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Effective HP: A (very) Poor Metric in TOR

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Classes > Roles > Tanking
Effective HP: A (very) Poor Metric in TOR

OlosBC's Avatar


OlosBC
10.31.2012 , 09:47 AM | #11
Not sure I'd go quite that far, I'd still take endurance over aim on a 1-1 comparison, but I do tend to agree on the XX vs XXB mods. Wish they'd add the low endurance tank enhancements again tho, haven't seen any of those since rakata level.
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KeyboardNinja's Avatar


KeyboardNinja
10.31.2012 , 09:57 AM | #12
Quote: Originally Posted by Kitru View Post
I *always* go for the unlettered mods, given the option. More mitigation is more better, as I see it, and I'd rather get redundant damage (for faster kills) than redundant HP (for... nothing much really; slightly better self heals, I guess?). I've never had a problem surviving even though I've got sub-24k hp, and I've never had a problem generating threat (I've actually generate so much threat that I have to tank first in any 2 tank scenario because, otherwise, I just steal aggro from the other tank by overcoming his opening volley). It's for the same reason that I prefer to use Resolve Armoring and Hilts as opposed to the Force Wielder I'm "supposed" to use as a tank. As I see it, Endurance is for chumps. Mitigation>Damage>HP is my prioritization.
As a shadow, HP is actually pretty nice in moderation due to the way that it improves the self-heal on Telekinetic Throw. At my current stat budget, it's worth a little more than 60% of what equal points in mitigation would provide. That's still pretty crummy, except for the fact that the B mods provide more endurance than the unlettered mods provide mitigation (yay, bioware). As a result, swapping a couple of your unlettered mods for B mods will actually make your net survivability go up. This only holds true for two or three mods (I think I've swapped exactly that many), but it's something worth looking at.

I used to go for the Resolve hilts, but honestly damage is not a problem anymore. On most fights, I'm hovering between 750 and 800 DPS (with the ability to burst out around 1500 if I have to). That's quite sufficient to keep ahead of even my group's DPS, once we're past the initial "burst before the tank is ready" phase of the fight. I feel your pain on the "tank first" problem. :-) I've taken to just not DPSing for the first bits of a fight like Writhing Horror.
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Kitru's Avatar


Kitru
10.31.2012 , 10:05 AM | #13
Quote: Originally Posted by KeyboardNinja View Post
I feel your pain on the "tank first" problem. :-) I've taken to just not DPSing for the first bits of a fight like Writhing Horror.
I wear it like a badge of honor. I was running with a guy who insisted that I would have threat problems later on in the fight (his reason being that he had threat problems later on in the fight when he did it on his tank). I laughed at him and proceeded to say that was probably a pebkac issue. I didn't lose threat *once*.

Also, I know that I gain a nice degree of survivability by having a nice chunk of Endurance, but my desire to stack as much WP as possible and completely ignore Endurance is generally countered by my general laziness and lack of willingness to pay through every imaginable orifice to purchase all of the top grade Armorings and Hilt that I would need to do so. As such, even though it's more than I would *like*, I still manage to get into the "optimum hp range for survivability". I just so happen to be crazy like that.
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Quote: Originally Posted by Fende View Post
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LadyTributary's Avatar


LadyTributary
10.31.2012 , 10:27 AM | #14
If you're tanking, damage really shouldn't be a problem. Especially not if you're communicating properly with your DPS and other tank about when you're throwing out taunts and such. Once you have threat secured, it should be very difficult to pull off of you, regardless of how much damage you're doing or not doing. Damage done by a tank should be fairly irrelevant.

Once you've stacked your mitigation to the point of diminishing returns, it's expected that you'll stack endurance on top of that, because for the most part, your damage can be negligible. Extra endurance on your part takes stress off of your healers because it means that the DPS don't have to be perfect ("Why are the marauders on fire again?").

20k is probably sufficient health on a tank for everything but EC and TFB, but those require a higher level of gear and you will end up with higher health anyway.

Kitru's Avatar


Kitru
10.31.2012 , 11:54 AM | #15
Quote: Originally Posted by LadyTributary View Post
If you're tanking, damage really shouldn't be a problem.
As I see it (and have always seen it), damage is never redundant but HP can be. If I never drop below 50% hp, 50% of my hp is functionally redundant except as a mechanism by which to increase my self healing. If I turned some of that redundant hp into Willpower and started cranking out more damage, I still wouldn't die and the boss would die faster (not to mention that I would have fewer threat problems even in edge cases where a DPS gets a really lucky crit string right in the beginning). As such, the group gets more benefit out of me having better damage rather than more HP than I really need.

