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The Packs...


Galbatorrix's Avatar


Galbatorrix
12.24.2012 , 07:56 AM | #31
So far, I've spent maybe 20 or so bucks and have made about 5 Million altogether. It's all about luck.

-IceHawk-'s Avatar


-IceHawk-
12.24.2012 , 08:03 AM | #32
Quote: Originally Posted by darklordpotter View Post
I know "the odds of any individual box containing a Revan's Mask is still 1/100" just having more boxes gives you more 1/100 chances increasing the odds that one of those boxes will contain what you are looking for (as explained in the maths section above).
Um, no.

One Million Boxes X 1/100 Chance = 1,000,000/100,000,000 = 0.01%

It does not matter how many boxes you open up.
Your chance of receiving a rare item is as identical on the first box as it will be on box ten-thousand.

This is the fallacy of a gambler and the reason why Bioware is never going to let these packs go...

Vinjar's Avatar


Vinjar
12.24.2012 , 08:12 AM | #33
I like the packs. They sell well on the GTN.

darklordpotter's Avatar


darklordpotter
12.24.2012 , 08:18 AM | #34
Quote: Originally Posted by -IceHawk- View Post
Um, no.

One Million Boxes X 1/100 Chance = 1,000,000/100,000,000 = 0.01%

It does not matter how many boxes you open up.
Your chance of receiving a rare item is as identical on the first box as it will be on box ten-thousand.

This is the fallacy of a gambler and the reason why Bioware is never going to let these packs go...
No just no. The odd of a box containing whatever (x) is 1% so if you open 1 box your odds of getting x is 1%. For you to open two boxes and not get x either time you calculate the odds of not getting x the first time (100%-1% =99%) and times it by the odds of not getting x the second time (again 99%) because for you not to get x you have to not get it from both boxes. Therefore you need an event to happen twice and to calculate that with probabilities you multiply hence 99%*99% = 98.01% (0.9801).

if you open 1 million boxes the odds of the next box containing the Mask will still be 1/100 (1%) but you will on average have 1,000,000 (the number of "goes") * 1/100 (the odds of each "go" yielding what you want) = 10,000 masks. The odds of never getting a mask is (99/100)^1*10^6 ie effectively zero.

Of course I don't recommend it and it doesn't change the comment the boxes are a naff way of trying to get rare items.

SentinelDranoel's Avatar


SentinelDranoel
12.24.2012 , 08:41 AM | #35
I see some people are helping and also letting these players know that each box is and individual event, and therefore your odds are the same in each box. I was going to reply back to a few people but some of you guys beat me to it.
and the Force beat generic Swords and Magic any day. 8/26/14 That was my old signature but after RotHC, I went back to superheroes and swords and magic. Now waiting on Dragon Age and a SWTOR story expac for my Bioware fix 7/30/15 Returned for KotFE. Finally, a story expac.

Goretzu's Avatar


Goretzu
12.29.2012 , 03:55 AM | #36
Quote: Originally Posted by AelixVII View Post
To be honest, the only thing worth doing when a pack update comes out is wait a few days until the GTN gets flooded with the items, then you can just go around buying the weapons and armor for around 50-100k and the pets for the same. You'll still have to shell out over 1mill at least for the rarer mounts but it's cheaper this way overall considering the old pack items can still turn up in the new packs, even less chance of a rare.
This probably keeping the gold sellers in a tidy business.
Real Star Wars space combat please, not Star Wars Fox! Maybe some PvP and flight too?
Goretzu's Law: As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving "Entitled" approaches 1

TheBBP's Avatar


TheBBP
12.29.2012 , 04:11 AM | #37
Quote: Originally Posted by Goretzu View Post
This probably keeping the gold sellers in a tidy business.
At $20-$30 for a million credits? You can spend $20 on Cartel Coins and make FAR more than a million credits with selling the packs. Anyone dumb enough to buy TOR credits from farmers would be dumb enough to regardless of the situation.
Crosswire - Republic Commando
Commander - The Way of the Maker Christian/Family-rated Guild
Ebon Hawk

