I RE 25 Blue Reflex Augment 9's in a row. I believe this schematic is bugged.

A 20% chance to learn a new schematic means each individual mod you RE has a 20% chance. It doesn't mean that RE'ing 5 of them will definately give you the schematic. In other words, each time you RE one, you have an 80% chance to fail. Each. Time.

You could RE 10000 of them & still never get it, just depends on the RNG.

A 20% chance to learn a new schematic means each individual mod you RE has a 20% chance. It doesn't mean that RE'ing 5 of them will definately give you the schematic. In other words, each time you RE one, you have an 80% chance to fail. Each. Time.

 

You could RE 10000 of them & still never get it, just depends on the RNG.

I understand the statistics concept but I agree with the first post..I broke over 30 of the Reflex augments to get the first upgrade. The odds of NOT getting the schematic after 30 tries at 1:5 each go is phenominally low!! like...winning the lottery low...yes it is possible I was just really really unlucky (no guarantee that any will be "the winner") but I'm pretty sure the 20% quoted is rubbish...5% maybe 8% would fit the practical results

I understand the statistics concept but I agree with the first post..I broke over 30 of the Reflex augments to get the first upgrade. The odds of NOT getting the schematic after 30 tries at 1:5 each go is phenominally low!! like...winning the lottery low...yes it is possible I was just really really unlucky (no guarantee that any will be "the winner") but I'm pretty sure the 20% quoted is rubbish...5% maybe 8% would fit the practical results

LOL, Incoming

Prepare to be slimed.

Acutually, a number of people in this section keep spreadsheets of their RE attempts and can show that RE is not bugged, but conforms to the delcared percentages in the loooooooooooooong run.

The debate devolved into whether the system which has the possibility of loooooooooooong loooooooooooooong fail runs that seem to occur all to often, actually sucks. Opinion is divided on that.

I understand the statistics concept but I agree with the first post..I broke over 30 of the Reflex augments to get the first upgrade. The odds of NOT getting the schematic after 30 tries at 1:5 each go is phenominally low!! like...winning the lottery low...yes it is possible I was just really really unlucky (no guarantee that any will be "the winner") but I'm pretty sure the 20% quoted is rubbish...5% maybe 8% would fit the practical results

You do realize that even with very low odds of winning, some people actually *do* win the lottery, don't you?

I understand the statistics concept but I agree with the first post..I broke over 30 of the Reflex augments to get the first upgrade. The odds of NOT getting the schematic after 30 tries at 1:5 each go is phenominally low!! like...winning the lottery low...yes it is possible I was just really really unlucky (no guarantee that any will be "the winner") but I'm pretty sure the 20% quoted is rubbish...5% maybe 8% would fit the practical results

Can we say extreme hyperbole? Or you do not know statistics as well as you claim. The odds of 30 straight failures (that means succeeding on the 31st attempt) is 0.124% or 1.24 in 1000. Winning the lottery: 1 in 157 million give or take. To hit that mark you would need to fail 85 times in a row.

And in anticipation of a thread or response like this (and as proof of Asbalana's claim ), I have been tracking my RE rates for the past few weeks.

405 total items crafted

282 of those REed for schematics

65 schematics achieved

RE success rate 23.05%

Only 1 out of 65 schematics achieved took more than 20 attempts.

Only 3 others took 10 attempts or more

Did the 1 that took 23 attempts suck? Sure did! But the myriad of quick successes VASTLY outweighed that one bad experience.

In a previous experiment of this kind (in March 2014), I went 41 attempts (across three different items) before succeeding. But in that same data set, I got two schematics out of my first three REs. I remember both events equally, because they both stand out. And the overall rate of success was dead on.

EVERY testing cycle I have ever done on this subject has shown that long fail streaks are inevitable but their occurrences are rare in the grand scheme. Now it is a matter of convincing everyone else of this. Obviously numbers do not work, but that's all I got.

Just for laughs I went and gave this schematic a try...

Reverse Engineer Green to Blue: Two attempts to learn the blue schematic

Reverse engineer Blue to Purple: Seven attempts to learn the purple schematic