Tank damage is not something you should really ignore. Yes, it's lower than that of pure DPS, by about half, but that's not "negligible". Sure, if you're hitting enrage timers it's probably the DPS's fault, but if the tanks could still keep threat while dealing no damage whatsoever, you'd hit those enrage timers just the same. The combination of the two tanks' DPS functionally adds up to being the 5th DPS for an 8 man ops group. There's a reason beyond sheer boredom and active mitigation that tanks keep punching the boss 3+ minutes into the fight when they could, honestly, get away with just Taunt spamming and that's damage.

As a tank, I'm not just a punching bag: I'm a punching bag that punches *back*, and I like to punch back as hard as possible.
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LadyTributary's Avatar


LadyTributary
10.31.2012 , 01:33 PM | #16
It is the job of the tank to take hits. That is his primary role. That he additionally does damage is a benefit.

Assuming that you will never drop below 50% seems foolish to me. Even an excellent healer can face issues that will interrupt healing the tank. Line-of-sight, movement, avoiding damage, healing DPS: these are all things that mean a tank might have to wait a GCD or two before getting the necessary heal.

If you take a 12k hit and your health is only 20k, you are already below 50%. If you take that hit with 24k health, you are right at 50%, but another hit is still likely to kill you. If you take that hit with 28k health, you can take another hit and survive. That buffer is valuable.

Healers are human and make mistakes. DPS are human and make mistakes. Tanks are human and make mistakes. Having a tank with a large health pool increases the odds that a group will recover from a mistake. Many fights at the highest levels have very little margin for error, and increasing the chance for recovery is important.

Yes, a good healer can keep alive a tank with a mediocre health pool. An incompetent one will struggle.

Therefore, you are best served by maximizing mitigation stats, then raising your endurance to the point where you have a comfortable health buffer, then working on increasing your damage. It is absolutely possible to manage all three of these things.

Kitru's Avatar


Kitru
10.31.2012 , 02:14 PM | #17
Quote: Originally Posted by LadyTributary View Post
If you take a 12k hit and your health is only 20k, you are already below 50%. If you take that hit with 24k health, you are right at 50%, but another hit is still likely to kill you. If you take that hit with 28k health, you can take another hit and survive. That buffer is valuable.
First off, I'd like to point out that not once did I make the claim that I never drop below 50% hp. I stated that, *if my hp never drops below 50% hp* then the additional 50% hp is redundant. Getting hp exclusively to pad your hp for arbitrary extreme cases isn't really helping you or your ops group. Increasing your DPS, on the other hand, while it's not a primary concern for a tank, is going to serve you and your ops group better. Once you have reasonable confidence that you're not going to have any survivability problems, you're better off putting itemization into DPS without negatively impacting your DPS, which is best accomplished by switching out Endurance for WP.

Quote:
Therefore, you are best served by maximizing mitigation stats, then raising your endurance to the point where you have a comfortable health buffer, then working on increasing your damage. It is absolutely possible to manage all three of these things.
That's kind of the point. The issue that most people don't realize is that you're going to have that "comfortable health buffer" pretty much no matter what you do. Resolve armoring and hilt have more than enough Endurance on them, not to mention the fact that you can't even get the Sturdiness or Immunity 26/27 enhancements that really pull your Endurance down but crank your mitigation way up. It's for this explicit reason that I've got no problem dumping Force Wielder for Resolve. I've got all the Endurance I need from my mods and enhancements, even when they're optimized for mitigation. Why bother to get more of what I already have more than enough of when I could crank out my Willpower instead?
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Quote: Originally Posted by Fende View Post
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Taleek
10.31.2012 , 04:32 PM | #18
I agree with this post, and yes I read all the way through. My mantra on the subject once I actually understood what I was doing has been that a big HP pool doesn't matter if you can't hold on to it.
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KeyboardNinja
11.02.2012 , 11:47 PM | #19
Quote: Originally Posted by grallmate View Post
Take your time. I spent a while on it and as I said, I'm not convinced myself. Its much much more complicated and I think may require running a recursive algorithm to properly solve or perhaps just some rather advanced integral calculus. However I am certain that discreet groups of attacks do not provide an accurate answer.
I've had time to think about it. :-)

My original expression was wrong, but it was a closer estimate than your refinement. Here's the logic...

Let x be the probability of a single event, where an "event" is a boss attack that slips past mitigation. What we're interested in is the following situation:

P((x_1 \cap x_2 \cap x_3 \cap \ldots \cap x_10) \cup (x_2 \cap x_2 \cap x_3 \cap \ldots \cap x_11) \cup \ldots)

That is to say, the probability of events 1-10, OR events 2-11, OR 3-12, etc, all the way up to 185-195. There is an immediate law of probability which can be applied here:

P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)

Thus, the probability of A or B is equal to the sum of the probabilities of A and B and the negation of the probability of A and B. For the first two strings, we can calculate this in a very straightforward manner:

x^10 + x^10 - x^11

Thus, we have the probability of 10 consecutive mitigation fails, plus the probability of another 10 consecutive fails, minus the probability that all 11 were fails.

