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Is HM drop really random?

Lyandor's Avatar


Lyandor
02.03.2012 , 05:02 PM | #1
We have been running HM systematically every evening, 3-4 a day and after 20+ or so, I only saw 2 jedi knight columni (and won one), while Troopers and smugglers are plenty. I did Kaon 4 times, with the 2 headgears drops each time: on 8 drops not a single Jedi knight. Statistically, there is a 10% chance that this happen. I can be unlucky, but on battle of ilum, maelstrom prison, false emperor, and ops, never saw a single jedi knight. A guild mate has done more than 12 times false emperor with zero drop for chest part.

To give an idea, I have 18 columni tokens, 64 tionese tokens and 200+ tionese gems but only ONE jedi Knight Columni gear (out of 2 drops...)

Maths can't lie, this really seems either bugged, badly coded, or made on purpose.

I read a few threads that also complains about that.

Can any dev comment please? This is really getting frustrating.

LordZode's Avatar


LordZode
02.03.2012 , 05:24 PM | #2
Quote: Originally Posted by Lyandor View Post

To give an idea, I have 18 columni tokens, 64 tionese tokens and 200+ tionese gems but only ONE jedi Knight Columni gear (out of 2 drops...)

Maths can't lie, this really seems either bugged, badly coded, or made on purpose.

I read a few threads that also complains about that.

Can any dev comment please? This is really getting frustrating.
Maths can't lie? Haha? I don't think you know what "random" means. Random means there will be distribution that can have long streaks of hits or misses. It doesnt matter if it is statistically "unlikely" - any given sequence of drops is unlikely, yet it still happens.

I've opened 37 bags Champion bags and gotten 4 items. I have friends who have opened 11 bags and gotten 6 items. Both scenarios are unlikely. One is disappointing, one is exciting. Welcome to RNG.

It is not bugged, badly coded, or 'on purpose'. No one is out to get you.

I am thinking this must be your first MMO if you are suprised that you can kill a boss 12 times without what you want dropping.

People farmed Ragnaros for years withouot getting the Eye of Sulfuras, or the left/right binding, or the main/offhand from Illidan... random=random. It does not mean it has to drop when you want it to, it does not mean after 5,000 runs you have "earned" or "deserve" it, nor is it more likely to drop because of the immense effort you have alreadyd put in.

Mossesman's Avatar


Mossesman
02.03.2012 , 05:41 PM | #3
Its random.

Ive done Kaon under siege 10+ times now. Ive seen 6 Jedi Knight helmets, 5 JC helmets, 3 Smuggler and 0 Trooper
Eathos - Commando | Norzrik - Guardian
Kezron - Scoundrel | Ashinelle - Shadow

Lyandor's Avatar


Lyandor
02.04.2012 , 09:58 AM | #4
We just killed the last 3 bosses of eternity vault: 5 troopers columni on 6 drops

Maybe we need to do it 1000 times to get square numbers, but I still would like to see the lines of code.

Kapadocious's Avatar


Kapadocious
02.04.2012 , 08:57 PM | #5
Im a bounty hunter and I've done at least 25 hardmode runs so far and I've only seen 1 token for BH...

Darth_Pernisc's Avatar


Darth_Pernisc
02.04.2012 , 09:07 PM | #6
Quote:
Maybe we need to do it 1000 times to get square numbers, but I still would like to see the lines of code.
If you don't understand RNG I find it highly unlikely you can interpret game code.

Daex's Avatar


Daex
02.04.2012 , 10:34 PM | #7
Quote: Originally Posted by Lyandor View Post
We have been running HM systematically every evening, 3-4 a day and after 20+ or so, I only saw 2 jedi knight columni (and won one), while Troopers and smugglers are plenty. I did Kaon 4 times, with the 2 headgears drops each time: on 8 drops not a single Jedi knight. Statistically, there is a 10% chance that this happen. I can be unlucky, but on battle of ilum, maelstrom prison, false emperor, and ops, never saw a single jedi knight. A guild mate has done more than 12 times false emperor with zero drop for chest part.

To give an idea, I have 18 columni tokens, 64 tionese tokens and 200+ tionese gems but only ONE jedi Knight Columni gear (out of 2 drops...)

Maths can't lie, this really seems either bugged, badly coded, or made on purpose.

I read a few threads that also complains about that.

Can any dev comment please? This is really getting frustrating.
Have to admit, hitting a 10% chance is not all that uncommon If you get hit in the head by piece of airplane dung then complain.

For example in a different game, I've been doing particular dungeon for roughly 3 months every day(skipped maybe 2 or 3) for a 10% drop. It's just how it is.

Felcat's Avatar


Felcat
02.05.2012 , 12:19 AM | #8
Quote: Originally Posted by Lyandor View Post
We just killed the last 3 bosses of eternity vault: 5 troopers columni on 6 drops

Maybe we need to do it 1000 times to get square numbers, but I still would like to see the lines of code.

Every loot roll is an independent chance, all of your past kills of the same boss have no effect on the odds of your next kill.

Weird steaks will pop up with thousands of people clearing FP's and Ops

Random loot is random, Statistics can be a *****