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Let's do a little math on server stats

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
Let's do a little math on server stats

brentonj's Avatar


brentonj
04.30.2012 , 11:02 AM | #81
Makes absolutely no sense that there's 126 US servers in Swtor, but Guild Wars is launching with 25.

No wonder every servery is a ghost town (mins The Fatman).
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"Busy adults who desire high level progression & expect high performance results"

GreySix's Avatar


GreySix
04.30.2012 , 11:04 AM | #82
Quote: Originally Posted by brentonj View Post
Makes absolutely no sense that there's 126 US servers in Swtor, but Guild Wars is launching with 25.

No wonder every servery is a ghost town (mins The Fatman).
Yeah, that seems unreasonably high.

Andryah's Avatar


Andryah
04.30.2012 , 11:04 AM | #83
Quote: Originally Posted by brentonj View Post
Makes absolutely no sense that there's 126 US servers in Swtor, but Guild Wars is launching with 25.

No wonder every servery is a ghost town (mins The Fatman).
A nonsequitur statement.

GW server farms have absolutely nothing to do with a discussion about SWTOR server averages, etc. etc.

And only about 15-20% of the servers are "ghost towns" on SWTOR, so you put a heap of hyperbole into your nonsequitur as well it seems.
When you find yourself surrounded by hostile Clowns... always go for the "Juggler" first.

Lord_Ravenhurst's Avatar


Lord_Ravenhurst
04.30.2012 , 11:20 AM | #84
Quote: Originally Posted by Andryah View Post
And only about 15-20% of the servers are "ghost towns" on SWTOR,.
suuuuure......

current status:

http://www.swtor.com/server-status


Worldwide Stats:

Full: 0
Heavy: 2 Servers
Standard: 42 Servers
Light: 175 Servers

Oh yeah, "Primetime" is the word Iīm waiting for.. letīs do this again every 2 hours and recount.

Frostvein's Avatar


Frostvein
04.30.2012 , 11:28 AM | #85
Quote: Originally Posted by GreySix View Post
Yeah, that seems unreasonably high.
This is the main problem. Not that there isn't anyone paying for and playing the game (there is) just that these people are spread too far apart across too many servers, and with no cross server anything you are restricted to your own server to get anything done.
Meanwhile, in Tera general chat -

"The sad thing is, arguing with fanbois on the forums was more entertaining than their 300 million dollar single player MMO from 2008"

arestesian's Avatar


arestesian
04.30.2012 , 12:04 PM | #86
Quote: Originally Posted by Lord_Ravenhurst View Post
I call BS on the rule of thumb. 900 players AVERAGE on each server during peaktimes? Keep on dreaming. You tell that the people on light servers.
I say it's both, far lower concurrent player numbers plus lower subscription numbers.
Unfortunately the next numbers they release will be flawed too, due to the free 30 days many active accounts won't even use or wanted. Active account is active account, right?
The next "real" numbers, if they don't give away more free sub extensions, should be released in late summer, and I wouldn't be surprised if they are down to one million or even lower, if there are no significantly interesting updates in the meantime.
It's not really a BS thing, it's another issue of the average vs the standard deviation. An average of 900 concurrent players across 3 servers (for simplicities sake) can be acheived in various ways.

3 servers at 900 players standard deviation 0
__
1 server at 900, 1 at 450, and 1 at 1350
Which gives a standard deviation of 300, so the corrected average would only include values from a 600 player minium to a 1200 player maximum.
So the 450 example and the 1350 example would be abnormally low, and abnormally high. So they would be excluded from your averaging and subsequent calculations.

Since you haven't put forward your breakout numbers for the servers, your scenario fails at the basic checks for statistical rigor.
In my opinion after going back over things, this appears to be a form of the 'the game is dieing' troll with some bad math thrown in to make it look good.
So shenanigans, shenanigans I say. I cast dispersions on the method, form, and substance of your argument.
'Why is it always the people who speak the loudest are the least qualified to voice an informed opinion?'
- Anon.
Remember Mr. Grenade is no longer your friend after you pull the pin.

