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Subs down 25%

First BioWare Post First BioWare Post

Rayla_Felana's Avatar


Rayla_Felana
05.07.2012 , 05:25 PM | #621
Quote: Originally Posted by Andryah View Post
Of course this thread will be catnip for the game haters, probably for the next week or two. But hey, some topic is ALWAYS catnip for the haters in these forums. I remember when it was "no grace period!" at launch, and "server queues, how dare they!!", etc. etc. yada, yada. As they always say, haters gonna hate.

Setting aside all the hyperbole (on either side of the discussion), The published data points in the earnings call are SOX compliant (or they go to prison for fraud), so they can be taken as fact (whether you like it or not, on either side of the discussion).

Now, MMOData.net (who correlates EA data to Xfire, and uses his long years of experience to gleen believable data projections) already nailed the retention track numbers in their last prediction (March 8, 2012) when he plotted SWTOR at ~ 1.4 million (as of first half of March), having peaked from early enthusiasm peak of 1.7 million. MOData also commented that he considers the game stabilized now having passed its launch frenzy peak (you can read his special comments on SWTOR here: http://mmodata.blogspot.com/ ).

All that said, this game is alive and well. It's one of only a handful of MMOs to occupy the 1M+ subs for MMOs [ http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-1.png ] It needs to pare down the number of launch servers (which is a pretty normal even for new MMOs that launch with pent up demand). And if ever there was an MMO with pent up demand, this would be the mother of them all. The developers have said since day one it is profitable at 500k subs. They have nearly three times that right now, and the game is still very young. Subs may go up, or they may go down over tie, but they are still very healthy, so the game is not dying, just some serves (mostly PvP) are dying. That will be fixe here in 6-8 weeks when they launch automated server transfer mechanics.

While it does not matter who is leaving or why, it's fun to talk about. So, we know from all the venom on the forum that hardcore anyone has pretty much left the game or will shortly. Good riddance, because this is not a hardcore centered game, it's a game for a wide variety of "non-extreme" tastes. As a person who used to hardcore PvP and hardcore PvE in earlier years, I find the content, approach, and pace/challenge of SWTOR to be refreshing, as I am sure many other do. Some will not and will leave in a huff and a growl, which is fine by me.

Only EA will every know the actual numbers. Everyone here, regardless of your view of the game and subscription discussions are playing the old blindfold game of pin the tail on the donkey. It's pointless, and it's divisive discussion, but I certainly do not expect it to go away until most of the malcontents walk the talk and actually leave.
Best post yet.

Murdertrane's Avatar


Murdertrane
05.07.2012 , 05:25 PM | #622
I think the bigger question from a player standpoint is how many of those "active subscriptions" are going to disappear the moment the free 30 days poofs.

I can't speak for anyone else, but without something tangible announced between now and then, I'm afraid I'll be one of them.

Rayla_Felana's Avatar


Rayla_Felana
05.07.2012 , 05:26 PM | #623
Quote: Originally Posted by ironix View Post
Yes, I went into the fine print just now... Seems, well... somewhat deceptive.
They repeatedly stated exactly that 'fine print' over and over all over the forums and in the facebook status', etc... how did you miss it?

GRINnBARRETT's Avatar


GRINnBARRETT
05.07.2012 , 05:26 PM | #624
Quote: Originally Posted by Andryah View Post
Actually, Rift peaked quickly at about 600K and has since fallen to around 250K.

Source: http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-2.png
This is actually more in line with what I'd read (700K). 2 mill?! No way.

XenonParsec's Avatar


XenonParsec
05.07.2012 , 05:26 PM | #625
Does this news really surprise anyone?

It probably surprises the fans who assured us 1.2 would increase subs. Those same people are here defending a loss of subs as progress, or like the news reports on the economy "everything isn't as bad as we thought, so therefore it's good."

No.

This kind of news needs to WAKE UP the people running things down there at BW. Stop messing around with these fluff features. Implement features that people willing to give you money will pay for. Pro tip: it isn't legacy.

