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Probabilities mean nothing - RE still needs fix


Overmind

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If I do get a schematic on the first roll, the other 4 become superfluous. So even though my RE rate was 100%, I made 5 to get it, so still just 20%.

It seems like what you've done here is create your own little rule that makes it impossible to ever get anything better than 20% in a particular trial. Given that, naturally your perceived percentage will be lower -- because you've artificially capped it.

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It seems like what you've done here is create your own little rule that makes it impossible to ever get anything better than 20% in a particular trial. Given that, naturally your perceived percentage will be lower -- because you've artificially capped it.

 

Agreed. Those extra items are only superfluous if you want them to be. maybe those other four can be:

 

  • sold on the GTN (any credits returned is better than none at all)
  • used to generate augmentation slot kit components. (depends on the item of course)
  • socked away to be used by an alt at some point.

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I've never done an exhaustive study of 1000s of REs but I have done small samples of 54, 23, 90, etc and it has always been lower than 20%. This is further aggravated by the fact that typically I task a companion with making 5 of something in hopes of getting 1 RE. If I do get a schematic on the first roll, the other 4 become superfluous. So even though my RE rate was 100%, I made 5 to get it, so still just 20%.

 

I wish there was increasing chance for success scaled to number of attempts.

I explained some things at the beginning of the thread.

 

Overmind, you are not getting it. I am including a crafting skill specific requirement. If you remember for example the Rakata belts and bracers that AM and SW could craft had AM and SW requirements. BUT those same items dropped in raids as well. So:

 

1. craft belt and bracers for the boost to get into raids

2. get the tokens from raids for belt and bracers

3. drop AM/SW because you no longer need the crafted belt and bracers

4. level up another crafting skill for its BiS crafted item.

That is illogical since drops can as well be what you need and not have.

Edited by Overmind
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............I hate to bring this part of the debate back in, but if one NEVER raids then why does one need BiS gear in the first place? second or even third best is MORE than enough.

 

I hate to bring this up, but raiders never hate to bring up that point.

I hate to bring this up, but what has that point to do with the topic.

I hate to bring this up, but the point is pure garbage and has been forever debated hotly elsewhere with each side of the issue clinging to their points.

I hate to bring this up, but who are you to tell me what is more than enough for me.

I hate to bring this up, but why do raiders in BIS gear do dailies which they overpower by tons and often ravage an area at the expwnse of non raiders.

Edited by asbalana
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I hate to bring this up, but raiders never hate to bring up that point.

I hate to bring this up, but what has that point to do with the topic.

I hate to bring this up, but the point is pure garbage and has been forever debated hotly elsewhere with each side of the issue clinging to their points.

I hate to bring this up, but who are you to tell me what is more than enough for me.

I hate to bring this up, but why do raiders in BIS gear do dailies which they overpower by tons and often ravage an area at the expwnse of non raiders.

 

Guess I struck a nerve :p

 

I am only going to respond to the last two points in reverse order.

 

raiders do dailies to pay for repair bills (at least that's what all my raiding friends do). As I have said many times, most players do not engage in crafting for profit. Dailies are the primary source of endgame income. Another reason is reputation; the only way to get rep for gear sets or other rep only items is by doing dailies. Personally, I do not do dailies for credits, and I barely do them for rep. IMO dailies are a waste of my time.

 

On to the previous statement, as you say in your last statement, raiders overpower by tons and often ravage an area. So is it that you want to do the same?

 

Personally, I want the best gear available, because it is a necessary piece of the operations progression process. Without full 186, SM ops are VERY hard. Without full 192 (with set bonuses), HM ops are impossible. Without getting 198 as I progress through HM ops, the next boss is much harder.

Edited by psandak
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Yes, you actually need that gear to progress.

Dailies are a complete waste of time.

I got my rep to max on Rihsi, Oricon and Y4 just by making one run of them with each character and still got tons of tokens left. Dailies are useless because they do not drop higher comms. Basics are instantly useless the moment you hit 60 and gear up for the first time.

Not being able to craft anything better at that point is a big problem.

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Yes, you actually need that gear to progress.

Dailies are a complete waste of time.

