Servers on the decline again....

The truth hurts doesn't it?

Are we supposed to cheer at Bioware and clap our hands when they're ruining a game with such potential?

HAH! Funny.

so when 1.4 comes out and server population goes through the roof again do we get to say SWTOR is increasing subs? Or can we just agree that looking at server population go up and down is just a natural cycle.

so when 1.4 comes out and server population goes through the roof again do we get to say SWTOR is increasing subs? Or can we just agree that looking at server population go up and down is just a natural cycle.

TL;DR - It's about a 4% drop from last Monday's numbers which is small and well within the variability we've seen in the last month. Let's wait for more data - too early to ID a drop at this point in time.


I think that I can say that I know as much about estimating what's going on with server populations as any other resident of these forums (link to my threads here, here, here, here, here, here, and here. Links to my spreadsheets here, and here.)

I've done a lot of math and a lot of study at this problem. I have pondered Torstatus numbers for months, talked to the Torstatus guys, done censuses of servers, and gone to the mat for and against what feels like half the numbers people in this community about numbers going up and numbers going down and numbers going sideways.

Here's what I've seen for the numbers of simultaneous concurrent logins (as a 2 week average from Torstatus). If you want to know how I got to these numbers and what they might mean, go here for an explanation.

Date Logins
6/27/2012 32,834
6/29/2012 34,310
7/2/2012 35,383
7/10/2012 35,160
7/16/2012 35,853
7/23/2012 35,827
7/30/2012 34,490

There's a teeny twitch downward in the last couple of weeks... but that's well within the range of variation seen in the last month or so.

Let's put this in perspective. Taken together as a summed aggregate, all 26 destination servers summed together dropped 1.76 phi. Taken together as a summed aggregate, all 26 destination servers summed together have a combined phi of 48.85. So that's like a 4% drop.

Could be that BW added capacity. Could be that people are on vacation. Could mean that people are playing The Secret World, or going to see The Dark Knight Rises, or watching the Olympics, or who knows what. Or it could be people quit the game.

Let's all take a deep breath and be rational. I will look at the numbers again next Monday. One data point isn't a trend. Even two data points aren't a trend. Let's just see where the data goes.

Paige

Thanks again Scorpienne for your data. As usual, the doomsayers will ignore your hard data and throw their speculation around. I'd say a 4% drop isn't too bad at a time like this what with the Olympics, summer movies, and GW2 beta weekends.

Regardless of overall sub numbers, the game is thriving on my server (Ebon Hawk). If I'm having fun, I'll keep playing.

Thanks again Scorpienne for your data. As usual, the doomsayers will ignore your hard data and throw their speculation around. I'd say a 4% drop isn't too bad at a time like this what with the Olympics, summer movies, and GW2 beta weekends.

Regardless of overall sub numbers, the game is thriving on my server (Ebon Hawk). If I'm having fun, I'll keep playing.

Looking over TOR status (which by its nature is NOT a good predictor of subs) I see SLIGHT decline. That's in line with the tendency to rush into the content and then stop logging in as people wait for new content.

You don't even see the decline on some servers. It's perfectly level on many of them.

I'm not worried. When we declined from 1.7 to 1.3, it was much more dramatic.

Then keep playing, if you enjoy the game so much why sit here and get mad at people you don't and shouldn't care about.