The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

I disagree. If that were the case then it should have been done at the end of the last conference call and as I said before it should be based against the same time frame of other MMOs otherwise it isnt a fair consensus. Rift for instance is releasing a new expansion next month and their numbers may jump quite a bit. Which would hugely change the outcome of both Rift and ToR. Many variables have changed since then so its not likely that the data is even relevant anymore. For instance, and this is just and example not a prediction.... They could say, at the call, subscribers have dipped under 500k. The proposed median rate of 45% would shoot down to about 28% which is a huge difference.

Now if you want me to think of this as prediction to what is going to still be....Then its no better then anyone else's prediction that this thread was created to stop.

It's a fluid discussion and will be changed based on the outcome of that call. That doesn't make this any less relevant.

I reject the rest of the statement however. The data presented is presented in context.

Current subscribers are listed for all the AAA MMO's with this sub model that are frequently discussed on this forum. There's nothing wrong with showing the current marketshare as people base their discussions on what is happening TODAY so this is a perfectly valid way of illustrating that.

If I had used 6 month retention numbers people in here would be going crazy since that would have been the 1.3 million subscriber mark for SWTOR. It's an interesting discussion but I'd be accused of having an agenda.

Additionally we are nearing the 1 year mark and the data we have will be relevant to that. For ease of updating the only thing that has to change in the model I've used for 1 year retention outlook is SWTOR's sub numbers. The rest will remain the same forever.

I saw this analysis in two ways: the first to assess SWTOR against it's competition and the second, to assess the overall industry trend. In that light I see this analysis as sheding some light on the over all notion vs. all the emotion and knee jerk reactions.

If that is your attitude then I reject your entire data set and analysis. The way you are going about it would be like judging how many people have iphone 5 vs how many people have a flip phone. People always flock to the new and improved versus staying with the old and outdated. Not judging them based on the same time frame is just a poor analysis.

So if you want to go buy industry trend then the sky is indeed falling. Industry trend would show that this game will only be good for a few years at best.

To OP, your numbers are off.

The NA/EU for WoW doesn't have 6.5 mil people. At most maybe 4.5mil. China has always had the majority of WoW population and as thus skews the numbers because their payment model is so much less than ours.

I'd also point out that I think the standard for most mmo's, at least as far as mmo's is concerned is going to be about a 25% retention rate. Even WoW has stated that they've seen around 40mil people subscribe during it's lifetime.


The main thing I'd point out is that if people really want SWTOR to succeed then they need to step up their game. With the game going F2P, it means that their probably will be a ton of new players coming into the game to check it out. It really is up to the current population to encourage them to stick around. Or in other words, don't be elitist *****.

What I mean by this, and I'm pretty new to the game, and when I go into an instance for the first time or even a heroic4, I'll tell people that. But I've had a few people l2tank, and quit an flashpoint without comment other than I don't play with nubs. Granted, I know I wasn't the greatest, but I'd add that as a new guardian, I didn't even realize I wasn't in the tanking stance, and I didn't have guard up. Just those 2 things would have changed the flashpoint, and if those things were mentioned, I would have done it immediately, and would have changed the run.

If the community wants this game to succeed, we can only do that by doing it ourselves, to encourage new players, to be helpful when needed, and take a chance and help the newbies.

Urael summed it up exactly.

The trend of MMO's is not a positive one right now and I am illustrating that. There's no rose color filter here.

Future statements about the game should be tempered in light of the F2P model and the call next week. If we are going to make statements however based on how the other games that have moved from sub to sub + F2P have done this would trend very positively for SWTOR.

At the point that SWTOR goes F2P a new analysis should be started:

1. SWTOR vs. other F2P games only.
2. SWTOR + other F2P vs WoW (since it is top dog right now)

Run the analysis until the next conference call use those results to assess and repeat each conference call for a year and do a look back for the trend.

I would be happy to update it if you can provide a link to one of the Activision/Blizzard investor calls where they give the NA subscription number.

I plan on doing this, subject to available data of course.