Want to increase subs EA/BW? Server transfers, rated WZ, and class balance that is based on real metrics, not the threshold of whine posts being exceeded by some internally known number. Otherwise watch that churn in shock and awe next quarter.

Arkerus's Avatar


Arkerus
05.07.2012 , 05:26 PM | #626
As a big fan of this game I predicted it was fall to about 1.0 - 1.5 million. Looks like I was about right. I knew 1.7 was too high.

I have no reason to panic or think its going F2P. Its settling out and that's perfectly normal. The haters will barge in and try to spread doom. Haters gonna hate. Sad part is...what kind of sick person gets happy when they see a product decline?

People's livelyhood depends on this game. People's jobs are at stake. Even if a product isn't for me, I don't brag to people about how I don't play it. I've said that since day 1. If you brag about how much you hate this game in the forums for a game you PAID for...you have some serious justification issues. This isn't a war, its a game forum.



As for the game itself...they need to get the cross server PvP and PvE tools up. If they want to rebound those tools are necessary. I'm not going anywhere but I am on a populated server. My guilld has been rather successful so far so they should be fine. I don't see them leaving.

I would probably like to see some "launch servers" close. They should have never opened those in the first place. I had a bad feeling they were opening way too many.

On the positive, anything over 1 million is great in today's market. Rift barely had 250k. I would love to see some of these underdog games flourish, both Rift and TOR. I only say underdogs because WoW still has like 9 million subs. If WoW wasn't in the picture I have no idea what it would look like. GW2 will probably do well with a couple million after the shakeout.
Hooning in the rex : http://youtu.be/xtXUM6yPMCY

Slurmez's Avatar


Slurmez
05.07.2012 , 05:27 PM | #627
Haha, this must be a troll thread, after all Developer Daniel Erikson clearly stated that subscriber numbers hadnt dropped only a week ago.......

Andryah's Avatar


Andryah
05.07.2012 , 05:29 PM | #628
Quote: Originally Posted by Valkirus View Post
Sorry..I had to put your post into a quote before I could read it....my sunglasses are down in the garage I think. Anyway, did'nt the report from EA say something about TOR not being able to keep the casual gamers as much as they felt it would? Something along those lines.
If they follow a sensible business plan, they want to appeal to as wide a range of player base as possible, without doing a nutty and distorting it for a subset of players demands. The game is in fact very casual friendly. I happen to think it is even pretty hardcore friendly, but then again hardcores tend to be very whiny and demanding so they often leave in a huff, but then come back later and reapply their hardcore ways [I call them bipolar subscribers because they tend to sub/consumbe/unsub in cycles].

The steady playerbase will be joe average MMO player who enjoys it for it's fun and entertainment, maybe more so for the IP in this case. The bipolar subscribers are kind of the bane of all MMOs IMO, so they will come and go. I've watched them do it in several MMOs now, so it will happen here as well. They are easy to spot, as they are the vocal impatient demanding crowd you see in the MMOs forum.
When you find yourself surrounded by hostile Clowns... always go for the "Juggler" first.

JimG's Avatar


JimG
05.07.2012 , 05:29 PM | #629
Comparing the number of subs to the end of December is a little misleading anyway all of the subs at the end of December were in the free-trial phase of game. I would expect a significant number of people to not last a few months into paid gametime status. When you're talking about people that actually never entered paid game time, then it's misleading to say that their sub was "lost". From a monetary standpoint, those type of people never established that they were willing to pay for a sub in the first place. So I'd be curious to know how much of that 25% was made up of people who never actually ended up paying for a sub at all. If you want to look at trends to predict the overall health and future of the game, then you'd really need to compare how many people have actually paid for sub time and how many of those people still have an active sub right now.

Lord_Ravenhurst's Avatar


Lord_Ravenhurst
05.07.2012 , 05:29 PM | #630
Quote: Originally Posted by BCBull View Post
EA DOES NOT OWN FUNCOM OR THE SECRET WORLD


EA is shipping the boxes only. They own Bioware...

btw they are good at shipping boxes
ok, but I'm pretty sure they make a heap of money out of it and rumors are they are up to acquire Funcom, as they acquired Bio