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Reverse Engineering is not 20%

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering is not 20%

Darth_Sweets's Avatar


Darth_Sweets
02.09.2013 , 10:40 PM | #1
after going through too many materials i decided to check the reverse engineering rate of going greens to blues which is stated to be at 20% according to the tool tip in game. I have collected the number of reverse engineering attempt and success that i have had going from a green to a blue, I have not counted the times where I RE'ed and there was no chance of a plan to me gained.

Reverse Reverse
Engineering Engineering
Attempts Successes
9 - 1
15 - 2
5 - 1
6 - 1
1 - 1
5 - 0
5 - 1
5 - 0
10 - 1
19 - 5
15 - 4
8 - 2
10 - 2
10 - 2
1 - 1
24 - 7
10 - 0
7 - 2
5 - 0
9 - 2
10 - 1
5 - 1
5 - 0
10 - 1
10 - 0
10 - 1
10 - 1
10 - 0
4 - 1
15 - 0
9 - 2
10 - 1
5 - 0
5 - 0
5 - 0
10 - 1
5 - 1
10 - 1
10 - 0
5 - 0
2 - 1
5 - 0
10 - 0
7 - 1
13 - 2
8 - 1
15 - 2

This gives a 13.4 percent mean. Using a standard confidence calculation with 99.7 percent boundary if 20 percent is the true mean as defined in the tool tip the average for the sample above should be between 14.3 to 25.7 percent. With the mean sample is out of the 99.7 boundary that mean that it is almost impossible that the 20 percent is the true rate of getting a new plan.

Shibbstah's Avatar


Shibbstah
02.10.2013 , 03:29 AM | #2
This can all be solved via a simple term: RNG. Just because it says 20%, doesn't mean you'll RE 5 items and get a blue schematic, and so on. I've gotten the schematic on the first RE. Sometimes I've had to do 15+ to get it. Just unlucky.

Zorash's Avatar


Zorash
02.10.2013 , 03:59 AM | #3
That test proves absolutely nothing. It's the same crap with WoW of people claiming that people roll hacked when someone rolled 100 twice in a row. The chance of that happening is 1 in 10,000, yet it happened all the time. If you have thousands of people REing stuff, some people will get the short end of the stick, some people will be extremely lucky.

Kaskali's Avatar


Kaskali
02.10.2013 , 06:02 AM | #4
How did you calculate the standard deviation?

Maybe I am misunderstanding you. The three sigma rule says that in a normal distribution approximately 99.7% of the values will fall within three standard deviations (three sigmas) of the mean, so I assume that is what you are talking about.

You performed a test involving four-hundred-and-some rolls, and you had a success rate of 13.4%. If you are trying to claim that this is so far outside the parameters of an expected distribution that we should conclude the system is broken, you need to know how much variance we expect there to be in a distribution of trials with four-hundred-and-some rolls to begin with. How did you go about calculating that?

By the by, unless I am totally missing the point this kind of confidence interval calculation does not seem to be a very good way to make an argument about probability.

NLxAROSA's Avatar


NLxAROSA
02.10.2013 , 06:51 AM | #5
I'm willing to bet that if I recorded the same amount of RE attempts, I could get an average RE hit of 30%. Or 5%. Or 0%. Or 90%.

Miravlix's Avatar


Miravlix
02.10.2013 , 07:42 AM | #6
The usual gamers fallicy...

"Again, the fallacy is the belief that the "universe" somehow carries a memory of past results which tend to favor or disfavor future outcomes."

It's a 20% chance each time you re an item, it's not a 20% chance of all your re attempts.

Kunixp's Avatar


Kunixp
02.10.2013 , 08:09 AM | #7
Quote: Originally Posted by Miravlix View Post
The usual gamers fallicy...

"Again, the fallacy is the belief that the "universe" somehow carries a memory of past results which tend to favor or disfavor future outcomes."

It's a 20% chance each time you re an item, it's not a 20% chance of all your re attempts.
QFT. The same arguement was in LOTRO about percentage chances. Its based on that one attempt, not the percentage of all your attempts
Provix 50 PT, B'ful-oblivion up and coming Operative

Darth_Sweets's Avatar


Darth_Sweets
02.10.2013 , 12:12 PM | #8
Quote: Originally Posted by Kaskali View Post
How did you calculate the standard deviation?

Maybe I am misunderstanding you. The three sigma rule says that in a normal distribution approximately 99.7% of the values will fall within three standard deviations (three sigmas) of the mean, so I assume that is what you are talking about.

You performed a test involving four-hundred-and-some rolls, and you had a success rate of 13.4%. If you are trying to claim that this is so far outside the parameters of an expected distribution that we should conclude the system is broken, you need to know how much variance we expect there to be in a distribution of trials with four-hundred-and-some rolls to begin with. How did you go about calculating that?

By the by, unless I am totally missing the point this kind of confidence interval calculation does not seem to be a very good way to make an argument about probability.
Actually the confidence interval calculation is what I us at work to validate math models with test results for products we build. At my job we say that if a test data falls outside the 90 percent confidence interval we say that it fails to validate the model. In this case the programers are telling us 20 percent is the outcome we should see. As for how it is computed I used what we have used at work it also agrees with with my college text and I see similar things on wikipedia as well.

As for the people that are complain that this is just a RNG "thing" the point of a confidence interval test is to define a band of what kind of results you can expect to see from a set of sample tests that are all independent from one another.

bristolmat's Avatar


bristolmat
02.10.2013 , 12:14 PM | #9
I am a mathematician and I wondered about the reverse engineering probability. I calculated the probability of not getting a schematic which is a probability of 0.8, not each time you don't get a upgrade schematic , the more failed attempts the more unlikely it becomes in actually not getting an upgrade. There are a lot of are events happening on SWTOR.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
02.10.2013 , 12:28 PM | #10
Quote: Originally Posted by Darth_Sweets View Post
Actually the confidence interval calculation is what I us at work to validate math models with test results for products we build. At my job we say that if a test data falls outside the 90 percent confidence interval we say that it fails to validate the model. In this case the programers are telling us 20 percent is the outcome we should see. As for how it is computed I used what we have used at work it also agrees with with my college text and I see similar things on wikipedia as well.

As for the people that are complain that this is just a RNG "thing" the point of a confidence interval test is to define a band of what kind of results you can expect to see from a set of sample tests that are all independent from one another.
You sample size is too small.

If you've ever applied math to gambling with dice or roulette, and tried to calculate optimal gambling strategies (I have) you should know that you need a much larger sample size to have any confidence in your results.

Applying standard deviation to "the products you build" is NOT the same as applying standard deviation for gambling results.