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The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

quantumsheep's Avatar


quantumsheep
10.26.2012 , 12:16 PM | #121
Quote: Originally Posted by Soluss View Post
Dont have a link and im not going to bother wasting my time looking for it again. They stated 2.4 millions sold. That included digital sales iirc. You make an assumption that those were not installed but thats an assumption. They never said they were not installed, they simply said they didnt convert to a paid account. A sale is a sale reguardless on if they sub or not. If they do not sub then it is still a loss of retention. Its unlikely that someone would pay 50 to 150 bucks and let it sit on the shelf.

This is my point though. Companies would, a lot of the time, say they 'sold' a certain amount - it looks a lot more impressive to say 'we sold 1m copies' when in reality they'd sold that 1m into retail but had only really sold 500k to consumers.

Which makes a sale not always a 'sale'

As you yourself say, " Its unlikely that someone would pay 50 to 150 bucks and let it sit on the shelf."

I completely agree with you. And for that reason the 700k that did not sub at all has always not sat right with me and made me think they are literally the copies still sat on the shelf at retail.

Thanks for the response.

QS
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Tim-ONeil's Avatar


Tim-ONeil
10.26.2012 , 12:18 PM | #122
Quote: Originally Posted by Soluss View Post
Dont have a link and im not going to bother wasting my time looking for it again. They stated 2.4 millions sold. That included digital sales iirc. You make an assumption that those were not installed but thats an assumption. They never said they were not installed, they simply said they didnt convert to a paid account. A sale is a sale reguardless on if they sub or not. If they do not sub then it is still a loss of retention. Its unlikely that someone would pay 50 to 150 bucks and let it sit on the shelf.
I don't disagree with you here. That's not the point of contention. I originally intended to do a box sale to sub retention comparison and there is no data available.

In that context the number adjusted for that is completely meaningless on it's own. I hope you understand what I mean.
Rhèy Phin
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Soluss's Avatar


Soluss
10.26.2012 , 12:18 PM | #123
Quote: Originally Posted by Urael View Post
TUXs, .. I have been "googling" off and on all morning and I have yet to find the over all initial box numbers for WoW. I have seen the "first month" articles which are something like intial sales of vanilla at 240k in first month with 100k active players in that first month ( which was HUGE back in the day). I guess if you measure just the first month of vanilla WoW vs. SWTOR, SWTOR kicked WoW's butt?
I wouldnt say they kicked WoWs but. WoW had sold out everywhere. It took some time before more copies were produced and at the time I dont believe digital was popular so I dont believe you could pay and download.

Quote:
World of Warcraft breaks the recordsWithin the first day, over 200,000 players created World of Warcraft accounts. By 5:00 p.m. PST, over 100,000 were playing the game concurrently. These two record-breaking numbers made World of Warcraft the fastest-growing MMORPG in history. Within a single day, all original 40+ World of Warcraft servers were filled to capacity, and by the end of the Thanksgiving weekend, more than 40 additional servers were deployed to meet the rapidly growing player base, as the number of new accounts and concurrent users continued to grow."We were all extremely pleased with the success of World of Warcraft on its first day of launch," said Mike Morhaime, president of Blizzard Entertainment. "Once we saw the numbers for the first day, we knew that we had to immediately increase capacity to accommodate the huge numbers of players joining our game. We're glad so many people are enjoying World of Warcraft, and we are dedicated to supporting a fun and smooth game experience for everyone."Retailers across North America reported that the World of Warcraft launch was unequivocally their biggest day-one sales in PC gaming history. Leading industry retailers, such as Wal-Mart, Best Buy, EB, and GameStop, all reported that hundreds of their stores sold out of World of Warcraft within the first day."World of Warcraft has once again shown that Blizzard consistently delivers the best games in the industry," said Robert McKenzie, vice president of merchandising at GameStop. "It sold better than any other PC game this year – in fact, World of Warcraft enjoyed the best day-one sell-through GameStop has ever seen on a PC title!"Over the Thanksgiving weekend, players continued to buy World of War
The important thing to note is that WoW continued to grow and grow and grow. It didnt start a decline until years later. Which is why I said your data is unfair. You want to show retention rate then its unfair to compare an 8 year old game to a relatively new one. WoWs true first year retention rate was over 100%.
James Ohlen: " For 2012 we really want players to feel like they're getting their money's worth. You're going to see so many changes and additions to the Star Wars Universe. It's going to be impressive. We have our Update 1.2 coming in the next week and then after that it's going to continue to roll out month after month. It's exciting."

