EA shareholders meeting: over/under 300k subs?

We were the ones begging for the server mergers

And why was that exactly? Do you remember? It was because most servers couldn't get enough people together for a freaking Ops.

This.

Until we get past August, the subscription numbers are likely to be unintentionally inflated.

Of course, if something enticing happens before the end of August, the numbers could end up being accurate (or even low).

I'll preface this by saying I love SWTOR, understand that young MMOs require patience, expect it to grow and expand, and am dismayed by the rumor-mongering, negativity, and extreme obsession with subscription numbers.

Current subscriber numbers will likely be revealed on July 31, with the quarterly investor call.

Feb 2011: EA CEO indicates 500k subscribers means SWTOR is "substantially profitable."
http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wa...ers-ea-6297338

That number for profitability could have changed since then (up or down), based on development cost, services, staff reduction, etc etc.

Assuming that profit margin stayed the same, they have a substantial surplus of revenue from boxed copies and subs based on the numbers from launch to May (even if you factor in the included month at launch and the 1.2 free month).

The bottom line is: I believe that unless subscribers dip less than 200k or so, the game is financially fine with the current subscription model. Even then, it's not "dead," by any means.

As for layoffs and restructuring of the development team, that is a natural cycle of game development and we as bystanders don't know how much of that (if any) is due to budgetary concerns due to sales. Even so, it may not be a good indicator of the future development or sustainability of the game. Also, anyone that has ever worked on a *huge* development project or witnessed bureaucracy can attest to to the fact that more cooks in the kitchen does not necessarily result in a better meal.

In my opinion, the #1 threat to the game at this point is the community itself and the (I believe unfounded) negative perception of the game on the Internet. There are thousands of people playing the game every day and enjoying it, but it is a struggle to attract new players to the game if their first and only impressions of the game are extremely negative rants from people championing the game to fail. Heralding the death of a game can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Id say itll be around the same maybe around 1million.

Game has been gaining since then I think. Maybe it lost more between the last conference report and 1.3 and the mergers but its been recovering since then.

Worse case I say around 850k.
1 million most likely.
1.3m best case.

Based on the "Concurrent login" thread somewhere around here at around 36,000, and the quote that "at any time 10% of the total population are logged on" I would guess initially 360,000. Add in the number of people with subs who are not logging in 'cause they have quit and those with free trials I'll add in another 100,000. Then I'll add another 40,000 as padding for the fact that the concurrent login thread is only an average estimate.

So I am guessing around 500,000 subscriptions. But stable.

The server mergers were a good thing. The very limited transfer to what server you wanted was a very bad thing. I still know players who are waiting to transfer toons to servers of their choice. Many are not subbing till they can. I am sure other people have the same story.

I would guess 250K-500K subs right now.

683,249. Boom.

Add to that that the merges came much later then they should have.

Guessing between 900k-1 million.