The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

That is why I edited the number for Aion to point out that it is active accounts, i.e. accounts that are still playing every 30 days or less. That is why I contend that you are cherry picking. Even removing Aion, that is still 6th place in 9.

Well then why include WoW into the numbers then? You reinforce my point that you are cherry picking, since by definition you can get any result you want by limiting the time frame. To contend they caught lightning in a bottle is ludicrous. They got what they have because they worked for it. There were many comparable games that could have done the same thing, but didn't. If you want to discuss this, I suggest you limit the time frame to the first year of launch for the contenders in the arena.

First year numbers:
WoW 300k to 6 mil (2000%)
LotRO 150k to 250k (167%)
DDO 65k to 50k (77%)
STO 106k to 68k (64%)
SWTOR 1.7 mil to 900k (53%)
Warhammer Online 500k to 175k (35%)
Rift 600k to 100k (17%)
AoCU 700k to 100k (14%)

That would be a relative comparison. That still puts SWTOR in 5th out of 8. The top of the bottom half, if you want to be optimistic about it. Since it is split down the middle, what company would you want to keep? WoW, LotRO, DDO, and STO? Or SWTOR, WAR, Rift, and AoCU? Can you understand why people consider that it is in the failing catagory?

Oh, and for comparison purposes, SWG 125k to 300k (240%). So is this a failing of the IP or the game designer? The fact remains this game was over-hyped, unsupported, and without vision. EA was so enamoured with itself that they failed to sagaciously assess the battleground on to which they entered and it shows. The fact that the game launched with 1.7 million is a testament to the IP. Those that stay by years end will be a testament to the game itself.

EDIT: And is it wrong to have some trepidation when the man who helmed WAR is now at the helm of SWTOR?

In that light, amend my statement to:

WoW 250k to 2 mil (800%) [West]

GREAT THREAD.

Considering the budget that TOR had compared to the MMOs you've chosen to highlight as competitors, TOR was a failure. It was a critical success but a general flop with fans. EAWare did not expect TOR to have under 1 million active subs at this point in its life.

The sky isn't falling, but an asteroid did knock up a little dust. The sky will fall if f2p isn't successful enough by whatever metrics EAWare has decided.

Lucas's licensing fees are pretty hefty compared to the other IPs discussed in the OP, too.

54% retention? Man it must be fun to not know numbers!

They gave us the number 2.1-2.4 million or so for people who outright bought the game. I think it's a fair estimate to say we're at about 700k players now. That means the game has a retention factor of only 30%. Regardless the game had one of the largest releases of an MMO ever, and very fast and sharply dropped off. 50% of the population quitting in several months I think alone is enough to evaluate the state of the game. And that state is poor.

The game is seeing only continuous decline and no new bodies joining in. People who had any sort of inclination to play the game seriously got it in the first few months, and judging from the numbers they had no inclination to stay. People quit for various reasons, and BW has done nothing significant to the game except continue to keep it a WoW clone with buggy patches.

The bottom line is the game had a great start, they dropped the ball, and they lost A LOT of players. You need no other games to compare it to, if you have a 50% lose of players in a few months, then something is wrong and the game is NOT a resounding success.

Wow doesnt need to fall for another mmo to rise, Someday another mmo will be made by someone who doesnt have their heads stuck up their A#%es and it will do well. Wow was not the only mmo out when it was released, EQ was and many games tried to dethrone Eq before wow and failed miserably, Daoc and Swg to name a couple.

Then wow was released and it did ok, but it wasnt the hit it would soon become, it was turned into that hit over time. spending 300 million on a game that is mechanicly where your competition was 9 years ago when they released and expecting it to crush that competiton is not a very smart buisness model.

Someday someone who knows how to budget a video game, how to run an mmo and knows that there are just certain industry standard game mechanics you cannot leave out of a modern mmo will make a game and it will eventually catch wow.(but it will most likely be run by blizzard }

I think Rift is on that track now, after making the same mistakes bw made with swtor trion quickly fixed their oversight and have continued to improve the game at a very quick pace, two things bw has unfortunately not done with swtor.

I hope the sky doesn't fall, at least until january, I've just bought and used a gametime card on my account today.

Well that means is they sold 2.1 mil to 2.4 mil games to retailers, not people. Only 1.7 mil subs at launch, that is the highest point, it's been down hill from there. So that means that some of those remaining 400k to 700k boxes were either sold later after some had already dropped their subs, were lost or destroyed, or in some other way not used. So it is 1.7 mil. And going by reported numbers, not by conjecture or supposition is how the percentage was reached. That number was taken by subtracting the 800k loss (two consecutive quarters of 400k losses) from the launch number of 1.7 mil, or 900k. I'm willing to bet 700k is about right, but that is just supposition and that has been excluded in the framework of Tim's discussion.

I hate to come to EA's defence, they have done something significant to generate income and that is by going F2P. Turbine has shown that it has lead to great success with LotRO and DDO. Sure Turbine just went through a layoff, but that is expected when you put out a major expansion. They simply don't need that amount of people to run the game once it's been shipped. It's like seasonal help for developers.

Believe me, I agree that this game has flopped, but don't skew numbers to make things seem worse than they are. We will know for sure in 3+ days where the subscription rate is.

Please state your sources for the numbers you are throwing out there...

After all, 99% of all statistics are made up on the spot. Without references to your sources, those numbers are just made up.

Ultimately, however, the game is playable. There is a large enough population on the consolidated servers to easily do whatever it is you want to do in game. By that perspective alone, the game is alive. All that is left is to continue watching to see if it thrives or stagnates.

There are links to in my previous posts.
And it's 74% of statistics are made up on the spot.