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The layoffs have me confused more then anything else. Help?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
The layoffs have me confused more then anything else. Help?

Lurchy's Avatar


Lurchy
05.23.2012 , 06:22 PM | #141
wow the tinfoil hat kid that posted got edited out of the thread pretty damn quick, I did'nt think his post was that unreasonable, unsubstantiated and negative yes but only as unsubstantiated as a lot of the positive stuff that is being said here.
Originally Posted by ErisktheRed
my suggestion, the empire creates the death star early and blows up Illum instead of Alderaan. Problem solved.

Grevlin's Avatar


Grevlin
05.23.2012 , 07:02 PM | #142
Quote: Originally Posted by Lurchy View Post
I am not a proffessional forum user, correct use of all quoting options has never been my strong point, I am a slightly different generation to you
Apology accepted, though it's not that difficult. You can either use the "quote" button in the formatting options, or just copy/paste the tags auto-generated by the 'quote' button in the forum if you want to keep the links to the original posts (what I'm doing, basically).

Quote: Originally Posted by Lurchy View Post
I obviously understand what you want, I am simply stating that you cannot have that in the current set up, If you truly want a seperate forum for just discussing such stuff without the interruptions of disaffected paying customers then maybe the solution would be to pay a premium for this thus differentiating yourself from those people
That might not be a bad idea. Like I said, my main problem was how the complaining seems to be negatively affecting other uses for the forum. It's pretty much become a place to either come complain, read complaints, reply to complaints, etc. I'd like to discuss potential future features for the game, developments for later patches, etc, but it's tough to do that without the thread careening off into the topics of whether or not SWtOR is dying, whether or not server populations are too low, how EA sucks, etc. Whatever's currently being done, it isn't enough and I doubt they'd continue to let this go on without changing their policy. I'm just hoping that they don't implement one that ends up censoring/deleting all complaints or outright banning anyone who doesn't have a paying subscription, which may end up being the case. I saw my suggestion as a decent middle-ground. That's all.

Quote: Originally Posted by Lurchy View Post
I am not saying it's perfect but I dont feel it is as bad as you state
Read the threads on the first page and tell me if you find any without off-topic complaints or doomsday predictions. Considering how many QFT responses after promoting that idea, I don't think I'm the only one who feels that way. In game, the general wisdom (judging by comments in the general chat) seems to be "stay off the forums, it's nothing but trolls". Doing nothing isn't going to make or break the experience (IIRC, Blizzard's had the same problem with the WoW forums for years and they're still doing fine), but I feel it's something that should be addressed. Call it my equivalent of unsub whining. :-P

Quote: Originally Posted by Lurchy View Post
I am not insisting anything just suggesting that my rationale is probably more likely than yours in the real world. I was not offended by the tinfoil hat comment just amused by your condescending manner
"In the real world"? In the real world, you can't just magically change payment models on a whim, and it's harder to make customized responses to each individual customer than to have one universal response. The company's more likely to go with the option that takes less time, less money, and leaves fewer chances for an error to creep into the accounts (so long as that option doesn't cost them a significant amount in potential customers, i.e. people who would refuse to play because they wouldn't get a refund for unused game time in the event of a cancellation). On top of that, this method allows them to keep the revenue from the unused game time anyway (a far more likely motivation than either your or my idea), so you have even more financial motivation for them to stick to this model.

Quote: Originally Posted by Lurchy View Post
I would ask you to quote the source that categorically states that active accounts from cancelled subscriptions do not count towards the 1.3 million number because I seriously doubt this and as one of those I would have issue if it was the case (I can play this game till late august btw)
I'm afraid I don't have that, but the subscriber report goes out of its way to specify the difference between "trial and casual players cycling out of the subscriber base." I'm specifically referring to this exchange here, where a representative from BMO Capital Markets (an investment banking firm) asked specific questions about swtor.

Quote:
Operator

-Edward Williams, BMO Capital Markets.

Edward Williams - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst

-Good afternoon. A couple of quick questions.
-First of all, can you just comment a little bit about the Star Wars trend lines? What we saw out of paying subs? Since the game kind of -- call it since February 1 to now, so as the first billing cycles got passed through how those paying subs or sellers settle down? And then also looking at the digital revenue can you give us some color as
to whether or not digital at this point in fiscal 2013 should be above in line with or below the core operating margins of the Company?

