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Underworld Trading: Biased-By-Design

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Underworld Trading: Biased-By-Design

finelinebob's Avatar


finelinebob
01.02.2013 , 10:15 PM | #11
Quote: Originally Posted by Kerensk View Post
We've already found that the system factors in your previous missions to influence the new missions available. The more you run metal missions the more rare they will become.

Do your tests again but only run fabric missions for a week and the see how rare your metal missions are then.
You missed where I said that I did not run any missions. I recorded what was available, stepped onto my ship, recorded what was available, stepped off my ship ... and repeated that cycle. I didn't actually run one of the 3000 missions I recorded, so if this effect you claim has been demonstrated exists, it had no influence over my results.

Given how few missions there are to run, I can see how it would seem that "less" metal missions are appearing. The fact is that there are a set list of missions. All but one grade have fewer metals missions than you can send your full crew out on. If you manage to send out 3 companions on the only 3 Grade 3 metals missions that there are, then of course you are not going to see any more metal missions until any of them have finished. But given how little the devs care to track anything beyond the variables they are now tracking, it just does not make sense that the act of running ANY sort of mission means it will appear less frequently in the future and that, furthermore, if you stop running a certain type of mission it will increase the odds of those missions appearing. What you are suggesting would require that the game tracks 96 separate variables (there are that many UWT missions per faction, including the Mission Discovery ones) and constantly compare the ratios of Gift to Fabric to Metal missions to determine how to skew the results the next time you randomize your mission list.

Now, do you really think the developers of this game would put so much nuance into a mission selection system when they haven't bothered to manage a simple two-variable system that could track how many consecutive fails you have REing a particular item and curving your chance of learning a new schematic? Track 96 variables per character when they won't even track 2? Does that really make any sense? Or does it make more sense that there is a fixed probability for any given mission in a list of a fixed size and that they altered the odds to favor one type over another? They can alter the odds without having to track a single variable.
Jedi Guardian JonBonJovi'wan
"Wanted: Dead or Alive"
Defenders of Monkeys - Prophecy of the Five
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psandak's Avatar


psandak
01.03.2013 , 12:24 PM | #12
Quote: Originally Posted by Kerensk View Post
We've already found that the system factors in your previous missions to influence the new missions available. The more you run metal missions the more rare they will become.

Do your tests again but only run fabric missions for a week and the see how rare your metal missions are then.
I can prove this right now. There was a point when all I wanted was companion gifts (I was trying to raise affection on an alt). I ran grade 5 and 6 gift missions with all my companions over and over and over again, and then there was a point where all the grade 6 missions were fabrics and metals (both abundant and three moderate). I took full advantage of the situation of course .

From that point on, I have run a healthy mix of missions and never fail to get the abundant metals mission at least once a night. The way I figure it is if I do not use the materials or gifts someone else will (guildie, friend, or off the GTM).

JWBinGA's Avatar


JWBinGA
01.03.2013 , 06:15 PM | #13
I just wanted to say thank you for putting the work into this research.

Fantastic level of detail and thoughtfulness in studying the game mechanics. I have had a cybertech/UWT toon since launch and I honestly had my own method for getting the missions I wanted, but it was not based on any actual testing. I think you confirmed a number of things I thought were likely true (particularly that there seems to be no rhyme/reason to yield availability). I wish there were a thousand more of you to study other aspects of the game. Let me know if you ever post on Reverse Engineering. That is a total mystery to me still (20% never seemed so rare and improbable until I started playing this game).

Thanks again! Keep up the good work!

DaedalusV's Avatar


DaedalusV
01.06.2013 , 07:46 AM | #14
I really hope the devs read this thread and put an effort into reworking the way we crafters get blue/purple crafting materials.. Green ones aren't as big a deal since they can always just put more nodes for them into the game.
"you're going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view."
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Telanis's Avatar


Telanis
01.07.2013 , 10:01 AM | #15
Quote: Originally Posted by finelinebob View Post
I did say early on that since these forums don't support tables, there was no simple way for me to post the data in a way that was understandable.
Then post it somewhere else and link it.

finelinebob's Avatar


finelinebob
01.08.2013 , 04:16 PM | #16
Quote: Originally Posted by Telanis View Post
Then post it somewhere else and link it.
Sorry, I have a researcher's inherent fear of posting my own data in raw form, so I didn't consider it. I'll see what I can do with Google docs.
Jedi Guardian JonBonJovi'wan
"Wanted: Dead or Alive"
Defenders of Monkeys - Prophecy of the Five
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Emmcee's Avatar


Emmcee
01.10.2013 , 07:02 AM | #17
I commend you on the work you have done here, but ...you made a crucial statistician mistake.

Your data collection process is flawed. I don't have the data to prove it, but I think it is pretty clear (as someone has already mentioned) that interaction does play a part in the design mission availability - i.e. what missions you are running/ran in the current cycle determines what missions are made available to you the next cycle. Since you didn't run any missions, it is improbable that your data is conclusive to prove your hypothesis.

Chances are really very very good that the decision matrix limits the number of missions for resources you "need" (based on popular choice) by triggering missions for resources you don't 'need' (your unpopular choice) beyond a simple ratio matrix. There are a few reasons why they would do this, all are pretty much a factor of limiting the resources any particular crafter has available to him'/her. This, effectually ...

...facilitates interaction with others. By limiting resources, a crafter can't (theoretically) be self-reliant past a certain point. This forces him/her to go to others/GTN to get the resources they need.
...slows the process. If a crafter has unlimited access to resources, it would make that craft skill trivial by design.
...makes those resources (and the items that can be made with them) have a value. This is more-so true with recipes, but affects raw resources as well.

And, to be clear, every mmo in existence with a crafting option has some facet of these implemented.

In the end, I think - at best - you may be able to conclude that the decision matrix re-initializes on instance reset - logging out/in, changing instances, etc - if you had a significant enough variation in your lists to prove it ...because that is essentially all you tested for.