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The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

TUXs's Avatar


TUXs
10.26.2012 , 10:18 AM | #71
Quote: Originally Posted by Andryah View Post
Yeah but you ignoring the publicly published numbers stating that they never had more then 1.7 M subs. In other words, 700K box purchase NEVER subscribed. None of us know how many even loaded the game, much less actually played it. Further, it's pretty evident that a lot of KOTOR fans bought the game thinking/wishing they were getting KOTOR3 and proceeded to play it as a single player discardable game. Nobody knows exact numbers or reasons.... but that is beside the point.

The point is, you can only measure and analyze subscriptions, not box sales in the context of this discussion. MMOdata uses the same methodology for all MMOs that are subscription or freemium.
I disagree Andryah. We know there were 700k+ more games sold to players who didn't like the game enough to even sub. That directly impacts the retention rate that Tim is trying to prove. Ignoring those additional 700k+ makes any conclusion meaningless.
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Tim-ONeil's Avatar


Tim-ONeil
10.26.2012 , 10:18 AM | #72
Quote: Originally Posted by TUXs View Post
So...you're using false data to prove a point?!

You state a completely false number Tim. No matter what other data you may be able to collect, you're using FALSE data about SWTOR, which makes any analysis you pretend to make, useless.
Please reread Andryah's post.

The comparisons have to be the same, or they are not comparisons. I explicitly laid out the terms of what we are comparing data. SWTOR's sales to subs ratio is meaningless without comparison.
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Andryah's Avatar


Andryah
10.26.2012 , 10:20 AM | #73
Quote: Originally Posted by Hambunctious View Post
Despite being careful and doing the necessary research, MMOData.net cannot guarantee the validity of the information found here as it is based on various sources which could be incomplete, inaccurate or otherwise unreliable. Furthermore, all estimates are the opinion of MMOData.net and should be treated as such.

As much as you appear to love to bash SWG, the guy rates his info on SWG as a "C". No official numbers were released on subs for a long time before the closure announcement. Even though we who played could see that 2 servers were heavy, or full much of the day, and that a few more were medium at times.

Touting any numbers from this site as fact is not correct, unless those numbers were released by the mmo company. Else it's only a guess.

Sub numbers are measurable to companies, and we only know what they choose to disclose. If they don't release accurate numbers, then mmo data doesn't really know, nor do we.

SWTOR could only be at 300k, or more/less, for all we know. The only people who really know work at EA, and the rest of us are just guessing.
I suggest you spend some time to understand how he synthesizes his data (for which he uses a number of different sources to cross check and rationalize the data), rather then just jump to is statement of caveat to discedit data you don't understand or don't like.

My point being that he uses a very consistent methodology to help insure he is not doing what so many people on gaming forums do (pulling numbers out of dark places in their anatomy).

Are his numbers absolute official subscription numbers? .. in most cases no. Does he have a sound methodology for arriving at estimations that test well? YES.
When you find yourself surrounded by hostile Clowns... always go for the "Juggler" first.

DarthZak's Avatar


DarthZak
10.26.2012 , 10:21 AM | #74
Quote: Originally Posted by Andryah View Post
You do realize that they cut way deeper then just letting go of contractors and development staff no longer needed for pre-launch content development right? If not, then please spend some time following the bread crumbs in Linked-in for Bioware staff to see how many people in how many different departments were cut from the workforce. I suggest beginning with the Customer support staff which got decimated...... precisely because there were fewer customers then their launch plan predicted and they materially adjusted their operations plan accordingly, thus reducing the single largest component in the cost (labor).
Im not saying the disappointing figures had nothing to do with it, Im just putting it into perspective.