John Riccitiello - Electronic Arts Inc. - CEO

-There was a couple of questions there. Maybe Frank and I will split the Star Wars question. I'll start on the broader margin issue and then Ken can help us out. So, Frank, you want to start on the Star Wars trend line?

Frank Gibeau - Electronic Arts Inc. - President, EA Labels

Yes, sure. The trend line on Star Wars is as follows. When we launched the product back in December, it was an event launch and we brought in a lot of users, and with a brand like Star Wars it reaches out much past the hard-core MMO fan base into the broader market.

And as the service evolves from here what we're seeing is that some of those initial casual customers have gone through a billing cycle and decided not to subscribe to the game.But for the most part, we are seeing very good retention amongst core MMO users, which has given us a solid base of around 1.3 million subscribers.

The percentage of paying subscribers from our peak until now has actually gone up, and the folks that we have are as engaged as they were when they first bought the product. And in fact if you look at how we are going to be releasing content going forward, we have a lot of elder gameplay, a lot of extension content that will keep
them engaged and continue to grow subs.


Make no mistake, BioWare tends to grow subscribers. This quarter alone we released 2 major content upgrades designed to drive subscription loyalty and, again, we have got many more plans throughout the year. We are also having a lot of success with our free-to-play weekends and buddy key promotions which is helping us drive acquisition, and we will continue to hit those. And we are actively planning territory and platform expansions and extensions in Europe and Asia for STAR WARS - The Old Republic. So we feel like we have got a
very strong base that for over the long term we are going to continue to grow.

John Riccitiello - Electronic Arts Inc. - CEO

A couple of quick thoughts on Star Wars before we turn to digital margins. I understand that a lot of investors are very interested in Star Wars. I just wanted to put a couple of thoughts into perspective. This is something Ken mentioned on the call.

First off, Star Wars' performance right now is very much in line with our original assumptions and the assumptions in where we are guiding folks to over the last couple of years. Where that puts it in our portfolio is, in terms of profitability from a franchise, it's in our top 10 but it is not in our top 5. So as a business contributor, while
important, it is not as important as Medal of Honor or Battlefield or FIFA or Madden or the Sims or SimCity but it is more important than Tiger Woods PGA Golf.

So while I understand there is an enormous amount of interest, I don't know that it warrants as much what we're seeing right now. But we love the franchise. We are going to grow the franchise and just like we want to see Tiger Woods Golf grow or SSX grow or Madden, for that matter, we are going to drive this one for growth.

The second thought that I would throw your way relates to your second question, which is digital margins. I would give you 2 bits of context. Where we are in terms of putting our digital services in the marketplace and how profitable they are long term.

In a number of cases, we haven't yet launched a product that is more informative than behind us. The overall business sector -- for example, social is less profitable than our console business as when it carries everything going forward that we have got on our development pipeline.

But as we model business as it scales when these new products get into the marketplace and start generating revenue, it is a more profitable business. And in fact if you track EA's gross profit trends and operating margin trends over the last 3 years, the key contributor to having our gross profit percentage rise and our operating margin percentage rise is in the addition of visual [renovations] that makes us more profitable.

Some businesses get to a great profit profile very quickly like Play4Free. Others are breaking through and getting to good profitability like Origin. Mobile is in a good place. Social is moving to a good place. But all in all, it is a net plus in a big, big way. I think Ken covered it there. So next question
The bolded section indicates that the measurement they're referring to are the currently paying subscribers. There's also this summary earlier in the report:

Quote:
The 143% growth in subscriptions, advertising, and other revenue was driven by the December launch of STAR WARS - The Old Republic. Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars. Through the end of the quarter approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April, we now have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up people who are all percentage of paying subscribers. We have already launched a number of initiatives designed to growth subscriptions. Initial responses have been positive and we are encouraged by the gaming community's reaction.

In summary, we delivered an extraordinary launch of a solidly profitable long-term franchise which contributed to both our gross and operating margin improvement in fiscal 2012. We expect this title will further expand our margins in fiscal 2013 as we get the full year benefit of subscription revenue.