Kthx's Avatar


Kthx
04.30.2012 , 12:05 PM | #87
Quote: Originally Posted by Lord_Ravenhurst View Post
Oh yeah, "Primetime" is the word Iīm waiting for.. letīs do this again every 2 hours and recount.
Right. And don't forget that each region has its own prime time, or you'll end up with yet another "garbage in, garbage out" calculation. Unless, of course, your goal is to demonstrate that off-peak, fewer players play than on-peak.

Kthx's Avatar


Kthx
04.30.2012 , 12:10 PM | #88
Quote: Originally Posted by arestesian View Post
Which gives a standard deviation of 300, so the corrected average would only include values from a 600 player minium to a 1200 player maximum. So the 450 example and the 1350 example would be abnormally low, and abnormally high. So they would be excluded from your averaging and subsequent calculations.
You don't throw out data just because it is outside one standard deviation of the average. If you have a normal distribution (i.e. your classical bell curve), then 32% of your observations will fall outside +/– one standard deviation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule

Lord_Ravenhurst's Avatar


Lord_Ravenhurst
04.30.2012 , 12:18 PM | #89
Quote: Originally Posted by arestesian View Post
It's not really a BS thing, it's another issue of the average vs the standard deviation. An average of 900 concurrent players across 3 servers (for simplicities sake) can be acheived in various ways.

3 servers at 900 players standard deviation 0
__
1 server at 900, 1 at 450, and 1 at 1350
Which gives a standard deviation of 300, so the corrected average would only include values from a 600 player minium to a 1200 player maximum.
So the 450 example and the 1350 example would be abnormally low, and abnormally high. So they would be excluded from your averaging and subsequent calculations.

Since you haven't put forward your breakout numbers for the servers, your scenario fails at the basic checks for statistical rigor.
In my opinion after going back over things, this appears to be a form of the 'the game is dieing' troll with some bad math thrown in to make it look good.
So shenanigans, shenanigans I say. I cast dispersions on the method, form, and substance of your argument.
Thatīs the meaning of "average", for every population number which is below average, there is most likely one which is above average, that is the principle. Take the population numbers together and divide them through server numbers. Then compare to real life situations, check server status, log in at "primetime" and see how many are actually there on light/standard/heavy servers.

So, why exactly are you replying then? What is your point instead of putting funny and popular forum compatible words like "shenanigans" and "troll" in your post?
Fix the calculation if you think itīs wrong, or play somewhere else. Prove where the 1.7M subscribers are and how long they are playing on average, is it really that hard?

arestesian's Avatar


arestesian
04.30.2012 , 12:23 PM | #90
Quote: Originally Posted by Kthx View Post
You don't throw out data just because it is outside one standard deviation of the average. If you have a normal distribution (i.e. your classical bell curve), then 32% of your observations will fall outside +/– one standard deviation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule
Rejecting the data outside the standard deviation band is a method to normalize the data, because the sample is non bell curve, and in the case of fatman or the other couple very high pop servers could show numbers an order of magnitude higher then other servers. It is an accepted method to exclude data like that but acknowledge it in the analysis.

Sorry about that understated it, for a sampling like server pops the sample isn't going to be normal for various reasons including local peak times. Any sample is going to have bad data, and the standard deviation gives you the acceptable observation band. The calculations realistically need to be done one of two ways, on only the items in the standard deviation band, and acknowledging the rejected data and why it was rejected. Or 2 sets one with the out of scope data and one without.

Rejecting the entries outside the standard deviation range for the server population calculation lets you clean up the data to show the trending better. This will allow you to compensate for the insane swing that the very large population servers like fatman would do to pull up the concurrent login numbers.
'Why is it always the people who speak the loudest are the least qualified to voice an informed opinion?'
- Anon.
Remember Mr. Grenade is no longer your friend after you pull the pin.