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Random number generator for reverse engineering flaky

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Random number generator for reverse engineering flaky

Grondar's Avatar


Grondar
10.12.2012 , 05:28 AM | #1
Either the percentage of 20% chance to reverse engineer a standard item is the wrong number or someone has coded the random number generator for the engineering algorithm wrong.
I've noticed that it is almost impossible to reverse engineer certain items, in this particular case a barrel.

The item mentions the 20% chance, yet in 30 attempts I have gotten zero schematics. Now, I know that 20% chance does not mean that in 5 attempts you should be getting an assured schematic, because, yes, every attempt is a new one. However, given enough attempts and making enough rolls, the numbers should approximate 20% yay and 80% nay. Basic math says the chance of me not getting a schematic 30 times in a row is .8^30 = 0.123 percent. And this is not an exception, it often takes 25 or more attempts to reverse engineer.
Has anyone else experienced these skewed numbers while reverse engineering certain items?

Totaltrash's Avatar


Totaltrash
10.12.2012 , 05:49 AM | #2
Quote: Originally Posted by Grondar View Post
Either the percentage of 20% chance to reverse engineer a standard item is the wrong number or someone has coded the random number generator for the engineering algorithm wrong.
I've noticed that it is almost impossible to reverse engineer certain items, in this particular case a barrel.

The item mentions the 20% chance, yet in 30 attempts I have gotten zero schematics. Now, I know that 20% chance does not mean that in 5 attempts you should be getting an assured schematic, because, yes, every attempt is a new one. However, given enough attempts and making enough rolls, the numbers should approximate 20% yay and 80% nay. Basic math says the chance of me not getting a schematic 30 times in a row is .8^30 = 0.123 percent. And this is not an exception, it often takes 25 or more attempts to reverse engineer.
Has anyone else experienced these skewed numbers while reverse engineering certain items?
I know what you mean - my artifice crafter had one heck of a time getting the schematics for a blue hilt (I think it was Might 18) - it took about 40 tries to get the schematics, while all the other hilts produced the schematics in 1-10 tries.

Theoretically, you could be so unlucky that you never learn the schematics - if the quarter lands heads up 1000 times in a row, it still only has a 50% chance to come up tails when you flip it for the 1001 time.

Random number generation in computers is not truly random (only a pretty good approximation). This might be one of the causes.
Another possibility is that 20% might not really be coded as 20% across all RE-able items - I suspect this might be the most likely explanation.

Telanis's Avatar


Telanis
10.12.2012 , 08:39 AM | #3
Quote: Originally Posted by Grondar View Post
Basic math says the chance of me not getting a schematic 30 times in a row is .8^30 = 0.123 percent.
0.123% is still thousands upon thousands of RE attempts since there have been millions done in the game.

Quote:
And this is not an exception, it often takes 25 or more attempts to reverse engineer.
I doubt that, you're probably suffering from confirmation bias as so many others have. (It's natural, I'm not blaming you.) I've gone over 50 attempts for one item, which was my longest streak and has a 0.0014% chance. My best streak however is 7 in a row on the first attempt, which is a 0.0013% chance. You'll note that's less likely yet it still happened

BioWare has the stats and checks them, because they've fixed RE chance errors before based on them, so I wouldn't worry about it. Any one player's results aren't statistically meaningful.

Personally I think the chance should be lowered but made guaranteed after 5, so the overall average chance remains at 20% but the process is less frustrating, but that's a separate discussion.

Chaffery's Avatar


Chaffery
10.12.2012 , 10:16 AM | #4
Well, I have method for increasing RE proc. I have 7 toons from range lv19 to lv42 and I have reverse engineered a lot of green items in to blue.
Apparently in game "random" generator is wheeling system and nothing else and "wheel" has it's reset timer.
I don't know exactly yet how long takes reset wheel but let's say you want RE something.
Craft 5 items, RE them, if you don't get proc, craft another 5 and forget about those items for several hours (3-4).
Log out from that char, just do something else. After 3-4 hours log on to that char again and try RE.
Mostly like you will get proc from first 3 items, this method is been working for me so many times.
Seems like entire wheeling system is bit sluggish, same goes with missions. If you start mission after wheel is been reset, first 2 missions mostly like have very high proc rate. Then wheel starts shifting again.
I just resubbed today, so I had not enough time test everything, servers vent "Kablah".

