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harpuax's Avatar


harpuax
12.22.2012 , 02:40 PM | #21
It's gambling, where on earth is gambling ever in the players favor? It's a huge scam to rip people off, casinos and lotteries do it all the time, these are no different.

darklordpotter's Avatar


darklordpotter
12.22.2012 , 02:41 PM | #22
Quote: Originally Posted by SentinelDranoel View Post
That is not how probability works. You take each individual item, with how many items are in the box and the chance that BW gives to each drop. Buying more boxes does not increase your chance to get the item because the probability of getting the item you want is the same on every roll. If the probability for getting a throne is for about 1 out of 100 hypothetically speaking, then on your first box, the probability is 1 out of 100, on the second box it is 1 out of 100 and on the third it is 1 out of 100. This is because each box is independent of the other.

One player could get Revan's mask in his first box. Another player could never get Revan's mask after 100 boxes. It is not really luck because we all have a equal chance of getting the mask. The event of getting a rare is highly unlikely and that is where the fun is for some people. High risk, big reward. Some people find it addictive.



Good example here.
Though the odds of never having got Revan's mask do decrease the odds in the next pack is still 1 in 100 absolutely.

Buying more packs does increase the likelyhood of picking up the Mask though because.....

Warning maths incoming....

Odds of not getting is 99/100 (100/100 -1/100) therefore in two packs you have to not get it twice hence the odds of not getting it are (99/100)*(99/100)=0.9801 (no meaningful difference) but to not get it three you then times by 99/100 again and so on and so forth.... after five packs the odds are about 1/20 of having got the mask. After ten you're up to about 1/10 and after 20 you are up to about 1/5.

However the odds of any individual box containing the Mask is still 1/100.

Goretzu's Avatar


Goretzu
12.23.2012 , 03:12 AM | #23
Quote: Originally Posted by harpuax View Post
It's gambling, where on earth is gambling ever in the players favor? It's a huge scam to rip people off, casinos and lotteries do it all the time, these are no different.
No where, ever, in the history of the Universe (past and present).
Real Star Wars space combat please, not Star Wars Fox! Maybe some PvP and flight too?
Goretzu's Law: As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving "Entitled" approaches 1

Goretzu's Avatar


Goretzu
12.24.2012 , 05:35 AM | #24
Quote: Originally Posted by darklordpotter View Post
Though the odds of never having got Revan's mask do decrease the odds in the next pack is still 1 in 100 absolutely.

Buying more packs does increase the likelyhood of picking up the Mask though because.....

Warning maths incoming....

Odds of not getting is 99/100 (100/100 -1/100) therefore in two packs you have to not get it twice hence the odds of not getting it are (99/100)*(99/100)=0.9801 (no meaningful difference) but to not get it three you then times by 99/100 again and so on and so forth.... after five packs the odds are about 1/20 of having got the mask. After ten you're up to about 1/10 and after 20 you are up to about 1/5.

However the odds of any individual box containing the Mask is still 1/100.



"Don't tell them the odds!" - Bioware EA.
Real Star Wars space combat please, not Star Wars Fox! Maybe some PvP and flight too?
Goretzu's Law: As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving "Entitled" approaches 1

Fanyen's Avatar


Fanyen
12.24.2012 , 06:07 AM | #25
Quote: Originally Posted by Vandicus View Post
You bought 3 boxes(very low probability of getting a super rare with that many tries). You probably should've sold them at 200k each instead or used those coins to buy expensive legacy stuff.
I didn't read the whole thread because this post made my head hurt.
Odds do not work that way.
If you open 2 packs and the odds of you getting that super rare item is 1% on the first pack then the odds of you getting that super rare in the second pack is still 1%. Doesn't matter how many you open, the odds each time you open the pack will still be 1%.

Fanyen's Avatar


Fanyen
12.24.2012 , 06:10 AM | #26
Quote: Originally Posted by darklordpotter View Post
Though the odds of never having got Revan's mask do decrease the odds in the next pack is still 1 in 100 absolutely.

Buying more packs does increase the likelyhood of picking up the Mask though because.....

Warning maths incoming....

Odds of not getting is 99/100 (100/100 -1/100) therefore in two packs you have to not get it twice hence the odds of not getting it are (99/100)*(99/100)=0.9801 (no meaningful difference) but to not get it three you then times by 99/100 again and so on and so forth.... after five packs the odds are about 1/20 of having got the mask. After ten you're up to about 1/10 and after 20 you are up to about 1/5.

However the odds of any individual box containing the Mask is still 1/100.
Getting an item from a previous box does not mean you can not get it again in the next box. Therefore it's still possible to get in the next box and the odds are exactly the same when you open the next box. Your chances do not get "better" with more boxes, they are the same each and every time you open a box.

darklordpotter's Avatar


darklordpotter
12.24.2012 , 06:14 AM | #27
Quote: Originally Posted by Fanyen View Post
Getting an item from a previous box does not mean you can not get it again in the next box. Therefore it's still possible to get in the next box and the odds are exactly the same when you open the next box. Your chances do not get "better" with more boxes, they are the same each and every time you open a box.
I know "the odds of any individual box containing a Revan's Mask is still 1/100" just having more boxes gives you more 1/100 chances increasing the odds that one of those boxes will contain what you are looking for (as explained in the maths section above).

AelixVII's Avatar


AelixVII
12.24.2012 , 06:24 AM | #28
To be honest, the only thing worth doing when a pack update comes out is wait a few days until the GTN gets flooded with the items, then you can just go around buying the weapons and armor for around 50-100k and the pets for the same. You'll still have to shell out over 1mill at least for the rarer mounts but it's cheaper this way overall considering the old pack items can still turn up in the new packs, even less chance of a rare.

LegendaryBlade's Avatar


LegendaryBlade
12.24.2012 , 06:25 AM | #29
Why do people still buy these? You have to know their reputation. They are very obviously just money sinks meant for the gullible
Star Trek Online Science Officer - "To boldy go where no man has gone before."
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Armetage - Gunslinger

timmyw's Avatar


timmyw
12.24.2012 , 07:47 AM | #30
Quote: Originally Posted by Reppical View Post
Those packs are the equivalent of gambling, you have a "chance" of rare drops.
You know I have had this uneasy feeling about these packs for ages and I couldn't quite put my finger on it. Then I read this and BAM! there it is. They aren't like gambling, they ARE gambling. Don't know why the implications of this didn't hit me before, guess I have been in lala land with the holidays and for some reason the idea that this is a game sat in the forefront of my mind.

I think that is why so many people have been upset by these things. It's because they didn't actually realise they were gambling, or perhaps the extent of it.
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