Soluss's Avatar


Soluss
10.26.2012 , 12:19 PM | #124
Quote: Originally Posted by Rayla_Felana View Post
Consider turning up your brightness, haven't had any complaints beforehand, or perhaps it's your eyesight, regardless, that's an excellent way to debate my point.
I like your font color.
James Ohlen: " For 2012 we really want players to feel like they're getting their money's worth. You're going to see so many changes and additions to the Star Wars Universe. It's going to be impressive. We have our Update 1.2 coming in the next week and then after that it's going to continue to roll out month after month. It's exciting."

Soluss's Avatar


Soluss
10.26.2012 , 12:20 PM | #125
Quote: Originally Posted by quantumsheep View Post
This is my point though. Companies would, a lot of the time, say they 'sold' a certain amount - it looks a lot more impressive to say 'we sold 1m copies' when in reality they'd sold that 1m into retail but had only really sold 500k to consumers.

Which makes a sale not always a 'sale'

As you yourself say, " Its unlikely that someone would pay 50 to 150 bucks and let it sit on the shelf."

I completely agree with you. And for that reason the 700k that did not sub at all has always not sat right with me and made me think they are literally the copies still sat on the shelf at retail.

Thanks for the response.

QS
A publicly traded company cannot lie like that. It would be against the law.
James Ohlen: " For 2012 we really want players to feel like they're getting their money's worth. You're going to see so many changes and additions to the Star Wars Universe. It's going to be impressive. We have our Update 1.2 coming in the next week and then after that it's going to continue to roll out month after month. It's exciting."

Soluss's Avatar


Soluss
10.26.2012 , 12:22 PM | #126
Quote: Originally Posted by Tim-ONeil View Post
I don't disagree with you here. That's not the point of contention. I originally intended to do a box sale to sub retention comparison and there is no data available.

In that context the number adjusted for that is completely meaningless. I hope you understand what I mean.
Yes I do and im not trying to argue your data. I find it to be a fair post. It is what you said it is. I just dont agree with the way you went about it.
James Ohlen: " For 2012 we really want players to feel like they're getting their money's worth. You're going to see so many changes and additions to the Star Wars Universe. It's going to be impressive. We have our Update 1.2 coming in the next week and then after that it's going to continue to roll out month after month. It's exciting."

chuixupu's Avatar


chuixupu
10.26.2012 , 12:25 PM | #127
My guess for the quarterly report would be a sub loss between the previous quarter to some degree. A few things happened: 1) The initial 6 month subbers term ended. I know I noticed a definite drop-off after that passed. 2) GW2 and MOP were released 3) the F2P announcement came, which probably did drive some away, even if it was not permanent.

On the other hand, I have also noticed the numbers picking back up in at least some places ever since the new updates started coming out. I don't believe those are new subs though, just dormant subscribers coming out of the woodwork.
Wardens of Fate / Alea Iacta Est
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quantumsheep's Avatar


quantumsheep
10.26.2012 , 12:32 PM | #128
Quote: Originally Posted by Soluss View Post
A publicly traded company cannot lie like that. It would be against the law.
I won't labour the point but I do this kind of thing myself!

My most successful game sold 5,000 copies. Nothing great really. But I made it free for a day and it got 10,000 downloads.

When people ask how well it's done, I always say 'It's been downloaded 15,000 times'. It's not factually incorrect, just as saying SWTOR has sold 2.4m copies isn't factually incorrect.

Neither of us are 'lying'. But as a journalist, my very first question to EA would have been 'Is that 2.4m sold at retail/digital, or shipped to retail?'

It may have sold 2.4m into retail, with only 1.7m actually sold to consumers. Without knowing for sure, saying it's sold 2.4m copies is still correct

Anyway, I'll let it go. It's just always been something that bothered me!

QS
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Tim-ONeil's Avatar


Tim-ONeil
10.26.2012 , 12:34 PM | #129
My own prediction (and this IS opinion only of course) is that we will see a leveling off of sub loss or even a small gain in the call. There's a lot of buzz being generated here with the F2P upcoming, the server merges have stabilized the populations even in the face of the WoW expansion and the games that were flavors of the month are getting stale.
Rhèy Phin
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Darth_Urtani's Avatar


Darth_Urtani
10.26.2012 , 12:36 PM | #130
Quote: Originally Posted by Soluss View Post
A publicly traded company cannot lie like that. It would be against the law.

It's not lying though. Sure they aren't 100% truthfull,, sure they're stretching what truth they have, sure they're muddying up the water so their investors can't see well, but that's EA for you. Andd many companies do this. It's not illegal to be a jerk.
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