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Reverse Engineer 20% Broken

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineer 20% Broken

Liokae's Avatar


Liokae
07.10.2012 , 09:20 PM | #11
Quote: Originally Posted by DropbearSW View Post
yes.. i know basic probability theory.. still says that in a large sample, 1 in 5 should pop.
Yes. What you're failing to understand is that, in terms of probability, your entire crewskill production from launch until this moment isn't a 'large sample'.

pjskull's Avatar


pjskull
07.10.2012 , 09:35 PM | #12
RNG is R

RicoFrost's Avatar


RicoFrost
07.10.2012 , 10:09 PM | #13
Its random... that is all.... move along....
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Talimar's Avatar


Talimar
07.10.2012 , 10:17 PM | #14
Let me say nicely what the other insensitve people are saying.

It's random, and yeah, it feels like it's broken, but really it isn't. The other night I RE'd the same thing 34 times before it popped, then I RE'd something else and it popped immediately.

It sucks sometimes, but it's not broken.

I feel your pain.

Superpasta's Avatar


Superpasta
07.10.2012 , 10:44 PM | #15
Let put it the other way, you don't get 20% chance of each try to success.

You are getting 80% chance of each try to fail.

So instead of 20% x 5 = 100% success in RE. You are facing 80% x 5 = 400% FAIL!!! in RE.

Does it make you feel you were actually very very luck to sucess in only 1 out of 10 attempts now???

DaMathGeek's Avatar


DaMathGeek
07.10.2012 , 10:55 PM | #16
I'd say you have about a 10% chance of not getting a new schematic after 10 tries on a single item.

Proof is left as an exercise for the reader.

Morrolan's Avatar


Morrolan
07.10.2012 , 11:02 PM | #17
Quote: Originally Posted by Liokae View Post
Yes. What you're failing to understand is that, in terms of probability, your entire crewskill production from launch until this moment isn't a 'large sample'.
Actually in statistical terms it would be, assuming he REs regularly, representative samples can seem quite small.
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RCtruckRacer's Avatar


RCtruckRacer
07.10.2012 , 11:04 PM | #18
There are no true random numbers when it comes to computers. Computers use an algorithm and a seed number (often the CPU clock) to generate a seemingly random number. Technically, they are pseudo-random numbers.

If anyone didn't know, the RE was bonked when the game first came out. I suspect that it is still off a bit. Though, it is MUCH better than it was. I sure am curious as to what algorithm and seed they are using.
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Liokae's Avatar


Liokae
07.10.2012 , 11:21 PM | #19
Quote: Originally Posted by RCtruckRacer View Post
There are no true random numbers when it comes to computers. Computers use an algorithm and a seed number (often the CPU clock) to generate a seemingly random number. Technically, they are pseudo-random numbers.
Sure, but if you want to break it down that far, we have no method of generating actual random numbers at all. The closest we've got is a place that uses multi-step randomizing based off precision atmospheric measurements, but even that would be deterministic with enough knowledge. Algorithm + unpredictable seed gives you 'functionally random', which is plenty close enough to truly random for the purposes of measurement.

UltimateLemon's Avatar


UltimateLemon
07.10.2012 , 11:33 PM | #20
Quote: Originally Posted by Superpasta View Post
Let put it the other way, you don't get 20% chance of each try to success.

You are getting 80% chance of each try to fail.

So instead of 20% x 5 = 100% success in RE. You are facing 80% x 5 = 400% FAIL!!! in RE.

Does it make you feel you were actually very very luck to sucess in only 1 out of 10 attempts now???
That's still not true. In order for 5 tries of 20% to beome 100%, you have to eliminate tried choice.

For example, let's say there are 5 numbers; 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. You have 20% probability of picking 5. If I pick 2 then I'm within the 80% failure bracket. If I put 2 back to the mix, I still have 20% probability of picking 5. If I remove 2, then I have 25% chance of picking 5.

In this case, we are putting the 2 back into the mix. So you will ALWAYS have 20% chance of picking 5. In theory if I pick enough times, I SHOULD have 20% success rate. However, this isn't really guaranteed. Refer to Law of large numbers.