Let me give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base as an impact on our fiscal 2013 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3 million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired [BioWare] in 2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable it only represents a mid-single-digit percent of our total profitability in fiscal 2013.
The language above seems to indicate that the active, paying subscriptions are categorized differently from trials and free time offers. The 1.3 million seems to be primarily composed of these paying subs. You're technically correct that the 1.3 million probably includes subscribers who have cancelled and still have game time. However, the point of contention has to do with just HOW MUCH of the 1.3 million is composed of trials & cancelled subs, which the material seems to indicate is low. However, without additional actions by EA that would indicate trouble (no, the 200 layoffs in the midst of restructuring and "how hiring" adverts on the main page don't indicate trouble. It'd be troubling if there was an overall net reduction in employees, large server shutdowns, cancellations of content updates (the artificial limbs from SWG spring to mind).) and the rather large margin of subscribers they'd have to lose before they were in any kind of trouble, it's hard to conclude that they're in serious trouble.

Now, it's completely possible that I'm entirely off the mark, but the shareholders' info doesn't strike me as the kind of spin a company would employ when they're in serious trouble. At best, it isn't yielding its maximum potential revenue and they're explaining how they plan to change that over the next few years. If it were in trouble, they'd be emphasizing spin about how they need to downsize it to a more "profitable" level or reduce costs. If SWtOR's in serious trouble, the language they're using would probably be misleading enough that shareholders could potentially bring suit against EA's board of directors for misleading investors (violating their fiduciary duties as agents of the shareholders, if you want to get into the legalese). That's why I read the above as "it's not as profitable as it could be, but we're working on it" rather than "it's a sinking ship, and we're going to do whatever we can to save it".

Quote: Originally Posted by Lurchy View Post
That was just a joke on my part (if you mean the comments that you did not quote) sorry if it offended you
I mainly wanted to reply to statements you made that had value. If I reply to the insults, then it'd just escalate to the point that all we did was insult each other, and that's the last thing this forum needs.

Quote: Originally Posted by Lurchy View Post
As for insults? I can actually be very good at those but there would be no point as a moderator would just delete them
Yeah, it's a shame we don't allow more colorful language at least SOMEWHERE in these forums. I have a killer Gunnery Sergeant Hartman impression. :-P

Grevlin's Avatar


Grevlin
05.23.2012 , 07:06 PM | #143
Quote: Originally Posted by Narat View Post
What is there to be confused about? This is a normal business practice. Just like with museums when they finally open the doors and take their first few steps the team that birthed the monster moves on. This is normal and should not be regarded as anything sinister. Development teams are not project visionaries, In fact it would be far better for the general public to have different people making choices and decisions about the current game. They can be more objective and open minded about change. If we kept all the orginal developers and VP's it would be a constant struggle with them regarding vision and reality. THIS IS A GOOD THING....Not to sound mean or callius to those who have moved on but for the community and the game at large this transition is a good step.
I'ono. IIRC, alot of SWG's problems stemmed from the fact that SOE cycled out developers and didn't keep adequate records of the development process, so the subsequent team had a hard time figuring out the code of the game they were trying to maintain (and would then inevitably break things when they tried to implement bug fixes). Don't remember where I heard that, though, so take it with a grain of salt. It may have just been a rumor on the SWG forums during all the CU/NGE hooplah (and sheesh, were there alot of THOSE).

But I doubt Bioware/EA would make the same mistake. Even though Bioware games have been the buggiest out of all the games I played. Although, that's actually excluding SWtOR, as I've run into fewer bugs on it than I have playing Dragon Age: Origins on the PS3 for longer than an hour.

Grevlin's Avatar


Grevlin
05.23.2012 , 07:11 PM | #144
Quote: Originally Posted by Lurchy View Post
wow the tinfoil hat kid that posted got edited out of the thread pretty damn quick, I did'nt think his post was that unreasonable, unsubstantiated and negative yes but only as unsubstantiated as a lot of the positive stuff that is being said here.
It might have been the insult content > 50% that decided it for the moderators. I mean, the substantive elements of his posts (subscriber numbers, percent retention rates), though unsourced, usually came at the end after he went on a tirade that sounded like it came from a badly translated foreign Matrix rip-off. By comparison, he was several times more insulting than you were when your comments got deleted.

