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Reverse Engineering Simulation

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering Simulation

Bristol's Avatar


Bristol
06.20.2012 , 09:52 AM | #1
After being frustrated with not getting a new schematic after 15 reverse engineering attempts, I decided to write a program to simulate the 20% chance of learning a new schematic using reverse engineering.

The following data assumes that you successfully learned 100,000 new schematics. In order to achieve this, the simulation had to reverse engineer 512,634 items. Which, when you look at the numbers, is really close to 1/5 or 20%.

I found it interesting that the highest occurance of successful reverse engineering attempts was with only 1 attempt. 18,016 Schematics were disovered on the very 1st attempt. So, to extrapolate on that, for every 5.54939 schematics that you learn, you should have learned one of them on the very first attempt.

On the down side however, in order to learn 1 of the 100,000 scematics, the simulation had to reverse engineer 54 times. So I don't feel so bad about the 15 attempts anymore.

If I could figure out how, or if we can add pictures, I'd post the distribution plot.

18,016 (18.02%) - RE 1x
16,046 (16.05%) - RE 2x
13,453 (13.45%) - RE 3x
10,044 (10.04%) - RE 4x
8,617 (8.62%) - RE 5x
6,739 (6.74%) - RE 6x
5,433 (5.43%) - RE 7x
4,255 (4.26%) - RE 8x
3,533 (3.53%) - RE 9x
2,745 (2.75%) - RE 10x
2,230 (2.23%) - RE 11x
1,766 (1.77%) - RE 12x
1,398 (1.40%) - RE 13x
1,158 (1.16%) - RE 14x
897 (0.90%) - RE 15x
...
2 (0.0020%) - RE 45x
...
1 (0.0010%) - RE 54x

Extrapolations:
  • If you make 1 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 18.02% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 2 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 34.04% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 3 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 47.52% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 4 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 57.56% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 5 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 66.18% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 10 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 88.88% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 15 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 96.33% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 20 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 98.77% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 25 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 99.61% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 30 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 99.87% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
..-. .-. .- .. ... . .-. / -... .-. .. ... - --- .-..
.--. ..- .-. --. .

parmie's Avatar


parmie
06.20.2012 , 09:57 AM | #2
I have a sliding scale - < 5 attempts results in: = 5 attempts results in: , >5 attempts ranges from to

gallowan's Avatar


gallowan
06.20.2012 , 03:30 PM | #3
It took me over 200 Black Hole Comms to learn my first implant.

But it has now been well worth it.

Maccha's Avatar


Maccha
06.20.2012 , 03:33 PM | #4
It's 20% per item. So if you do 50 RE's, it's 20% chance per item. It does not scale by the amount of attempts. It resets each time. RNG is complicated.

YanksfanJP's Avatar


YanksfanJP
06.20.2012 , 03:52 PM | #5
Quote: Originally Posted by parmie View Post
I have a sliding scale - < 5 attempts results in: = 5 attempts results in: , >5 attempts ranges from to
winner
I'm not arrogant. I'm just aware of my greatness.

GnatB's Avatar


GnatB
06.20.2012 , 05:08 PM | #6
Quote: Originally Posted by Bristol View Post
Extrapolations:
  • If you make 1 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 18.02% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 2 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 34.04% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 3 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 47.52% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 4 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 57.56% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 5 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 66.18% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 10 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 88.88% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 15 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 96.33% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 20 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 98.77% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 25 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 99.61% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
  • If you make 30 Items to Reverse Engineer, there is a 99.87% chance that you should get a new Schematic.
Maths (rounding to nearest %, until in the 90's):
1 item should be 20% or 1-(0.8^1) * 100
2 items should be 36% or 1-(0.8^2) * 100
3 items should be 49% or 1-(0.8^3) * 100
4 items should be 59% or 1-(0.8^4) * 100
5 items should be 66% or 1-(0.8^5) * 100
10 items should be 89% or 1-(0.8^10) * 100
15 items should be 96.48% or (1-0.8^15) * 100
20 items should be 98.85% or 1-(0.8^20) * 100
25 items should be 99.62% or 1-(0.8^25) * 100
30 itesm should be 99.88% or 1-(0.8^30) * 100

So, uhm, yeah. You experimentally demonstrated probability math is acccurate.