Unfortunately, this sort of expression spirals out of control in a hurry. Getting a closed form is somewhat...involved. With a bit of algebraic munging in the first case, we can derive the following:

x^10 + x^10 - x^11 = x^10(1 - x) + x^10

This gives us an inductive case for a recursive function that encodes our problem:

f(i) = f(i - 1)(1 - x) + x^10
f(0) = x^10

Plugging this into Mathematica, we churn out the following closed form:

f(i) = x^9(1 - (1 - x)^(i + 1))

(this bears a hilarious and entirely coincidental resemblance to the fundamental stat-scaling formulae which govern diminishing returns in TOR)

Coming back to our original problem... x = 0.4595. Our maximum i = 185, since there are only 185 overlapping 10 x 2 second periods in a 195 x 2 second fight. The rest is arithmetic:

f(185) = 0.000913208

That is to say, 0.0913208% odds. That's almost a 10th of what I originally calculated. So, my original estimate was *high*.
Computer Programmer. Theory Crafter. Dragonslayer on The Ebon Hawk.
Tam (shadow tank) Tov-ren (commando healer) Aveo (combat sentinel) Nimri (df scoundrel)
Averith (hybrid sniper) Alish (lightning sorcerer) Aresham (jugg tank) Effek (ap powertech)

grallmate's Avatar


grallmate
11.03.2012 , 01:28 AM | #20
Quote: Originally Posted by KeyboardNinja View Post
I've had time to think about it. :-)

My original expression was wrong, but it was a closer estimate than your refinement. Here's the logic...

Let x be the probability of a single event, where an "event" is a boss attack that slips past mitigation. What we're interested in is the following situation:

P((x_1 \cap x_2 \cap x_3 \cap \ldots \cap x_10) \cup (x_2 \cap x_2 \cap x_3 \cap \ldots \cap x_11) \cup \ldots)

That is to say, the probability of events 1-10, OR events 2-11, OR 3-12, etc, all the way up to 185-195. There is an immediate law of probability which can be applied here:

P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)

Thus, the probability of A or B is equal to the sum of the probabilities of A and B and the negation of the probability of A and B. For the first two strings, we can calculate this in a very straightforward manner:

x^10 + x^10 - x^11

Thus, we have the probability of 10 consecutive mitigation fails, plus the probability of another 10 consecutive fails, minus the probability that all 11 were fails.

Unfortunately, this sort of expression spirals out of control in a hurry. Getting a closed form is somewhat...involved. With a bit of algebraic munging in the first case, we can derive the following:

x^10 + x^10 - x^11 = x^10(1 - x) + x^10

This gives us an inductive case for a recursive function that encodes our problem:

f(i) = f(i - 1)(1 - x) + x^10
f(0) = x^10

Plugging this into Mathematica, we churn out the following closed form:

f(i) = x^9(1 - (1 - x)^(i + 1))

(this bears a hilarious and entirely coincidental resemblance to the fundamental stat-scaling formulae which govern diminishing returns in TOR)

Coming back to our original problem... x = 0.4595. Our maximum i = 185, since there are only 185 overlapping 10 x 2 second periods in a 195 x 2 second fight. The rest is arithmetic:

f(185) = 0.000913208

That is to say, 0.0913208% odds. That's almost a 10th of what I originally calculated. So, my original estimate was *high*.
This function is also incorrect. Again, basic logic disproves it: Given a higher number of trials and a constant probability, the chance of an event occurring at least once increases.

My calculations (in more depth) were:
X = Probability of an unmitigated hit (0.4595)
X^10 = Probability of 10 sequential unmitigated hits.

Next I looked at the possible start points for a string of 10 unmitigated hits. Attacks 1-185 respectively. Assuming that none of these attacks started a chain of 10 unmitigated hits we can use:
(1-x^10)^185
This gives us the probability that none of those attacks start a series of 10 sequential unmitigated hits. To get the probability that it does happen I then used:
1-(1-x^10)^185

Your inductive function is also incorrect. Your f(0) should actually be f(1). I can get an experimental idea of the probability by using a program like:
Code:
for(i=0;i<10000000000;i++){
   for(j=0;j<185;j++){
      if(rand.Next()<prob){
         hits++;
         if(hits>=10){
            count++;
            if(count>maxStreak)
               maxStreak = count; 
         }
      }
      else
         hits = 0;
   }
}
Console.Write("Probability: "(count/i) "\nMax Streak: " maxStreak);
I'll run it next time I've got access to my programming suite.
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