Just my two cents. Though it's also possible that they deleted his comments to 'censor the truth'. *Tinfoil Hat*

bobamech's Avatar


bobamech
05.23.2012 , 08:29 PM | #145
Quote: Originally Posted by Grevlin View Post
I was citing not only stock price, but stock trends over the course of the last year for multiple companies in the same industry. The fact that they seem to follow a similar pattern with the post Nov '11 dip would seem to indicate that there are market-wide factors influencing EA's current stock price more strongly than other potential factors that have been cited here (such as some less-than-positive SWtOR news, which came out rather recently and don't seem to correlate with any significant drop in the stock price). However, that was in a discussion with another person. I don't recall citing stock prices anywhere in my discussion with you. Only the shareholders' reports.
I was referring to your other comments to the other posters. If you are an investor of EA, why would you be comparing your company to other companies? You should be focusing on EA *only* especially when the gaming industry itself is extremely volatile.

Quote:
Could you be specific which "terminologies" and the "real meanings" you're referring to? Could you also explain ... implies that SWtOR is in any way suffering as an MMO?
"Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars. Through the end of the quarter approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April, we now have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber "

1.7M -> 1.3M at the end of April. This only considers active accounts, not active players. Again this is a shareholder event so no point in mentioning active population. People care about how much revenue a game is making them, not how many people are playing. Active accounts encompass trial players, subscribed accounts, inactive subscriptions. He also never defined the word "casual." I defined my thoughts on the word casual in an earlier post.

"driving up people who are all percentage of paying subscribers. We have already launched a number of initiatives designed to growth subscriptions. Initial responses have been positive and we are encouraged by the gaming community's reaction. "

A number of initiatives in layman's terms could include hot patches, the rak ghoul event, communication on public forums following 1.2, offering free trial events, etc. "Initial responses have been positive" just means that initially people think it's cool. It makes no reference to actual forecasting or current trends following that. There's no reason for them to panic their investors by mentioning it.

If you deduced all that, you will realize it's suffering as a MMO. The fact that server populations, not active subscribers, at prime time is a clear indication of declining trends.

Quote:
By the way, could you specify what training/experience you have that would give you greater insight into these "real business terminologies" you refer to?
Lastly, you don't need training to deduce this. You will figure this out after you start working for corporations and listen to your SVP/CTOs give spiels about your last quarterly results from your projects. No one is going to tell you, "we're doing bad guys."

The glass is always half full.

WLpride's Avatar


WLpride
05.23.2012 , 08:52 PM | #146
They should have made a mention of new hirees that they've taken on simultaneously... common sense.

Grevlin's Avatar


Grevlin
05.23.2012 , 09:15 PM | #147
Quote: Originally Posted by bobamech View Post
I was referring to your other comments to the other posters. If you are an investor of EA, why would you be comparing your company to other companies? You should be focusing on EA *only* especially when the gaming industry itself is extremely volatile.
If you'll remember, the comment that elicited my response was-

Quote:
Citing stock price isn't helping your argument.
And as I said, I only focused on stock price in a debate with another person where the performance of the stock was the primary issue. The comparison was to demonstrate that there was an industry-wide slump not unique to EA, as opposed to the stock price drop being strictly an element of EA (as the person I was speaking to had claimed). And in case you're not aware, comparing EA's stock to other companies in the same field will tell you how the field itself is performing, how the company is performing compared to others in the same field, and how both the company and other companies are doing compared to the overall market. All of this would yield information on the performance of the stock & the company, and all of this would be relevant to investment decisions.

Quote: Originally Posted by bobamech View Post
"Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars. Through the end of the quarter approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April, we now have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber "

1.7M -> 1.3M at the end of April. This only considers active accounts, not active players. Again this is a shareholder event so no point in mentioning active population. People care about how much revenue a game is making them, not how many people are playing. Active accounts encompass trial players, subscribed accounts, inactive subscriptions. He also never defined the word "casual." I defined my thoughts on the word casual in an earlier post.
Actually, they did mention the active population. Read the comment two entries above yours where I quoted the relevant items in the transcript of the Q4 FY12 conference call. The use of the word casual was also measured against an opposing example in the "more active players". Take that with the dictionary definition of the word "casual", and it's very likely that they mean "less active". And again, they DID talk about the ratio of paying subscribers to non-paying subscribers, indicating that it was high and stable, leading to a significant profit.

