VGChartz tracks data by week, counting only US Physical Pre-Orders. If you start on this weekend http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/40762/USA/, the first where you can see data on SWTOR pre orders ending Aug-6, there are 203,000 physical US pre orders.

 

Now you can scroll right using the arrows by the week listing, and notice the change in pre orders. Assuming that digital+Euro orders all increase at the same rate, you can go ahead and speculate when you'll get in.

 

They ended around the 27th of July, im assuming the heaviest pre order period was just done, so around 100-150k were invited.

 

Listening to http://www.swtor.com/community/showpost.php?p=66561&postcount=6438you can see they plan to invite AT least the same amount of people tomorrow probably more. So I'd scroll to where pre orders = 300k, and if you ordered before that weekend date, you may have a chance for tomorrow, if not, hang tight.

 

I'm guessing they push to the 400k mark, mid september pre orders, you can see the first few weeks you scroll through are around the 20-30k increase per week, so they can invite a group spanning a longer time frame. Whereas if you ordered end of Oct-December, some weeks increase by 70k+, so smaller time frames will be let in.

 

Now please, do some math in your brain, speculate for yourself with some educated guesses, and let it give you peace enough to relax and not flame the devs while you are anxious. GL to all, I'm a pre order on 29th of Sept, so if they dont pass the 430k physical pre order mark tomorrow, im out of luck till the next day most likely.

 

EDIT: Think in PERCENTAGES people, the exact numbers don't matter, and just assume euro/digital orders increased at the same rate as physical preorders, because they probably did.

 

EXAMPLE:Guessing we hit the 150k mark on the site stats with the first day of early access. 150k is about 16% of the total number on that site. So say 16% of the actual number got let in on first day. Say they try 25% tomorrow, 25% is 235,000 of the 940,000 total number on that site. 235,000 second day + 150,000 first day = 385,000 mark, now find where that is for weekends by scrolling over.

 

My prediction, all those ordered up to 10th of September get in tomorrow off that data. Bet I'm close.

 

Some quick data:

Total Physical US Pre Orders: 939,358

Guestimated end date of invites for first day: July 27/28

Larger load granted tomorrow + following day

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/88591/usa-preorders-chart-10-december-2011-old-republic-nears-1-million/ Someone should write the data points and make a full sized chart and link it, <3

Edited December 14, 2011 by DeXtreme

Looks like an awful lot of people only getting 1-2 days then.

You're right, and I'm mostly posting lowball numbers so people can assume the worst and be happily surprised. They extended to 7 days so nobody would get 1 day early access i assume. All groups i bet will be in with minimum 2-3 days, so that leaves 940k (US Physical) devided among 4 ish days, maybe 250-300k a day invited.

 

But thats also assuming all of those people even put in the pre order code, lots of people dont even go to SWTOR.com so, who knows.

I think they aim to ramp up the invites so that all pre-orders get in by tomorrow (or at the very least day after tomorrow) so that everyone - even if you registered last week - will get 5 (or a minimum of 4) days of pre-launch access.

Looks like an awful lot of people only getting 1-2 days then.

 

many won't even get 1, but a few hours.

Thanks - I hope the post is useful to some in alleviating their impatience.

 

Ive already worked out that being australian and waiting for more information has resulted in getting maybe 1 day of play before 30th december.

 

Have also worked out that the unofficial australian servers (which are already full) will be empty upon release and filled up with Americans long before we can get our box's, enter our codes and return to those servers.

 

We only have ourselves to blame for assuming the wrong things - still sad to know the most depressing time of year for some just became a little darker.

 

Seasons Best to all

Yeah I'm pretty sure they added 2 extra days so they could avoid the rage from those getting one or less. Count on this all being done by day 4 early access.

The thing is, with threads like this like you say they contain information for only US Physical pre-orders.

 

If the information for how many got in yesterday only included that group, then yea you could work a rate out and figure when you get in, But you can't work it it out when you've guessed the number in, the period pre-order dates covered and probably missed around 60 - 75% of the total pre-orders.

 

That site is interesting yea, but theres not really enough info there to work out and even if there was, you'd be still assuming BW is going to let the same amount in every day for the remainder of EGA.

 

Either BW need to say how it works, which they've already said they don't know and is totally down to how the server responds, or you have to wait for your email. Until then I don't get why so many people are complaining, they're getting this time for free.

 

Although I do commend you for trying to diffuse some of the twisting going on around here, It would be great to start reading some actual game discussion instead of the usual law suit threats.

I had a better method for calculating, then I took an arrow in the knee.

The thing is, with threads like this like you say they contain information for only US Physical pre-orders.

 

If the information for how many got in yesterday only included that group, then yea you could work a rate out and figure when you get in, But you can't work it it out when you've guessed the number in, the period pre-order dates covered and probably missed around 60 - 75% of the total pre-orders.

 

That site is interesting yea, but theres not really enough info there to work out and even if there was, you'd be still assuming BW is going to let the same amount in every day for the remainder of EGA.

 

Either BW need to say how it works, which they've already said they don't know and is totally down to how the server responds, or you have to wait for your email. Until then I don't get why so many people are complaining, they're getting this time for free.

 

Although I do commend you for trying to diffuse some of the twisting going on around here, It would be great to start reading some actual game discussion instead of the usual law suit threats.

 

Agreed it's all speculation, but I'm guessing since release dates/pre order dates were announced simultaneously worldwide, the human nature of those nerds outside of the US is fairly close to those inside the US. And the physical US/digital US was probably the same ratio the whole time. So although the number is drastically low, I'd say you can still gauge pretty well by it IMO.

 

The main things affecting early access isnt so much the exact number, because we will ALL be in within 5 days I say, so X amount devided by 5 is gonna be at the same rate, just larger/smaller numbers. The thing affecting it is when you pre ordered and how active were the pre orders through the weeks before and who has gotten in already.

Edited December 14, 2011 by DeXtreme

I think the major unkown in this is the number of digital preorders on the first few days, because I suppose most people who preordered then, did so digitally or via amazon.

I had been wondering myself, along with most others, about what time I could expect EA.

 

The second thing to realize is scale. We invited more people to play Star Wars: The Old Republic today than many other MMO launches manage in their entire head-start process. As I mentioned earlier today, when we opened pre-orders we had a huge spike in numbers - far more than most MMOs capture at launch. That was the initial rush. After that, our pre-orders settled down.

 

What this means is that tomorrow, you'll effectively start to see the pre-order timeline expand. You'll see people who have pre-ordered later than July getting invites. The day after that, more people will be invited. We're actually planning to invite more tomorrow than today, and invite the same number again on Thursday - at which point we'll be into the original 'five days of Early Game Access'.

 

Helpful, but not cut in stone. Claims are that this first day was the "initial rush" and that they plan on increasing the invites for today.

I think the major unkown in this is the number of digital preorders on the first few days, because I suppose most people who preordered then, did so digitally or via amazon.

 

Hmm maybe, but I'd venture to say digital was roughly the same percentage of total pre orders each week. I doubt it fluctuated much more during the first week or two, but possibly during the last few due to the distress over shipping times.