Not all people who lost their jobs did so because of disappointing figures. Some lost their jobs because of it? Sure.
In regards to the customer support staff that was cut, this is to be expected. Having worked in customer support for a lot of my worklife, it is known for companies to hire a lot of people for a new project under the banner of "This project will be immense forever and ever" when it is in fact just to catch the sudden inflow that is needed for a short period. This is always why most of those jobs will not be via a permanent contract but on a trial basis for 3 months. EA counted on the fact to cut jobs from customer support, maybe not as much as they had to but they still counted on it.
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TUXs's Avatar


TUXs
10.26.2012 , 10:21 AM | #75
Quote: Originally Posted by Andryah View Post
Actually, he is comparing apples to apples, whereas you want to inject a box sales number into the equation for this game and this game alone... making it suddenly an apples to oranges comparison.

At least be consistent and objective about it TUXs.
I am Andryah. I think that by tossing out the additional 700k, like he's done, you're generating a very sketchy conclusion. Those additional 700k box sales came with a 30 day subscription. Ignoring them to prove retention rate is wrong.
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Andryah's Avatar


Andryah
10.26.2012 , 10:21 AM | #76
Quote: Originally Posted by TUXs View Post
I disagree Andryah. We know there were 700k+ more games sold to players who didn't like the game enough to even sub. That directly impacts the retention rate that Tim is trying to prove. Ignoring those additional 700k+ makes any conclusion meaningless.
If you insist on going this route... then you have to do it for every game compared in the discussion, or you are being hypocritical. In which case, you need to create new research because MMOdata does not cover box sales, and never has. So the burden is on you to be fair and objective here if you want to go by box sales.

Right now... you are pressing the box sales only for SWTOR, which discredits you comments here as far as I am concerned.
When you find yourself surrounded by hostile Clowns... always go for the "Juggler" first.

TUXs's Avatar


TUXs
10.26.2012 , 10:23 AM | #77
Quote: Originally Posted by Tim-ONeil View Post
Please reread Andryah's post.

The comparisons have to be the same, or they are not comparisons. I explicitly laid out the terms of what we are comparing data. SWTOR's sales to subs ratio is meaningless without comparison.
But you immediately discarded 700k subscribers to pretend you found a retention %.
All warfare is based on deception If his forces are united, separate them If you are far from the enemy, make him believe you are near A leader leads by example not by force
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Andryah's Avatar


Andryah
10.26.2012 , 10:24 AM | #78
Quote: Originally Posted by TUXs View Post
I am Andryah. I think that by tossing out the additional 700k, like he's done, you're generating a very sketchy conclusion. Those additional 700k box sales came with a 30 day subscription. Ignoring them to prove retention rate is wrong.
There is no subscription with the box sale. It's 30 days of free play time. And, respectfully, you are not listening and you are trying to skew the discussion by using one set of data for SWTOR and different data for every other game.
When you find yourself surrounded by hostile Clowns... always go for the "Juggler" first.

Andryah's Avatar


Andryah
10.26.2012 , 10:25 AM | #79
Quote: Originally Posted by TUXs View Post
But you immediately discarded 700k subscribers to pretend you found a retention %.
They were not subscribers. And EA has said so.
When you find yourself surrounded by hostile Clowns... always go for the "Juggler" first.

TUXs's Avatar


TUXs
10.26.2012 , 10:25 AM | #80
Quote: Originally Posted by Andryah View Post
If you insist on going this route... then you have to do it for every game compared in the discussion, or you are being hypocritical. In which case, you need to create new research because MMOdata does not cover box sales, and never has. So the burden is on you to be fair and objective here if you want to go by box sales.

Right now... you are pressing the box sales only for SWTOR, which discredits you comments here as far as I am concerned.
Whatever lol. Go ahead and use your fake numbers to prove some fake point. We have the numbers for SWTOR and those 2.4 million were ALL subscribers this year. Ignoring 700k just because they dropped early, doesn't negate them as a factor in retention.
All warfare is based on deception If his forces are united, separate them If you are far from the enemy, make him believe you are near A leader leads by example not by force
My referral code: here What you get: here (1 FREE transfer 7-day FREE sub FREE Jumpstart and Preferred Bundles)