I got my rep to max on Rihsi, Oricon and Y4 just by making one run of them with each character and still got tons of tokens left. Dailies are useless because they do not drop higher comms. Basics are instantly useless the moment you hit 60 and gear up for the first time.

Not being able to craft anything better at that point is a big problem.

 

True.

 

The dailies do have marginal value. My SI was my first 60 and there is no reason to play him any longer (same for gunslinger & trooper, etc.) Running them though daiies at least lets me play them and stay "up" on my rotations and keep the feel from atrophying.

 

I have thousands of the commendations spread across my 60s and they do come in handy while leveling a new character. It is easier sometimes to buy the blues then take the time to craft them.

 

You are right about the rep. I am maxed out and became so on the first pass through. Not sure how raiders got through the content without maxing out the rep in the first pass, but if they need it dailies will do.

 

As far as needing equipment for raiding, that is true. Raids are designed that way although I see no reason why they have to be so except for one. That is to build a treadmill where maxed out characters can run their hearts out. Much like your daily observation, few would do a raid more than once or twice without an incentive. That is raid to get gear so that you can raid more to get more gear so that you can raid more.

 

I agree that not being able to craft anything better than second or third best (good enough for me) is a real problem. But I guess the devs feel (like many) that few will craft and providing a crafting path to greatness will discourage the raiders since they would not have to raid to get gear to raid.

Edited by asbalana
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Yes, you actually need that gear to progress.

Dailies are a complete waste of time.

I got my rep to max on Rihsi, Oricon and Y4 just by making one run of them with each character and still got tons of tokens left. Dailies are useless because they do not drop higher comms. Basics are instantly useless the moment you hit 60 and gear up for the first time.

Not being able to craft anything better at that point is a big problem.

 

That's right, all end game solo and small group content is there to get players sufficiently geared to start running large group content. That is the way MMO progression works.

 

Now I know the majority of players of MMOs (as shown in various reports on the internet) do not engage in large group content (AKA raiding). So the question becomes: should MMO games provide gear progression beyond "entry level end game" to those who have no intention of engaging in large group endgame content? The unintended consequence of doing so would be that the percentage of players who do engage in end game content would diminish even further because let's face it, a significant draw to end game content is better gear; no matter how much protesting to the contrary it does play a part.

 

So, next question: is there a compromise solution? BW's compromise is that the second best stuff (please don't include the 204 MH that drops off HM Monolith, that's is ONE piece among 14) can be crafted but one has to engage in large group end game content or run endgame small group content (AKA HMFPs) enough to get extra gear to RE to be able to get those schematics; although the HMFP route have fewer optimized and none are set bonus. To some (and please do not overestimate your opinion as dominant), this is not good enough.

 

OK, so now the ball is in your court. BW has proposed and implemented its compromise solution. What is your counter proposal. REMEMBER one definition of compromise is a deal where neither side walks away with everything they want. So your compromise cannot be "I would allow all gear at all levels to be craftable."

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This is slightly askew from the current argument, which is itself nowhere near the original point of the thread, so I wonlt apologize, but.....

 

The biggest problem, as I see it, is that the game has completely changed direction so that the expectations that were set up in leveling 1-50 are no longer valid. Crafting was an important part of 1-50. You crafted for yourself, for your buddies, or to sell. I am not a "Do Dailies" kind of player, so for me, crafting was THE money-maker. It made my toons "comfortable enough" so that credits was not a problem in-game. Stories was another integral part of 1-50. Eight of them, enough different to be engaging, and engaging enough to put up with grinding through capturing King Ulgo yet again in every single progression. And companions, interesting, all with their own stories, enough that you wanted to get their affection to 10,000 just to see what their compete stories were.

 

But with 50-55 a lot of that stuff went away, though crafting was still there. And from 55-60 we got a tiny bit of story back, and maybe a tiny bit of companions, but crafting suddenly becomes a lesser issue. What is emphasized is forced flashpoints, forced group content, and the ever-present, and ever-repetitive dailies, over and over again. Couple this with an emphasis on the very best gear, some of which you cannot craft at all, or face hoops and difficulties never encountered in 1-50.

