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O.K. - Crafting is screwed up.

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
O.K. - Crafting is screwed up.

FormlessOne's Avatar


FormlessOne
06.29.2012 , 10:37 PM | #21
Quote: Originally Posted by Samoth_Nomad View Post
I'll chime in here with my experience since 1.3. I'm DEFINITELY seeing an increase to mission failures. All of my companions are 10k. Rarely did they ever fail a standard gathering mission(maybe 1 in 100). As of today, they failure rate seems to be about 50%.
I'm also seeing a spike in failed missions. It's difficult enough to do anything other than combat in this game - there's so little incentive to do anything other than combat - without placing arbitrary hurdles in the way.

Veeius's Avatar


Veeius
06.30.2012 , 02:18 AM | #22
you don't need a phd in math to understand basic probability. No, 20% chance does not mean that if you do 5 re's you'll get a pattern, but it DOES mean that if you consistently are doing 15 to 20 (or more) RE's, something is wrong.

Its like flipping a coin, and finding that over a fairly large number of flips, you're getting heads 4 times out of 5. Time to try out a new coin (OR, time to take that coin to the back alley & make some bets).

asbalana's Avatar


asbalana
07.03.2012 , 11:44 AM | #23
It has been five days since my OP and thought I would let this thread die with my observations since then.

1 - REing is indeed screwed up. I have tried to RE four times since my first post. My failure count comes simply from noting the number of augment slot components I end up with after starting with zero.

The first try was to RE a blule Vibroknife - probability 10%. I ended up quitting after 48 tries. The probability of 48 fails in a row is about .64% (a little over six tenths of one percent).

The second try was to RE two different blue implants at the same time - probability of each at 10%. It took 57 attempts to get my first purple. The probability of that is .25% (or once out of 400 such runs). It then took 16 tries to get the other purple.

I then tried to RE a helmet from blue with a probability of 10% and got it after 19 tries.

One of the strangest things happened in the three cases where I did get a purple. In each case, there were three or four blues left over and in each case when I REed them just for mats, I hit a second purple schematic. It is pure crazy but it seems that after the first hit, a second from the same blue is very likely.

My wife has had similar experiences with Synth and her tries at armormech.

If I look at the probability of my first two efforts (48 misses and then gave up and 57 and then hit for 105 misses in a row), I believe that the probability is about .0016%

Are these results possible? Of course. Are they likely? No? Either my wife and I are the most unlucky people in the world, or there is something grossly wrong with REing. I choose the second option.

I would say to BW that any crafting structure where it is possible (even if it were not screwed up) to go 105 trials before a hit, is very very poor game design to the point that it bewilders me.

2 - I did not keep a count, but am still seeing more and more companions returning from missions with the message that the mission was a failure.

3 - I am also seeing the sucess rate of Slicing and other gathering mission much below the point prior to 1.3. By sucess rate I mean the percentage of missions that return purple mats.

As far as observations 2 - and 3 - above, I am not sure about the cause of the change, but am sure that a change for the worse has occurred. I suspect that the failed mission jump and mission sucess drop are the result of a stealth nerf to crafting. I suspect further that BW did not want to announce the changes and take the heat and just sneaked it in. The beauty of doing that from their prospective is that in a rng based system, no player can prove what was done.

I did put in a ticked concering the mission failure rate and after about three days recieved a canned response that my question had been referred to the devs and that it would be considered in due course.

GnatB's Avatar


GnatB
07.03.2012 , 12:29 PM | #24
Quote: Originally Posted by asbalana View Post
The first try was to RE a blue Vibroknife - probability 10%. I ended up quitting after 48 tries. The probability of 48 fails in a row is about .64% (a little over six tenths of one percent).
I'm afraid I may have stole all your successes. Crafted a set of blue vibroknives. (10 of 'em). already knew 1 purple, (vehemence, IIRC, but really want expert).

2nd RE was expert.
4th RE was also a schematic
5th too.
6th as well.

As to the OP, I'll agree that my perception is missions are failing a LOT more often than they used to. That being said, I suspect it's because I'm running a lot more missions now that CAN fail, which is skewing my perception. Before patch 1.3, while I was doing some higher end missions when I was running low on parts, and somewhat stockpiling shortly before 1.3, by and large I was mostly doing midrange missions pushing out items to sell (and trying to learn lower level augment schems). So the vast majority of the missions I was running were grey, and basically couldn't fail. Since 1.3, I've pretty much been doing NOTHING but grade 6 missions across alll my characters, and of course, they are green or yellow, and thus CAN fail.

edit: Also, I've been doing the FASTEST missions I can (especially for UT) which means I've also been getting results far more frequently, so the number of failures has likely gone up due to that, as well.

Walking-Carpet's Avatar


Walking-Carpet
07.03.2012 , 01:20 PM | #25
For what it's worth, I'll add my observations over the last few days, since I've been running a lot of missions.

Between Friday, 6/29, and Monday, 7/2, I leveled Diplomacy, Investigation, Treasure Hunting, and Underworld Trading on four characters from about 350 to 400.

Those characters' companions are all between 6000 and 6200 affection.

I estimate the total number of missions run at around 120 (about 30 missions per character).

I don't believe I had any failures whatsoever in Diplomacy, Treasure Hunting, or Underworld Trading. However, I had about half a dozen failures in Investigation.

So, failure rate over the entire 120 missions was about 5%. Failure rate on all missions except Investigation was 0%. Failure rate on Investigation missions was about 20%.

Note that I'm not making any claims about whether or not the RNG is working properly. IMO, my sample size is far too small to be statistically relevant. I'm only posting this information because the OP requested information about other players' experiences after Patch 1.3 went live.

Bugattiboy's Avatar


Bugattiboy
07.03.2012 , 01:25 PM | #26
Quote:
O.K. - Crafting is screwed up.
You're just noticing this now?

Telanis's Avatar


Telanis
07.03.2012 , 02:46 PM | #27
Quote: Originally Posted by asbalana View Post
The first try was to RE a blule Vibroknife - probability 10%. I ended up quitting after 48 tries. The probability of 48 fails in a row is about .64% (a little over six tenths of one percent).

[...]

Are these results possible? Of course. Are they likely? No? Either my wife and I are the most unlucky people in the world, or there is something grossly wrong with REing. I choose the second option.
48 fails in a row is much less than a 0.64% chance, but with millions and millions of REs being performed I promise it's not that uncommon. If there are a million players and all do one set of 48 REs per day, that's 22 people per day with such a streak (by my numbers). Yeah some people don't craft and many don't play every day, but the number of nonstop crafters probably makes up for that. I've had a few such streaks myself.

The problem is that only the few people who run into such a bad streak come here and post. The people who aren't having bad luck don't come and post; if they did, I promise you would be completely drowned out. It only seems like a lot of people are having problems because almost no one having success would bother to post.

Note that 7 successful REs in a row is less likely than 48 failed ones at a 20% chance. I've had positive streaks like that also.

Telanis's Avatar


Telanis
07.03.2012 , 02:47 PM | #28
Quote: Originally Posted by Walking-Carpet View Post
Note that I'm not making any claims about whether or not the RNG is working properly. IMO, my sample size is far too small to be statistically relevant.
THIS. Thank you for knowing what you're talking about.