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Reverse Engineering Broken - or am I crazy???

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering Broken - or am I crazy???

gentlepie's Avatar

05.03.2012 , 01:48 AM | #31
Just adding that I have had a similar experience. 20% seems far from what I've experienced REing a low level green augment, maybe 20 times.

netskink's Avatar

05.03.2012 , 08:21 AM | #32
Perhaps the RE chance is a base chance which is then scaled by level. Ie. all green to blues are 20%, all blues to purple are 10%. But factor in level of item and 10-19 items are reduced 0%, 20-29 reduced 1%, 30-39 reduced 2% etc.

So a blue to purple RE has a chance of 1%. This seems more in line with the results where people are doing way more than 1 out of 5.

Also, I think some of the items are simply no RE'able despite the tooltips.

HenniferJale's Avatar

05.03.2012 , 11:34 AM | #33
Quote: Originally Posted by MutatedSpleen View Post
After doing a little bit of fun internet research, I found the following link:
You don't need to use anything complex to calculate a 20% chance of success applied over a series of attempts.
A 20% chance of success means you have an 80% chance of failure, or .8 per attempt.
For every subsequent attempt, you multiply by another .8.

1 attempt = .8 failure, or 20% success
2 attempts = .64 failure rate = 36% success
3 attempts = .51 failure rate = 49% success
4 attempts = .41 failure rate = 59% success
5 attempte = .33 failure rate = 67% success

Over the course of five attempts, you have a 67% overall chance of discovering a new recipe.

lexiekaboom's Avatar

05.03.2012 , 01:50 PM | #34
The problem is the system and will never go away. The math provided so far is smack on, but it's missing an important point;

The poster is not unlucky. He isn't even have close to bad luck. Why? You have to look at the number of times this event happens. With 1.7 million players, I think it's safe to say that about a million attempts to "learn a schematic" happen every day. This means ONE IN A MILLION EVENTS happen ever day. The one in a million event for REing a 20% chance is about 70 in a row with nothing.

That's how probability works. The odds of winning a 6/49 lotto are extremely low, but that doesn't stop someone from winning almost every time. All that matters is enough people playing.

So EA and BW have set up a system for REing where ever single day 100s of people get screwed by falling on the 98% of standard distribution and needed to do 50+ REs to get a green into a blue.

Every single day.

And the design people think this is just fine and expect that guy to go "thems then breaks" and continue to enjoy playing that game. This is how detached from reality they are.