From a Goldman Analyst Perspective on SWTOR

If they were current with a large number of the subscriber base, then yes, I'd blame it on the engine / coding.

As it stands though, most people are able to log in and play just fine.

Also, if TOR can't give you good customer service, what makes you think Arenanet will be any better?

This game launched well, but the problem is, its a crap game overall. WoW's launch was terrible but it was worth sticking around because it was a good game.

GW2

This is interesting.

NCSOFT failed with Aion, but did reasonably well with GW's (but took awhile to catch on.)

GW's actually grew (net/net) and simplified many mechanics as a wow clone in many aspects.

The game assumed its own identity however and many people played as an alternate to wow, and even more so since it was free to play (F2P)

There is definitely buzz about GW2, but I caution EQ2. In that, the same buzz and a dismal result.

Some of these factors are outlying ... and what I mean is this.

In the near future you have Diablo III launching. Most warcraft players will play both WOW and D3 or shift entirely to D3. There time is usually split in first person shooters or MOBA genre titles like League of Legends (up over 5 million players.)

MOBA has DOTA2 launching, and pulls from the GW/GW2 player base, as does Star Wars (GW2 will be a likely alternate,) and of course GW2 will pull from the warcraft database.

NA/EU share about 9.5 million MMO/MOBA players (that pay subs) - so the GW2 market share (since its F2P) will likely be around 1.5-2 million units bought in its 1st month. I expect that more will give GW2 a chance (or simply buy the game.) to try it or because they are bored of TOR/WOW/FF/Aion ect ....

GW2 launches with 8 interesting professions and delves back into the fantasy universe we are all used to. They did much with GW's, so I expect a more polished release and a great game overall.

Down the road, say Bioware fixes the bugs in the game ect, I expect the choice between the two to be preference / flavor ... sci-fi vs fantasy. (excluding the SW fan base to a degree.)

Keep in mine there is a darkhorse, in 38studios. Curt Schilling, the Boston Red Sox pitcher was one of the biggest fanboys and nerd of all time :-) Most of us talk about making an MMO, and the things we would do, he had both the funds and clout to do so, attracting some very talented engineers, animators and story tellers. They are taking time, releasing an RPG before the MMO, polishing it and learning from the successes and failures of other companies.

Down the road you have Blizzard (Project TITAN) and a few more Eastern MMOs trying to get back into the western market.

So, near term I would say do what your heart tell you to do. Try D3, and play GW2. OR stick with Srar wars and try GW2 when it launches. The choice is yours, but the game (GW2) will do very well and be a solid game.

Something that is bothering me, you are stating that SWTOR is losing players daily, now I understand how you could come up with such an analysis if data to suggest such things even existed, but at this current moment, how can such data accurately exist?

The games free month has not even expired, subscription to the game has not even happened yet, there is no accurate data to even determine the number of subscribers currently past the number of sales. So tell me, where do you get the information that players are quitting daily? Wouldn't the only logical suggestion of amount of players be the number of subscribers?

And if no accurate data on subscribers even exists yet, how is it that you, a "Goldman analyst" could make such an assumption about subscriber base when such data in it's current form is not indicative of actual subscriber base?

Answer? Either you are a terrible analyst, or a liar. Most likely both.

The choice is yours, but the game (GW2) will do very well and be a solid game.

... to try to prove they are some superior omnipotent authority that I should bow before.

Oh great another know-it-all OP. This is surely new and original.

Exactly, oh and look. I couldn't help notice "joined Dec 2011" and writing up a long winded "it will fail" thread. I didn't even read most of it just the highlights and I was right.

Oh well, 15 days until most are gone.