wow just wow

 

First off I have no stance on the game one way or the other, but man you people must be really bored

 

It is so funny how people see something like this, run with it and post as if it is some kind of a good assumption of anything.

 

If ø is greater than 1, start with 250 plus the % ø is greater than 1 x 1000 (where 1000 is the average of the top end of light = 500, and the top end of standard = 1500).

 

The above example: Does it not bother anyone at all that this is completely and totally made up?

 

Also to take into account that all server pop caps are not the same doing any calaculation based off of a wrong assumption and made up formaulas is just completely without purpose

 

You know anyone can make assumption and support a formula when you already know the end answer (ie population total that was reported)

 

And I can tell you in absolute fact when I did my server it is completely wrong

 

I really wish people would get lives and actually just play the game instead of spending so much time with absolute garbage like this

 

Nothing will be correct, or even close to accurate unless it is released officially, which it never will be.

 

I'm sure in another month some other "genius" will come out with something similar just like the past "geniuses" who tried to figure it out in the past months

The OP posted data and showed where she made assumptions and did not proclaim them as facts.

You on the other hand clearly state that 'take into account that all server pop caps are not the same' and have no evidence to back it up. I mean what dev in their right mind would use a consistent measure for 'Standard'

What pisses me off about this is that when I started playing on day 1...well actually day -5, I created my chars on a ''Light'' server, wich became ''full'' in about a week and 2 months later, due to BW stupidity my server was deserted by half the players.

Thanks again BW for not merging servers and/or allowing server transfers.

I do believe SWTOR just lost about 25% of their subs for this reason and the fact that they never implemented ''LFG'' matchmakers system.

Players are used to play games that offer these services and they want to be able to us them if need be. Lot of players will say:

-Whats the point in paying 15$ a month if I cant change server to play with my friends and cant find groups like I did in other game?

People are not patient anymore. They want everything NOW and BW was blind to it.

Im not saying SWTOR will fail, but BW had a very strong hand in his game and failed to play it well.

wow just wow

First off I have no stance on the game one way or the other, but man you people must be really bored

Not really. I just like using my brain to figure stuff out, namely, how much should I worry about server merges. That was my original thought process that led to this whole exercise. I have plenty of work to do at my real job. :-)

If ø is greater than 1, start with 250 plus the % ø is greater than 1 x 1000 (where 1000 is the average of the top end of light = 500, and the top end of standard = 1500).

 

The above example: Does it not bother anyone at all that this is completely and totally made up?

Actually, it's not completely and totally made up... but it does rely on a certain number of assumptions that are at least somewhat uncertain.

So it starts here... http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/05/population-numbers-behind-server-status.html

This guy actually did a lot of work. He wrote a program that told him whenever a server changed status from light -> standard -> heavy -> very heavy -> full and vice versa. For a long while (over 100 data points) he would go in and /who every level band on both sides on the server right after it changed status. That way he has some data that says, "when a server goes from light to standard, it usually has about 500 total active characters on it." Of course, running the /whos takes a while, and many people can log in and out during that 5-10 minute time that it takes to run the /whos. So that's why he graphed the data (first graph) and that there is a smear of data points.

So my reasoning was that if a server has a population of light, it's probably got something less than about 500 people on it. I don't have any idea what that number is... but I can estimate it as something between 0 and 500, so for the sake of argument, let's take the median of 250.

Also to take into account that all server pop caps are not the same doing any calaculation based off of a wrong assumption and made up formaulas is just completely without purpose

Hmm... the formulas aren't really "made up", they're a pretty standard use of weighted averages actually. If you're interested in more information about how they might be applied, Wikipedia has a decent starting point article on weighted means.

As for server caps, you're right, they may be different. That may be what "smears" the data out on the graph I mentioned above.

For what it's worth, what I've got is public. You're welcome to perform a different analysis.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodFJ2OWN5U0hwaVFBYWdqUUh1WmdZUFE#gid=2

You know anyone can make assumption and support a formula when you already know the end answer (ie population total that was reported)

Actually, I'm a scientist by trade, so I started with the data and ended up at the conclusion, not vice versa. My math says that I can find about 100,000 active characters on as a 24 hour average over the last two weeks. Someone else suggested that 10% active was a good number... I have absolutely no information as to whether that's a good estimate or not, and I believe (hope) that I was clear that it was completely uncertain.

And I can tell you in absolute fact when I did my server it is completely wrong

Interesting to know. I belive that this estimate is pretty unreliable on the very low phi servers (less than 0.98 for sure, less than about 1.2 probably). The thing is that I don't know what light means other than less than about 500. It could be 4 or 400, so I could be an order of magnitude off on the low end.

It seems within 30% of true of my server. What server are you on? What numbers do you get when you /who the server by level band (both factions) during peak and non-peak hours? How off are the numbers?

My analysis is all in a public google doc. I welcome you (and everyone) to take a look and propose a different set of assumptions or analysis method.

I really wish people would get lives and actually just play the game instead of spending so much time with absolute garbage like this

I'm sorry you find my analysis unhelpful. <shrug> I think it's probably within an order of magnitude of being right, and more like within probably 30% of being right. That's about the best I can do given the publicly available data and my limited free time.