 

For myself, I do not enjoy group content or PvP. I just want to progress by myself without undue interference. Now at this point people jump in to gleefully point out to me what "MMORPG" means and suggest if I don't like the "MMO" part, perhaps I should not play the game. These people believe themselves to be insightful. They're not. In fact, they are the opposite. "MMO" just means there are a lot of players running around, not that I have to group with them. To me, they are a distraction. And given the group dynamics shown in game and in these forums, it's actually distasteful.

 

Now BW says they are moving back toward story, but it looks like they are moving back toward traditional MMO fare, dungeons and dragons, and group content, while de-emphasizing the more personal aspects, including crafting, companions, and story. Even if you decide to disagree with my analysis, you must surely agree that the game emphasis from 50-60 is vastly different than 1-50. It is not the same game at all.

 

Surely I am not the only one who sees it this way, and I have to believe BW sees it, too, or they would not be making faint gestures toward story at all. But they are obviously on a different path attempting to inject excitement into the game sufficient to retain players and add new ones. I'm getting close to 50-55 for all 8 stories, and after that, I really donl't see the point.

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So I've kinda followed this topic on and off ... is it me or is this one of the most off topic topics around?

 

I think in this one page alone it's changed topic 3 times.

 

I was going to address the point around gearing and whether or not the top tier gear should be RE'able but I think psandak has summed it up pretty well and no one seems capable of viably countering his point so I guess that "topic" within a topic is moot.

 

As to the original topic, RE works fine as it is but I might have said that already also. :)

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Getting this thread back to the original topic...

 

I have started REing again. I am working through all the Biochem grade 36 implant schematics that I did not bother getting before now (because they are suboptimal; yes I am playing the completionist :))

 

So far I have crafted six distinct prototype/blue implants. I have crafted a total of 105 of them. I have REed 66 of them to get the 14 possible schematics.

 

two facts:

  • I do not care about the leftovers. I am REing them anyway for the augmentation slot kit components.
  • I do not care about which schematic I get when because ALL of them are not worth getting in the first place.

 

I am engaged in this project because I am already crafting and REing implants for augmentation slot kit components and all this project costs me is blue materials that I usually vendor anyway. The point of this project is to establish from an unbiased standpoint the RE RNG is functioning in a manner that overall success rate matches the probabilities.

 

I will be continuing this data accumulation until I have every grade 36 implant schematic (I have 24 schematics to go).

 

Here are the specific numbers so far:

 

items crafted (IC): 20, items REed (IRE): 10, Schematics achieved (SA): 3, success rate (SR): 30.00%

IC: 15, IRE:11, SA: 2, SR: 18.18%

IC: 10, IRE: 5, SA: 2, SR: 40.00%

IC: 25, IRE: 25, SA: 2, SR: 8.00%

IC: 15, IRE: 8, SA: 2, SR: 25.00%

IC: 20, IRE: 7, SA: 3, SR: 42.86%

 

Overall:

IC: 105, IRE: 66, SA: 14, SR: 21.21%

 

I started this process on Friday night and continued through the weekend. My bad streak crossed from Saturday into Sunday.

Edited by psandak
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I have now crafted 12 distinct items, 200 total, REed 128 of them, to get 29 possible schematics (and I am only about half way done; I miscounted the number of schematics available)

 

Going with what I REed that is 22.66% RE success rate (29/128=.2266)

 

For those who say we should be looking at the number of items crafted vs success...Going with what I crafted that is a 14.5% RE success rate (29/200=.145).

 

If we split the difference, averaging the two rates, that's 18.58%.

 

Interesting quirk in the data...If I take the distinct items' RE rates and average them, I get 31.63% rate of success. Even if I throw out the high (100%) and low (8%), the average is still 27.16%

Edited by psandak
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  • 2 months later...

I feel the crafting system is actually very poorly done, so many things they can streamline and better, I could get eg. overkill, critical but I am actually after the redoubt of an item. Currently I am trying to get this item to proc but no luck after more than 23 items made and REd, still no joy, I swear the crafting system regards the ones I have of this item i.e. the overkill or cirtical as successful RE each time meaning that it doesnt remove say overkill or crit from the list of procs I could have. so I could in actual fact have procced 5x already in the 23 attempts but never knew it since I already had those schems learned...from the lack of effort I have seen from EA to fix old issue in this game I would not be surprised if this is the case.

