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Ok so It's offical. BM Bags are broken. My next question is.....

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > PvP
Ok so It's offical. BM Bags are broken. My next question is.....

solnar_xan's Avatar


solnar_xan
02.15.2012 , 10:41 AM | #51
Quote: Originally Posted by cosmov View Post
His problem is that he thinks that since this is computer game there is no RNG cuz (and i dont get where did he got that idea from,prob pulled it from the same place his posts are coming from)computers dont deal with random numbers.Nope,computer cant emulate dice being rolled(hello d&d)it just has some "miracolous" algoritm upon wich comms are being destributed.So he wants to know how ppl cheat on that uber algoritm to get their epixx.

Random numbers generated by a computer are in fact not random at all; given the same "seed" the identical random numbers can and will be generated over and over and over and over and over and over.

The seed is most likely server cpu ticks which reduces the predictability significantly. But, if BioWare uses something like CPU TICKS + Numeric Value of your name... you could just be screwed. This is a fact computers can not just pick a random number it is a pseudo random number.

Dalur's Avatar


Dalur
02.15.2012 , 10:41 AM | #52
Re-posted from the earlier linked thread.

While frustrating, this doesn't seem like a "broken" mechanic. If the drops are RNG, with each bag offering a 25% chance to drop a BM comm, it does not mean that you should be getting 1 comm every 4 bags. What most seem to be experiencing is a case of the Gambler's Fallacy. It's exact same reason why Vegas is so successful. People believe that based on previous experience they are MORE likely to be successful in future endeavors.

In reality, each time you open a bag, it does not take into account previous bags, each opening is totally independent event.

"The Gambler's fallacy... also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

This is all based on the assumption that the BM bags are operating on a RNG system

DestyOwn's Avatar


DestyOwn
02.15.2012 , 10:44 AM | #53
Quote: Originally Posted by Dalur View Post
Re-posted from the earlier linked thread.

While frustrating, this doesn't seem like a "broken" mechanic. If the drops are RNG, with each bag offering a 25% chance to drop a BM comm, it does not mean that you should be getting 1 comm every 4 bags. What most seem to be experiencing is a case of the Gambler's Fallacy. It's exact same reason why Vegas is so successful. People believe that based on previous experience they are MORE likely to be successful in future endeavors.

In reality, each time you open a bag, it does not take into account previous bags, each opening is totally independent event.

"The Gambler's fallacy... also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

This is all based on the assumption that the BM bags are operating on a RNG system
They just said it's broken and probably favors certain players.

How is that TRUE RNG
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drdarpa's Avatar


drdarpa
02.15.2012 , 10:45 AM | #54
Quote: Originally Posted by Foxcolt View Post
Holy crap it's been linked twice in this thread.....jeezus...half the people on here dont' even take the time to read before they post..
YEah I just saw that and read the link. My apologies for that, that was indeed my read fail. I skim rather than read because of the disgusting amount of crying that goes on in the forums with little teeny tiny gems here and there.

So my next question is whether or not anyone can link the post by the Bioware employee that a problem exists where some players have a mathematically better gear drop rate than others, or an indication that they agree that there is indeed an issue where drops favor some players over others.

I believe that's the OP's problem, it's difficult to really tell because the kid has poor communication skills and would rather rant and rage than explain his issue clearly.



Epicycle's Avatar


Epicycle
02.15.2012 , 10:45 AM | #55
Quote: Originally Posted by DestyOwn View Post
They just said it's broken and probably favors certain players.

How is that TRUE RNG
how is it FALSE RNG?

Foxcolt's Avatar


Foxcolt
02.15.2012 , 10:45 AM | #56
Quote: Originally Posted by DestyOwn View Post
Pure Luck doesnt exist in a computer.

it's all based on an algorithm, they managed to **** up a random number generator algorithm.

So im pretty sure they added some kind of MMR(Skill level/time played/against who...) type of values in their formulas. Maybe an equivalent for Valor... but Valor doesnt seem to do anything.

I personally went from Valor 60 to Valor 63 and got 2 Bm Commodations in Over 40bags.. lost count after 40

Which broke the real RNG behind the equation and favor certain people over other players...

lolololol Man..talking like you have a Phd in Comp science..how did you get so knowledgeable!

Really..you people need to realize that your personal experience does not equate to fact...nor does it even begin to contribute to any conclusions about the systems RNG broken or not.

Epicycle's Avatar


Epicycle
02.15.2012 , 10:48 AM | #57
please close this thread, i wanna go home

Foxcolt's Avatar


Foxcolt
02.15.2012 , 10:48 AM | #58
Quote: Originally Posted by drdarpa View Post
YEah I just saw that and read the link. My apologies for that, that was indeed my read fail. I skim rather than read because of the disgusting amount of crying that goes on in the forums with little teeny tiny gems here and there.

So my next question is whether or not anyone can link the post by the Bioware employee that a problem exists where some players have a mathematically better gear drop rate than others, or an indication that they agree that there is indeed an issue where drops favor some players over others.

I believe that's the OP's problem, it's difficult to really tell because the kid has poor communication skills and would rather rant and rage than explain his issue clearly.
Happens to the best of us....

There's no such link..BW just posted a generic "were looking into it" post..and now OP is QQ'ing rivers all over the forums...

Hoping after the flood of threads that will hit BW will come back with a better explanation.

cosmov's Avatar


cosmov
02.15.2012 , 10:50 AM | #59
Quote:
So how did the pros end up with Full BM gear asap.

I want to let you guys know i made a post that people were exploiting issues to increase their drop chances and gain loot faster.
He isnt looking for a fix,he thinks that some player employed some kind of shamanism to get bm gear asap.

No1 knows what exactly broken,yet he spouts his logical falacy like its a gospell

Khadroth's Avatar


Khadroth
02.15.2012 , 10:50 AM | #60
Quote: Originally Posted by Dalur View Post
Re-posted from the earlier linked thread.

While frustrating, this doesn't seem like a "broken" mechanic. If the drops are RNG, with each bag offering a 25% chance to drop a BM comm, it does not mean that you should be getting 1 comm every 4 bags. What most seem to be experiencing is a case of the Gambler's Fallacy. It's exact same reason why Vegas is so successful. People believe that based on previous experience they are MORE likely to be successful in future endeavors.

In reality, each time you open a bag, it does not take into account previous bags, each opening is totally independent event.

"The Gambler's fallacy... also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

This is all based on the assumption that the BM bags are operating on a RNG system
This is absolutely true btw. At a 25% rate eventually over the long run you could finally hit that point, but it could take an infinite number of tries to even out the streaks that it's not even funny. You could literally, continue to go 100 for 1000 while your friend enjoys the other side of the coin at 900 of 1000.
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