The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

Once again, you are fractioning the methodology so you can prosecute your discontent in some manner. It's not any single data source, it's the use of multiple sources and cross checking and rationalizing if the data is coherant for the purposes of comparison analysis and tracking over time that makes MMOdata a long standing credible source of data. For example: he uses Crossfire as one source of data, not THE source of data, and then tests if the data even makes sense with other data available.

You keep trying to judge and dismiss based on absolutes. That is not the purpose of the site

The numbers available may not be "the exact" data but, they are a "reliable subset" of the whole. Therefore, they can be used as an initial hypothesis to the way things are trending overall. When "actual" numbers become available (if ever) then the validity of this particular study can be evaluated. In the mean time since this is the set of data we have to go on, we can reasonably make the assumption that they are reliable enough to view the overal trajectory of the SWTOR vs. it's competitors. Make sense?

I won't disagree with the message but I will disagree with the numbers.

While the data of box sales may not be comparitive to other games, without that data as well, there is no need to toss it out. If anything that added data at the very least reflects the rate of true retention for this specific game. You cannot just discard true data because you dont have it from the other sources. You can discard it in the "how is ToR doing compared to other MMOs" without having their data. You cannot discard it to show ToRs true retention.

If people bought the game and didnt sub it still declines the retention rate. The game didnt hold them enough to subscribe. That is still a decline in overall retention rate. As a stand alone game you use the true retention rate %.

A valid concern and interesting but, a different analysis.

This analysis concerns subriber data only from the time of initial subscribers which does not contain those that didn't subscribe in the initial wave of box purchases. While that data is known for SWTOR at the time of this analysis, it is not known for all the competitors at the same point in time of initial release of each. Tim said if someone could provide that data he would be more than happy to include it.

For now think of this analysis' time zero is at the point that the first wave of subscribers stated paying (e.g. after the initial 30days of free time). This analysis has to be viewed from this context ONLY.

Again the other concerns of Box Sales are valid but not in the case of THIS analysis.

This analysis conjuction with an analysis of box sales vs. initial subscriptions for SWTOR and their competitors would provide a more accurate picture overall concerning attrition but, since we don't have that data this analysis suffices as a subset to analyze the over all trend.

With the new conference call comming next week, this thread would have been better suited to wait until then. As it stands the data is old news and not indicative of what is current. If another source wasnt comming out for months then that would be one thing but we know a new source will be comming next week. IOW, its silly to debate this now when the data will most likely have different results next week.

A better analysis for your topic would be to use data to show what each MMO has done in its first 6 months. That would be more reliable to show true comparitive results. The reason being is this... As an example, you show WoW statistics. It is not really a fair comparison because the game is 8 years old. Not many people stick with anything for 8 years. Most people will go for the new shiney as apposed to the old outdated.

So take all those MMOs, in your list, and post the data for their 6 month after launch mark. That would be the fair comparison. As it stands you are judging a comparison of not only old data but also data of a 10 month old game a 1.5 year old game a 8 year old game etc.... Again, its slanted statistics because its judging a retention rate and current sub numbers of something relatively new versus something years old. People always go for the new thing.

Exactly. I will update this when new numbers are available as well it's a fluid discussion.

We have two choices really. We can use the data available acknowledging it's limitations as well as acknowledging it is going to be the most accurate model we have until more data is available, if ever. Or we can continue to base everything on our uniformed personal feelings and make ridiculous statements and about the game being pulled after a year.

I prefer the more logical approach.

Actually, this analysis is perfectly timed to assess what is released IN the up coming conference call. Think of this analysis as the intial hypothesis with the conference call being the "observed" state.

As I said, it is fair when judging versus other MMOs, only if you dont have that data for others, but it is not fair as a stand alone. If you want to just give data for ToR and ToR alone then you must start at box sales. I wasnt trying to say it was a concern for THIS analysis.

What is a concern however is judging a fresh game vs games that are from 1.5 to 8 years old. See my post just below yours.

It is an interesting hypothesis, though it's cherry picking a bit to make everything fit. Drawing data from from the same site you can come up with different results with varying degrees of validity.

This hypothesis I suppose is as valid as any at this point in time.

All I will say is that the information can be mined that will support almost almost an position for or against, and at the moment all hypothesis are slim at best. Some of the numbers are even disputed by the very companies listed, though they will not list specifics (this game included).

At any rate I still stand by my own hypothesis and find that and Raven Night's numbers more credible than this scenario, though there isn't that much daylight between his numbers and yours, except that his scenario does not support the stretch that all games have suffered the same type of subscriber attrition.

The major flaw, as I see it, is that this game is not free to play.....yet.

On a side note, if your end point is to contend the game is not going to be dead in a few months as some contend, I would agree with that sentiment. Many games have continued to survive with very low populations as the list demonstrates.