Quote: Originally Posted by bobamech View Post
"driving up people who are all percentage of paying subscribers. We have already launched a number of initiatives designed to growth subscriptions. Initial responses have been positive and we are encouraged by the gaming community's reaction. "

A number of initiatives in layman's terms could include hot patches, the rak ghoul event, communication on public forums following 1.2, offering free trial events, etc. "Initial responses have been positive" just means that initially people think it's cool. It makes no reference to actual forecasting or current trends following that. There's no reason for them to panic their investors by mentioning it.
Again, I refer to two comments above you where I quoted from the transcript. It's rather apparent that they're referring to 1.1 & 1.2 as their "initiatives". "Initial responses have been positive" means that the impressions upon release have been positive, and this means that the updates are being positively received. It's also hard to get more than "initial responses" a month past release (Imagine if movies declared the total gross ticket sales 4 days from release. That makes about the same amount of sense.). And, again, if you actually read the transcript, you would see that the question and answer directly above was about the future trends you claim weren't discussed.

Quote: Originally Posted by bobamech View Post
If you deduced all that, you will realize it's suffering as a MMO. The fact that server populations, not active subscribers, at prime time is a clear indication of declining trends.
And your source for this is...?

I'm sorry, but just about every claim you've made is either unsourced or directly contradicted by the investor materials. If the game were failing, then EA would be cutting back production and cancelling the big updates. Instead, every indication is that they intend to expand production and push further development into the future. Businesses don't tend to sink money into failing projects. They'd be more likely to start shrinking their work force by a significant margin and more immediately shutting down servers (far more than the 200 employees laid off as part of the restructuring, and they certainly wouldn't be planning to purchase entirely new upgraded servers when the ones they have would function just fine for a so-called "failing game".

Quote: Originally Posted by bobamech View Post
Lastly, you don't need training to deduce this. You will figure this out after you start working for corporations and listen to your SVP/CTOs give spiels about your last quarterly results from your projects. No one is going to tell you, "we're doing bad guys." The glass is always half full.
I was asking for specific examples since you were the one who made the claim in the first place. If you have nothing, then I guess that's all that needs to be said on the subject.

Secondly, as I've said before, the shareholders can sue the board of directors (who can then file indemnification lawsuits against the executive officers) for misleading investors (violating their fiduciary duties as agents of the shareholders).

And finally, as I said before, EA's actions DO NOT match those of a company attempting to downsize in order to cut their losses. The tone in the shareholders' reports don't indicate this, the accounts don't indicate this, the stock price behavior doesn't indicate this, the actions of the company itself don't indicate this. The only way you can reach this conclusion is by taking items out of context and/or making assumptions without citations or evidence.

bobamech's Avatar


bobamech
05.23.2012 , 09:39 PM | #148
Most of your responses shows why you're still in school in your major. If you believed that much in investor materials, maybe you should have also invested into Facebook.

I'm pretty much done. Keep at your major. You're doing an excellent job

JeramieCrowe's Avatar


JeramieCrowe
05.23.2012 , 09:53 PM | #149
Quote: Originally Posted by WLpride View Post
They should have made a mention of new hirees that they've taken on simultaneously... common sense.
Yes, they should have. It's on BioWare Austin's hire site, not like it's a secret they're rehiring.
Allix Crowe - Vanguard Trooper -/- Ethavan Crowe - Smuggler Gunslinger -/- Malrath Crowe - Powertech Bounty Hunter -/- Boslo - Jedi Knight Sentinel -/- Jiao-gen Pall - Jedi Knight Guardian -/- Landen Tanarr - Jedi Consular Sage -/- Vaelyth Kinti-kaar- Sith Warrior Juggernaut -/- Oteln'erose'thu - Imperial Agent Sniper -/- Zandur Tuum - Cathar Knight

Grevlin's Avatar


Grevlin
05.23.2012 , 10:05 PM | #150
Quote: Originally Posted by bobamech View Post
Most of your responses shows why you're still in school in your major. If you believed that much in investor materials, maybe you should have also invested into Facebook.

I'm pretty much done. Keep at your major. You're doing an excellent job
The go to plan for most people who have no more arguments or evidence to support their previous arguments- attack your opponents credentials and address what they say as little as possible.

We're not talking about investors' current preferences, or predictions of future stock value. We're talking about how profitable SWtOR is and how EA is treating it going forward. The fact that you would link the two just indicates how clueless you are on this subject.

Thank you for your words of support. It would certainly seem I'm doing better than you.