Nothing will be correct, or even close to accurate unless it is released officially, which it never will be.

I completely agree that nothing will be completely correct until and unless Bioware releases demographic information. In the meantime, I think this information, while not completely accurate and with various uncertainties and assumptions, is useful for people who want to think about moving to different servers, or who want to prepare themselves for server merges, transfers, or closings. One of my favorite scientists once said "all models are wong, some are useful." I think this is at least useful. :-) If the analysis is not reliable enough for your particular needs, then my feelings won't be hurt if you don't use it.

I'm sure in another month some other "genius" will come out with something similar just like the past "geniuses" who tried to figure it out in the past months

I hope so. I'd like to have more sorts of independent analysis. Even if I don't agree with the methods or assumptions, just considering the problem is often enough to lead to additional insight.

Paige

I like how my server Anchorhead is no longer anywhere near the top 20, it was once full with queues, or at least almost always heavy, now its never above light.

Server transfers won't fix anything, do you think there going to let us transfer to servers like the fatman? no there most likely going to give servers like the fatman free transfers to our servers, who in there right mind would leave a good server in population to go to one of our ghost towns?

I really wish the technology was there to have 10-15,000 people on a server and then just cut the servers in half. That would make the game feel so much more alive.

EVE-Online nuff said

I really wish the technology was there to have 10-15,000 people on a server and then just cut the servers in half. That would make the game feel so much more alive.

That would be the best choice, but SWTOR cant support it. The engine has no balls. Remember Ilum? Between the planet itself and 50 players in one area, the engine would bog down, and occasionally just stop processing traffic.

This game is bottle necked by its own weak backbone. The engine cant handle much, so here we are, perpetually stuck in limited instances and low pop servers.

So, what has BW done? they essentially trashed Ilum, because its not fixable, and are now not talking about it anymore. What can they do? the games engine simply cant run it correctly.

I really wish the technology was there to have 10-15,000 people on a server and then just cut the servers in half. That would make the game feel so much more alive.

I can't handle denova with 100 people in there, I can't imagine 1000.... And I have a beastly machine, so I should correctly state BIOWARE can't handle denova with 100 people in there, much less 1000.

I can't handle denova with 100 people in there, I can't imagine 1000.... And I have a beastly machine, so I should correctly state BIOWARE can't handle denova with 100 people in there, much less 1000.

What you expect of Heroengine ?

To the OP, thanks very much for this statistical treasure trove. And I really appreciate the clarity on where the numbers have come from, the assumptions made, etc.

And given the stats on my server (which strongly verified my general experience - I don't think it's ever been at Standard that I can recall), I think my guild is going to have to figure on packing our bags and heading for new places come early summer, probably one of those top 30 servers you have listed. At least we have the time to get organized and all our people heading in the same direction.

ok everyone, on the count of three we all log into our home servers and tell everyone to roll on Fatman.

haha we'll see just how many people can REALLY fit on a server.

3

2

1

reroll!

ok everyone, on the count of three we all log into our home servers and tell everyone to roll on Fatman.

 

haha we'll see just how many people can REALLY fit on a server.

 

3

 

 

2

 

 

1

 

 

reroll!

Eff Fatman. Eff PVP servers. Reroll on Gauntlet of Kressh. Let's take a server from light to heavy.

(challenge accepted . jpg)

To the OP, thanks very much for this statistical treasure trove. And I really appreciate the clarity on where the numbers have come from, the assumptions made, etc.

 

And given the stats on my server (which strongly verified my general experience - I don't think it's ever been at Standard that I can recall), I think my guild is going to have to figure on packing our bags and heading for new places come early summer, probably one of those top 30 servers you have listed. At least we have the time to get organized and all our people heading in the same direction.

Thank you! If you're in to stats, I'd welcome another viewpoint on the analysis.

I'm on Sanctum of the Exalted (RP PvE EST). Our guild leaders are rightfully concerned about what server transfers will mean to us. Change is always painful, so it's best to try to at least think through it as much as you can ahead of time.

Piage

Paige

At launch I choose a server and started getting long queue times to log in....so I rerolled on another.....man was I stupid. Things were fine for the first few months. I even had a short queue one night. Now I wait 40+ minutes for a WZ

Ah well, there are other fish in the sea.

According to that, my server is almost literally middle of the pack. And it sucks HARD at this point. Group flashpoints are impossible sub 50 without waiting HOURS to get one going. PvP queue times are not that bad (30 min maybe), but seeing as all the PvP guilds rerolled rep, every match is a slaughter fest of super geared premades against under to moderate geared pubs.

Honestly they SHOULD literally just remove half of the servers and consolidate. But they are in complete denial about the state of the player population. So it wont happen.

Rerolling fatman. I want to play a Massively Multiplayer game, not a Minimally Multiplayer game. And my server as flat in the middle average, but the playerbase is already well into the "Minimally Multiplayer" stage. So what does that say about the other half of the servers below us?