So here is the question for BW, could please we have truly random system with out any negative modifiers BS?
Your current system causing a lot of anger, I don't think so that you could afford loose more players.
Thing is, players who willing to RE something, they will, no matter how many failed attempts it takes but peoples who are "gifted" with patience are minority.
This game has wonderful crafting system, make it interesting for more than "few selected peoples", this "artificial hard mode" is pointless.

Kogart's Avatar


Kogart
10.12.2012 , 11:01 AM | #5
Quote: Originally Posted by Grondar View Post
Either the percentage of 20% chance to reverse engineer a standard item is the wrong number or someone has coded the random number generator for the engineering algorithm wrong.
I've noticed that it is almost impossible to reverse engineer certain items, in this particular case a barrel.

The item mentions the 20% chance, yet in 30 attempts I have gotten zero schematics. Now, I know that 20% chance does not mean that in 5 attempts you should be getting an assured schematic, because, yes, every attempt is a new one.
Random Number Generator is ok. You are just unlucky.
Server: (EU) Tomb of Freedon Nadd
Legacy: 50
Sage 55 Kogart (SR)

twyztd_valkyrie's Avatar


twyztd_valkyrie
10.12.2012 , 12:25 PM | #6
Does your skill level have an effect on this? Because for me it takes only a few attempts, if it doesn't work on the first try, to get blue schems -- and purple only take about double the amount. 400 cyber. If not, then I must be mostly lucky, and you're just unlucky right now
"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

nbayer's Avatar


nbayer
10.12.2012 , 12:30 PM | #7
Stand on the bed in your ship and click the RE button with your left hand, I've heard it fixes some kind of wheel.

Walking-Carpet's Avatar


Walking-Carpet
10.12.2012 , 12:51 PM | #8
Quote: Originally Posted by nbayer View Post
Stand on the bed in your ship and click the RE button with your left hand, I've heard it fixes some kind of wheel.
You forgot to mention that you must first circle the bed three times widdershins with your primary weapon drawn!

Atrix_Wolfe's Avatar


Atrix_Wolfe
10.12.2012 , 01:01 PM | #9
Quote: Originally Posted by Chaffery View Post
Well, I have method for increasing RE proc. I have 7 toons from range lv19 to lv42 and I have reverse engineered a lot of green items in to blue.
Apparently in game "random" generator is wheeling system and nothing else and "wheel" has it's reset timer.
I don't know exactly yet how long takes reset wheel but let's say you want RE something.
Craft 5 items, RE them, if you don't get proc, craft another 5 and forget about those items for several hours (3-4).
Log out from that char, just do something else. After 3-4 hours log on to that char again and try RE.
Mostly like you will get proc from first 3 items, this method is been working for me so many times.
Seems like entire wheeling system is bit sluggish, same goes with missions. If you start mission after wheel is been reset, first 2 missions mostly like have very high proc rate. Then wheel starts shifting again.
I just resubbed today, so I had not enough time test everything, servers vent "Kablah".

So here is the question for BW, could please we have truly random system with out any negative modifiers BS?
Your current system causing a lot of anger, I don't think so that you could afford loose more players.
Thing is, players who willing to RE something, they will, no matter how many failed attempts it takes but peoples who are "gifted" with patience are minority.
This game has wonderful crafting system, make it interesting for more than "few selected peoples", this "artificial hard mode" is pointless.
That's a classic Type I error. We're wired to see and learn from patterns and have a really hard time when faced with random numbers. It's like a mental optical illusion.

Chaffery's Avatar


Chaffery
10.12.2012 , 10:09 PM | #10
Quote: Originally Posted by Atrix_Wolfe View Post
That's a classic Type I error. We're wired to see and learn from patterns and have a really hard time when faced with random numbers. It's like a mental optical illusion.
Have you tried? Prove that I'm wrong, if it works for me, then it should work same way for you also.
I'm guessing you forgot about game flaws, this is one flaw I have discovered some time ago.
Obviously now timer gets "fixed" buy increasing reset timer but it still will work and it will work till result generation will be replaced with another system.
Same way as slicing nodes got "fixed", slicing nodes still respawn in same places, just timer got changed from 3 minutes to 30, that's it.
Looking more deeper in to game mechanics helps reduce unnecessary grid.