 

When will they revamp this crafting system, I mean I should have higher odds of proccing an item the better I am at the skill, it just stays the same and all the level determines really is your ability to craft the item in the first place, when REd should also benefit from your ability to craft it in the first place, instead of 20% (which isnt 20% im sure) to 30% or much more depending on your skill.

 

e.g. if you at lvl 400 crafting and your max for that range is 450, then at 450 you should have a higher chance to REd anything you could make from 400->450.

 

EDIT: Just FYI the item I am trying to get a blue of and I have had no variants yet of this particular item, so I am facing very bad odds if I have have procced so many greens and not one blue yet, forget the correct blue, farming takes ages, RE'd is just completely screwed, I get working hard for something but this is rediculous already, give me a damn achievement and call it "the stupidly tenacious"

 

I can think of a **** ton more things EA should do to make the crafting better. Many cosmetic but we love little details, I would for one love to have a wookiee strap on so goggles and blowtorch to farm a dead droid...those things are imo what makes the player feel there has been effort made...not just some Star Trek scanner doing all the work each time (but this is a cosmetic gripe)

 

EXTRA: Give us rare schems that are dropped in world or more, from mobs, from raids (I hate to say this but yes more like WoW use to be) and no I am not interested in playing WoW again but Blizzard did do some good things, don't reinvent the wheel use good mechanism and apply them, people like that kind of thing

Edited by NomadWan
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I feel the crafting system is actually very poorly done, so many things they can streamline and better, I could get eg. overkill, critical but I am actually after the redoubt of an item. Currently I am trying to get this item to proc but no luck after more than 23 items made and REd, still no joy, I swear the crafting system regards the ones I have of this item i.e. the overkill or cirtical as successful RE each time meaning that it doesnt remove say overkill or crit from the list of procs I could have. so I could in actual fact have procced 5x already in the 23 attempts but never knew it since I already had those schems learned...from the lack of effort I have seen from EA to fix old issue in this game I would not be surprised if this is the case.

 

The fact is that 23 consecutive failures is not statistically impossible; the chance while small, is not beyond the realm of probability...0.6%; 6 in 1000 trials will encounter a streak of 23 failures.

 

Question: how many times did you get a schematic in one or two attempts when by probability they should have procced on the fifth? 20% is 1 in 5 after all. You are focusing on one bad streak. I too have had my share of bad streaks, and you know what...**** happens. The point is you need to remember the good and the bad equally. For example: while leveling armstech, on my first two items I crafted I got successful REs in three tries (that's first try success on one item and second try success on the other), but later on I had a streak of 42 failures across three items. I remember both events equally vividly.

 

Point of fact: the system did at one point consider schematics you already had as "success". Back then you would get a message across the screen saying "you already have that schematic." The message does not happen anymore, so we can infer that aspect of the system was "corrected." (from a pessimistic standpoint one can say that all they did was hide the message, but I am an optimist ;))

 

When will they revamp this crafting system, I mean I should have higher odds of proccing an item the better I am at the skill, it just stays the same and all the level determines really is your ability to craft the item in the first place, when REd should also benefit from your ability to craft it in the first place, instead of 20% (which isnt 20% im sure) to 30% or much more depending on your skill.

 

Reverse Engineering is not about crafting, it is about realizing the potential for improvement. Edison went through a thousand iterations of the light bulb before hitting on a workable design. No matter how skilled a craftsman is, it takes time and effort to improve upon a given design. RE is the game mechanic that represents that time and effort. With any specific item, for some inspiration strikes fast, for others it takes longer, but over the course of many items, the rate of "inspiration" works out to be the same for all

 

EXTRA: Give us rare schems that are dropped in world or more, from mobs, from raids (I hate to say this but yes more like WoW use to be) and no I am not interested in playing WoW again but Blizzard did do some good things, don't reinvent the wheel use good mechanism and apply them, people like that kind of thing