Goretzu's Avatar


Goretzu
12.29.2012 , 04:21 AM | #38
Quote: Originally Posted by TheBBP View Post
At $20-$30 for a million credits? You can spend $20 on Cartel Coins and make FAR more than a million credits with selling the packs. Anyone dumb enough to buy TOR credits from farmers would be dumb enough to regardless of the situation.
No idea, I've never bought any gold in any MMORPG, so I've no idea what the current (or any) prices are.

Makes you wonder if that is who Bioware EA see as their competitiors though.
Real Star Wars space combat please, not Star Wars Fox! Maybe some PvP and flight too?
Goretzu's Law: As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving "Entitled" approaches 1

AsheraII's Avatar


AsheraII
12.29.2012 , 04:54 AM | #39
Quote: Originally Posted by AelixVII View Post
To be honest, the only thing worth doing when a pack update comes out is wait a few days until the GTN gets flooded with the items, then you can just go around buying the weapons and armor for around 50-100k and the pets for the same. You'll still have to shell out over 1mill at least for the rarer mounts but it's cheaper this way overall considering the old pack items can still turn up in the new packs, even less chance of a rare.
What server are you on? Some pieces may go as low as 5k (the common mounts and armor pieces like boots), only a few of the weapons go below 100k (actually, it's only the sniper guns that go cheap, I guess the TAC hud is a bit too TACky). Half the weapons still sell easily near 200k, even the Black Nebula Blaster from the first pack goes around that rate here. The Phantom chestpiece goes between 300 and 400k, as does the Lhoosan Manta. The really rare things, like thrones, meditation chairs, Revan/Nihilus/Phantom mask and the rarest of pets range from 2 to 4 million.

Still, I wouldn't buy packs to earn credits. There are some really cheap unlocks I'd pick for that, which generate an exchangerate a bit higher than 1:1000.
And from what I've seen, opening 3 packs isn't a very reliable method of aquiring any of the special items. You might get one of the uncommon mounts or something like that, but it might as well result in 2 tossballs and a bunch of banners. The 70k credits was actually a pretty lucky draw for OP, the total value of those three packs could've been much, much lower, like barely 3k, which is NOT an exceptionally low result.
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__=##¯¯(▀▀[Φ]▀▀▀▀‼‼▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀‼▀▀!
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Goretzu's Avatar


Goretzu
12.31.2012 , 05:03 AM | #40
Quote: Originally Posted by AsheraII View Post
What server are you on? Some pieces may go as low as 5k (the common mounts and armor pieces like boots), only a few of the weapons go below 100k (actually, it's only the sniper guns that go cheap, I guess the TAC hud is a bit too TACky). Half the weapons still sell easily near 200k, even the Black Nebula Blaster from the first pack goes around that rate here. The Phantom chestpiece goes between 300 and 400k, as does the Lhoosan Manta. The really rare things, like thrones, meditation chairs, Revan/Nihilus/Phantom mask and the rarest of pets range from 2 to 4 million.

Still, I wouldn't buy packs to earn credits. There are some really cheap unlocks I'd pick for that, which generate an exchangerate a bit higher than 1:1000.
And from what I've seen, opening 3 packs isn't a very reliable method of aquiring any of the special items. You might get one of the uncommon mounts or something like that, but it might as well result in 2 tossballs and a bunch of banners. The 70k credits was actually a pretty lucky draw for OP, the total value of those three packs could've been much, much lower, like barely 3k, which is NOT an exceptionally low result.
Indeed I've rarely seen the rarer armour below 700,000 a piece and the rare mounts below 2,000,000.
Real Star Wars space combat please, not Star Wars Fox! Maybe some PvP and flight too?
Goretzu's Law: As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving "Entitled" approaches 1