Pfft. I was on my WoW server ( Stormrage ) this morning...non prime time and for a interest of how many may be on...I did a /who for classes in SW. 373 players...and that is just SW. Got into a LFR run and was done a hour later...as dps... These type threads do nothing to prove anything but the fact a handful of servers are healthy. Why should I care, when I am not transfering unless BioWare shuts my server down? I donot care that Fatman is top on server pop status.

It does not address the more serous issue which is a lack of tools to do end game content. The same server LFG tool coming in 1.3 is not going to work well at all on low pop servers. Sure go ahead and merge servers....have some que times logging on and competition for mobs, nods and having to rename your chars after they do those.

The Ebon Hawk FTW!

 

We are "healthy" I think. Not too heavy, and not light by any means.

 

Just right.™

damn straight..lol

My server is dead and it sucks, thats my thoughts.

^^same, only 5 ppl on fleet at 9pm

There's a very simple way to know the real data especially since we have a few dozens of players posting here, so interested in knowing the truth

1. Get a list of all players interested in and willing to do something about it
   
2. Prepare a list of pre-made /who to distribute among the players. Each request will be done by 2 (or better 3) different players to prevent false numbers.
   
3. Have all these players create a characters on a selection of 5 servers
   
4. One person and person only will prepare the distribution of the /who among the players
   
5. Have all the players log in game
   
6. At a specific time send the go to hit the /who request (Can be done through a guild chat)
   
7. Wait a few minutes and repeat.
   
8. Report the numbers
   
9. Crunch the data.
   
10. Repeat on how many servers you want
    

=> Facts.

Knowing the MMO population pretty sure it can be done it just need a bit of coordination.

^^same, only 5 ppl on fleet at 9pm

With no cross server LFG coming anytime soon apparently, looks like rerolling is the only option. I'm sure as hell not going to pay to move to a living server, and I highly doubt they'll free transfer to anywhere that won't be dead as a doornail in no time.

Went through that crap in WoW. "Oh look free transfer off!" ~gets to realm~ *Realm dead or dying* "***? I wanna go back!" "Fine pay us to transfer you back"..."F it! Just abandon those 80s (max at the time)".

Yeah I've been down this stupid road before, and it ain't gotten any prettier.

Standard + servers right now

Ajunta Pall Standard RP-PvP

Canderous Ordo Standard PvE

Corellian Run Standard PvE

Drooga's Pleasure Barge Standard PvE

Elysium Standard PvE

Grand Master Zym Standard PvE

Jedi Covenant Heavy PvE

Jung Ma Standard RP-PvP

Juyo Standard PvE

Kaas City Standard PvE

Krayt Dragon Standard PvE

DragonnLord Adraas Standard RP-PvE

Lord Ieldis Standard RP-PvE

Mind Trick Standard PvE

Rubat Crystal Standard RP-PvE

Sanctum of the Exalted Standard RP-PvE

Shadow Hand Standard PvE

Sith Meditation Sphere Standard PvE

Sith Wyrm Standard PvE

The Ebon Hawk Standard RP-PvE

The Fatman Very Heavy PvP

The Harbinger Standard PvE

The Shadowlands Standard PvE

The Swiftsure Standard PvP

That's 24 servers that are standard or higher. The majority of these are standard pop, and none of those standard servers will condone being forced to transfer, and possibly lose thier names.

All primetime standard pop servers should be destination servers.

Yeah im on Juyo and theres 25 people on the fleet...my poor unsubbed WH Sage ;[

Just because theere isn't a bunch on fleet, doesn't mean they're not elsewhere doing things other than standing around on fleet. I rarely go to fleet, maybe they do the same.

They're standard pop right now, so they have to have a lot people online.

Fleet is not any good indicator of population. If anything, it's a poor estimate of population because the levelling process doesn't have too many quests on the fleet. You'd be better off in Coruscant or Dromund Kaas.

The *best* way is for the fine folks at http://www.torstatus.net to do the work for you OR to census both sides of your server by level band using /who.

For what it's worth, here are today's top 20 US servers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodFJ2OWN5U0hwaVFBYWdqUUh1WmdZUFE#gid=15

The Fatman (PvP US East) Population ≈ 2102.5

Jedi Covenant (PvE US East) Population ≈ 1180

The Harbinger (PvE US West) Population ≈ 940

The Swiftsure (PvP US West) Population ≈ 870

Drooga's Pleasure Barge (PvE US West) Population ≈ 840

Canderous Ordo (PvE US East) Population ≈ 800

Ajunta Pall (RP PvP US West) Population ≈ 690

The Ebon Hawk (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 680

Lord Adraas (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 680

Jung Ma (RP PvP US East) Population ≈ 670

Mind Trick (PvE US East) Population ≈ 560

The Shadowlands (PvE US East) Population ≈ 550

Zakkeg Beast (PvE US West) Population ≈ 550

Shadow Hand (PvE US East) Population ≈ 540

Darth Sion (PvE US West) Population ≈ 500

Krayt Dragon (PvE US East) Population ≈ 500

Sanctum of the Exalted (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 500

Lord Ieldis (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 500

Begeren Colony (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 500

Vrook Lamar (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 500