I am not so sure players like random drop schematics as much as you think. Getting one is neat, but for someone who actively seeks a random drop schematic..../shudder. The odds are typically VERY small and those who seek it invariably compete with those who want it too and therefore even when the schematic one wants drops there is the risk that someone else will get it. The "solution" is to increase the drop rate, but then the schematic drops too often, eventually everyone has it and it becomes vendor fodder; the intent - being a special snowflake - of those random drops is broken

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Thanks for your reply, I can understand where you coming from and appreciate it, but I am sure you can also appreciate the "idea" I am after and that some work into the crafting mechanism is considered, while REs may not be part of the crafting system per say...it is also not something you can remove from crafting and use, imo its fundamental but I am sure you agree on that. All I am saying is that if my toon becomes better at crafting a thing he could learn to craft a better one from crafting a single one or from RE one, ultimately there is room for improvement and for me much needed improvement.

 

I am also more optimistic and try and compare with the best, but that does leave some desired concepts and redesign even if it is just the sorting of the mission levels, having mission levels shown as eg. 10-16 or 41-48 but the missions you can get or buy have level numbers like 150 or 250, for sake of confusion as I am probably not very bright just make it all the same plz. Give me a toggle option to sort according to level and keep it there, instead of having it close and I have to go through the motions again. Larger companion job ques etc.

 

But mostly just give me revamped RE, make it as I said, crafting an item systematically makes that I could proc a better one and RE one the same, the more I have build or RE just gives me a multiplier that gives better odds of getting a proc, same with skill level if I am 50 point over the skill it takes to craft that item give me higher chance of getting the blue/purple etc

 

I don't think it will break the game and any improvement is...well an improvement ;)

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All I am saying is that if my toon becomes better at crafting a thing he could learn to craft a better one from crafting a single one or from RE one

 

I would agree with that statement if crafting was something a character could fully dedicate to. The fact is that crew skills is little more than a set of hobbies and/or secondaries skills for your character's posse (remember it is your companions that do all the work). Game mechanically, you - the character - take 4 seconds to disassemble a crafted item and try to learn something from it, but the virtual reality of the system is that one or more of your team spends time creating something over and over trying to improve upon it.

 

That being said, there are apparently "changes" coming to SWTOR crafting. No idea what they are as the dev team is being excruciatingly tight lipped. Wait and see.

 

But mostly just give me revamped RE, make it as I said, crafting an item systematically makes that I could proc a better one and RE one the same, the more I have build or RE just gives me a multiplier that gives better odds of getting a proc, same with skill level if I am 50 point over the skill it takes to craft that item give me higher chance of getting the blue/purple etc

 

I don't think it will break the game and any improvement is...well an improvement ;)

 

A system of increasing chance of success has been discussed ad nauseum here and the biggest issue is how fast? If one is guaranteed success after five attempts, then there might as well be a system where you craft five turn them in somewhere and get a schematic back. If it is in small increments - say 1% or 2% - the risk of long failure streaks remains. The option I came up with was reduce the base chance to 10% and increase by 4% increments. This maintains a close to 20% overall success rate but caps the failure steaks to the mid teens. The problem I have with that system is that it reduces the chance of early success:

 

with the system as is there is an inverse exponential curve where the best chance of success is in fact on your first attempt; the likelihood of first attempt success is greater than any other.

 

with the system of base 10% and 4% increments there is a positive skewed bell curve where the best chance of success falls between three and four attempts; the likelihood of 3.5 attempts success is greater than any other.

 

So the question is are players OK with having to craft more to succeed, but knowing there is a limit on failure?

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Point of fact: the system did at one point consider schematics you already had as "success". Back then you would get a message across the screen saying "you already have that schematic." The message does not happen anymore, so we can infer that aspect of the system was "corrected." (from a pessimistic standpoint one can say that all they did was hide the message, but I am an optimist ;))

 

 

LOL, nope. Got the message a few days ago. Nothing in SWTOR is ever really / permanently fixed.

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and here i was optimistic also...damnit, really hope these guys pull their thumbs out their asses and get some fundamental things fixed, no point building off shaky foundations...not like that care much imo...

 

But theyz gotz storyz.

 

Just encounted a bug that was there at launch. LOL.

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