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[Synthweaving] Savant Sash

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
[Synthweaving] Savant Sash

psandak's Avatar


psandak
12.04.2012 , 09:20 AM | #11
Quote: Originally Posted by Zem_ View Post
I follow your math, but not your conclusions. How is one success in eight, "even money"? The odds of one or more success in eight trials is 1 - (0.8^8) = 83.22%. Those odds are much more than even money, are they not? i.e. I wouldn't bet money against having at least one success in eight trials. In the long term, you would lose all your money.
By your math, "even money" would be the odds of one success in three attempts (1-(.8^3)=51.2%

the term "even money" is used when the chances of one event happening is roughly equal to that of another event.

By my math...
the odds of seven consecutive failures is 20.97% (0.8^7=.2097)
and the odds of any one attempt being a success is 20%.

The chance of either event happening is roughly equal, hence "even money"

So, getting one success is eight attempts is roughly a 50/50 proposition.

Zem_'s Avatar


Zem_
12.04.2012 , 02:33 PM | #12
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
By your math, "even money" would be the odds of one success in three attempts (1-(.8^3)=51.2%

the term "even money" is used when the chances of one event happening is roughly equal to that of another event.
Not exactly. When we're not talking about actual amounts of money, "even money" simply means that the chance of an event happening is equal to the chance of it NOT happening. i.e. 50/50. A bet where you're as likely to win as to lose. So you can't compare just any two events like the chance of success of one trial vs the chance of seven failures. That's apples and oranges. It has to be the two possible outcomes of the given proposition. If I have eight items to RE and I am wondering, ahead of time, what the odds are that I will get the schematic before I run out of items to RE vs. the odds of getting NO schematic then you can calculate that as:

The chance of succeeding on the first try, plus...
The chance of failing on the first try and succeeding on the second, plus...
The chance of failing on the first two tries and succeeding on the third, plus... etc, etc.

Or you could do it the easy way and take the chance of NO successes in all eight tries and subtract it from 100%. Which is what I did in my last post. The odds are substantially better than 50/50 that you will see that schematic. You are not beating the odds if you get the schematic even though we've all had those bad luck streaks that make us think success is a lot less likely than it really is. We forget the times that it DID only take 1 or 2 or 3 tries and we remember the times we failed 10 or 20 or more times.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
12.05.2012 , 09:56 AM | #13
Quote: Originally Posted by Zem_ View Post
Not exactly. When we're not talking about actual amounts of money, "even money" simply means that the chance of an event happening is equal to the chance of it NOT happening. i.e. 50/50. A bet where you're as likely to win as to lose. So you can't compare just any two events like the chance of success of one trial vs the chance of seven failures. That's apples and oranges. It has to be the two possible outcomes of the given proposition. If I have eight items to RE and I am wondering, ahead of time, what the odds are that I will get the schematic before I run out of items to RE vs. the odds of getting NO schematic then you can calculate that as:

The chance of succeeding on the first try, plus...
The chance of failing on the first try and succeeding on the second, plus...
The chance of failing on the first two tries and succeeding on the third, plus... etc, etc.

Or you could do it the easy way and take the chance of NO successes in all eight tries and subtract it from 100%. Which is what I did in my last post. The odds are substantially better than 50/50 that you will see that schematic. You are not beating the odds if you get the schematic even though we've all had those bad luck streaks that make us think success is a lot less likely than it really is. We forget the times that it DID only take 1 or 2 or 3 tries and we remember the times we failed 10 or 20 or more times.
Not saying you are wrong but, these types of debates always remind me of a verse in the Don Henley song Garden of Allah

"Today I made an appearance downtown
I am an expert witness, because I say I am
And I said, 'Gentleman....and I use that word loosely....
I will testify for you
I'm a gun for hire, I'm a saint, I'm a liar
Because there are no facts, there is no truth
Just a data to be manipulated
I can get any result you like
What's it worth to ya?
Because there is no wrong, there is no right
And I sleep very well at night
No shame, no solution
No remorse, no retribution
Just people selling T-shirts
Just opportunity to participate in the pathetic little circus
And winning, winning, winning'"

Zem_'s Avatar


Zem_
12.05.2012 , 10:50 AM | #14
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
Not saying you are wrong but, these types of debates always remind me of a verse in the Don Henley song Garden of Allah
I prefer Twain. ""Figures often beguile me,"

My point wasn't really to argue the meaning of the phrase "even money" but just to point out that one success in eight is much better than 50/50 odds. Subscribers can normally expect an average of one success in five over the long run on items with a 20% chance to RE. But they need to remember also that this isn't a guarantee of one in EVERY five tries and that the system isn't broken if they see longer failure streaks than five.

Though even I admit to grumbling about it when I hit 30 fails in a row.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
12.05.2012 , 11:27 AM | #15
From another thread on same basic topic...

Quote: Originally Posted by Khevar View Post
The last time I was worried about the RE percentage, I started keeping track in a spreadsheet.

691 greens RE'ed- 132 successful = 19.1% (tooltip says 20% chance)
316 blues RE'ed - 35 successful = 11% (tooltip says 10% chance)

Statistically, this is a pretty small sample size, but it was good enough for me. I've gone 45 attempts without a successful RE. I've also done 3 in a row successfully.

Toolip is correct.

lordsatan's Avatar


lordsatan
12.06.2012 , 12:48 AM | #16
well as it stands atm i think sinth weveing is stuffed up atm cause ive crafted perple for my house mate and he cant even were them but our comps can use them ????

Zem_'s Avatar


Zem_
12.06.2012 , 08:23 AM | #17
Quote: Originally Posted by lordsatan View Post
well as it stands atm i think sinth weveing is stuffed up atm cause ive crafted perple for my house mate and he cant even were them but our comps can use them ????
This is a bug for all crafted purples right now that may or may not hit you. I haven't heard of an ETA to fix it yet either.

Edit: Nevermind... they just fixed it last night.