The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

"Despite being careful and doing the necessary research, MMOData.net cannot guarantee the validity of the information found here as it is based on various sources which could be incomplete, inaccurate or otherwise unreliable. Furthermore, all estimates are the opinion of MMOData.net and should be treated as such."

If they won't release real hard numbers, they're hiding them for a reason.

Not necessarily, just because you ask them doesn't mean they have to. Perhaps it's none of your business how much they make.

This was a good read and I will be following this thread for more information

And guess what... the bubble effect of the expansion is wearing out.

Checking xfire.com WoW had 60k hours of play a couple of weeks ago and has now droped to 30k. GW2 is now down to 18k.
Give it a couple more months and we will see what dumbing down your game so 5 year olds can play them really ammounts to.

Oddly enough, SWTOR seems to be the only one not declining at the moment. I am predicting a rise from the ashes with F2P and the makeb mini-expansion.

Ah... this kind of post again...

Newsflash: Website with studies on information > information pulled out of rear end.
Every study is just that, it does not represent exact numbers but something close. The official company is the only one that has the exact numbers, and obviously they arent in a sharing mood cause it affects their stock market shares.

Sorry, but that's just plain disingenuous pseudo-science.

There's no way you can empirically measure "expectations" or indeed anything to do with "how well" something should or should not have done.

There is nothing scientific about this thread, it's just statistics and whilst they can be used to help see the wood for the trees, they are not in and of themselves "scientific", any more than sticking a drink in a Erlenmeyer Flask embues it with "science".


There's simply too many variables to draw anything but they most general conclusions about anything in this respect.

And nothing in this thread precludes another "WoW" (although nothing really supports it either).




All you can say with what you present is that SWTOR has average to very poor retention (the variablity of the last data point for SWTOR his HUGE) for a MMORPG launched in the last 5 years..... which isn't really saying a lot.

It's all just guesstimates.

Sadly, your comments show you don't understand things any better.

SWG was NOT doing great until changes. It was in steady freefall, bleeding subscribers who didn't like the game for a multitude of reasons (although it was quoted that the most cited reason was "doesn't feel like Star Wars" - I took that same exit poll). That's the reason FOR the changes! Changes weren't made just to see how much they could screw around with the game - it only FELT that way.

People have a very nostalgic view of SWG but in all honesty, most didn't REALLY like it for many different reasons while it was open (and that sentiment got WORSE, as the changes alienated those still there instead of bringing others back) and THAT was the reason it was sunsetted...

I will disagree with you completely however on the scientific nature of the thread. Numbers and statistical analysis is science itself. In MMO's we can debate game theory all we want, the only things that is consistent is the market reaction to the games measured by the subscription numbers.

Expectations are assumptions (hypotheses) without factual basis until they are tested. We can apply methodology to determine why we were so off base with these assumptions. That is science.

Thank you for making my point without realizing you just did. /tiphat

This is exactly the point. After reviewing all the data assuming this game or any other game at all could be the next WoW is a very bad bet to make. Many of us made it and are still holding the game to that standard, which is a flawed approach.

Now the very poor retention comment is hyperbole. It is anywhere from average to above average based on the info they gave us.

We will have a new statement from EA on the SWTOR subscription numbers next week. At that point I will completely reassess again based on those numbers.

No, it is simply a tool. Without relevent emprical data (which just says what I said it said), it is meaningless.


No, it is hokum dressed up with pseudo-science and dab of make-up. You can't emprically test expectations.

What exactly is the unit of "expectation" or "assumption" for that matter?


Unless your point was the one I made (which was basically all this thread shows in regards to WoWs success is nothing) then I don't know what you mean.

Many many people said before SWTOR that trying to make WoW again wasn't ever likely to equal it, there's nothing new or amazing about that.

Innovation might do that, but the problem with corporate driven "creativity" is it moves towards the least risk, which is exactly why all we have in the games industry at the present are copies and copies of copies which diminish in sales with each generation.






Guessimates are fine, but to pretend we can do anything other than that is just plain silly.

It's not correct at all. See my earlier post. Kay thanx.