you out to craft gear for them. There was also the gear deterioration factor - gear wore out over time - so gear would have to be replaced, creating a consistent demand. SWTOR has none of these factors. Some players want those factors in SWTOR, but they do not work in SWTOR because SWTOR is a very different game than SWG.

Most MMOs I have played are more like SWTOR than SWG. You are presented with a trainer NPC that "teaches" you how to make items, you then make those items. Some randomness mechanic makes certain items desirable and valuable. You sell those items to players who are unwilling to make it themselves.

Journeyer's Avatar


Journeyer
02.20.2013 , 09:54 AM | #76
One time, I RE'd a schematic and got an upgrade on the first try.
I'm pretty sure that RE is actually 100%.





--or, trust Bioware on statistics, since realistically, they are the only ones with the *whole* picture.
I make useful, game-expanding suggestions.
Holorancor | Food! | Outfit Storage | My Career | Ultimate PvE Solution

Regholdain's Avatar


Regholdain
02.20.2013 , 09:55 AM | #77
You are all assuming the 20% chance is not weighted by the skill level of your crew skill.

My personal experience in crafting in SWTOR has been that I am more successful reverse engineering gray and green difficulty recipes than recipes that are yellow and orange difficulty. The 20% of one is not equal to the other because crew skill seems to be factored into the result. The more difficult the recepe in relation to your skill level, the less likely you will successfully RE it.

At least, that's my assumption. I do not have a max level crafter, but the same appears to be true of other missions. If you do a Rich Yeild mission that's gray, you're far more likely to get awesome results than if it is yellow or orange.

It also seems to factor in whether it is a blue schematic or green that you are reverse engineering. I have had far more successes RE green and getting blues than RE blues to get purples.

All of your mathematic analyses are assuming the 20% chance is not weighted by crew skill level or schematic quality, which it most likely is. If the system is truly weighted in those ways, and appears to be, it follows that no amount of statistical analysis against the hypothesis that it's a flat 20% chance as the tooltip suggests is going to give you any pool of data that will be accurate.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
02.20.2013 , 11:44 AM | #78
Quote: Originally Posted by Regholdain View Post
You are all assuming the 20% chance is not weighted by the skill level of your crew skill.

My personal experience in crafting in SWTOR has been that I am more successful reverse engineering gray and green difficulty recipes than recipes that are yellow and orange difficulty. The 20% of one is not equal to the other because crew skill seems to be factored into the result. The more difficult the recepe in relation to your skill level, the less likely you will successfully RE it.

At least, that's my assumption. I do not have a max level crafter, but the same appears to be true of other missions. If you do a Rich Yeild mission that's gray, you're far more likely to get awesome results than if it is yellow or orange.

It also seems to factor in whether it is a blue schematic or green that you are reverse engineering. I have had far more successes RE green and getting blues than RE blues to get purples.

All of your mathematic analyses are assuming the 20% chance is not weighted by crew skill level or schematic quality, which it most likely is. If the system is truly weighted in those ways, and appears to be, it follows that no amount of statistical analysis against the hypothesis that it's a flat 20% chance as the tooltip suggests is going to give you any pool of data that will be accurate.
The small sample size argument works against your assertions just as well as that of the OP's. You were probably just lucky. I on the other hand not so much...

I recently did a lot of low level REing (on my level 50 JK 400 synthweaver and my level 50 BH 400 Cybertech) to gear up an alt, and knowing that my sample is small I did not do nearly as well as you did - an example: it took me ten tries to get the blue Resolve Mod 6 schematic from REing green mods.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
02.20.2013 , 12:54 PM | #79
Quote: Originally Posted by Journeyer View Post
One time, I RE'd a schematic and got an upgrade on the first try.
I'm pretty sure that RE is actually 100%.
I laughed for realzies on this one

Blackardin's Avatar


Blackardin
02.26.2013 , 08:38 AM | #80
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
In the real world, I agree that crafting is a skill you develop over time and get better at as you go. In a game, where playing a PvE story is the most important aspect of that game, not so much. Pure randomness does a couple of things in a game environment:

- it creates specialists. certain players get lucky and can craft things that other players cannot. Those who cannot seek out those who can. This creates a form of community and builds the game economy. Yes, eventually there are more of those who can versus those who cannot, but that is when expansions and crew skill level caps increase and new schematics become available.

- it is a time and money sink. For those who really want a specific schematic they have to invest time and in game money to the process of acquiring a schematic they really want. This encourages players to keep playing. Some players dislike this and do not participate; they either leave the game or seek out the specialists described above.

I think one of the big issues here is SWG. In that game, being a crafter was a legitimate "class." you spent all your time crafting stuff for other players. You gained a reputation and players sought you out to craft gear for them. There was also the gear deterioration factor - gear wore out over time - so gear would have to be replaced, creating a consistent demand. SWTOR has none of these factors. Some players want those factors in SWTOR, but they do not work in SWTOR because SWTOR is a very different game than SWG.

Most MMOs I have played are more like SWTOR than SWG. You are presented with a trainer NPC that "teaches" you how to make items, you then make those items. Some randomness mechanic makes certain items desirable and valuable. You sell those items to players who are unwilling to make it themselves.
As you said, "some" randomness is good....but not 100% randomness. Real world examples are valid as a comparison, as they make sense.

Bottom line, right now it cannot even be considered crafting, its gambling no more or less then buying cartel packs. Without the ability to improve on one's chances through learned skill, that is all it is. The entirety of the argument regarding a learning curve is to move it away from gambling to actual crafting.
May the Schwartz be with you....