TL;DR VERSION - READ BELOW TO SEE HOW I GOT THESE NUMBERS AND SOME IMPORTANT THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN LOOKING AT THEM

 

UPDATED 6/15/2012

 

These numbers represent the average number of simultaneous concurrent logins over the past two weeks. This isn't the number of subscribers, or number of characters, it's an estimate of how many people are actually logged in at once. Transfer status is noted also (from xxx means the server is a destination server for server xxx, to xxx means that the server is an origin server that is being directed to the xxx server.)

 

Top 20 US Servers

 

• The Fatman (PvP US East) Population ≈ 2257.5 Destination for: Cho Mai, Firkrann Crystal, Hedarr Soongh, Kinrath Spider, Rwookrrorro, The Deadweight, Thendys Noori
  
• Jedi Covenant (PvE US East) Population ≈ 1676.25 Destination for: Axial Park, Eidolon Security, Fort Garnik, Hanharr, Keetael, Keller's Void, Khoonda Militia, Ki-Ta Kren, Nathema, Sedyn Kyne, Telos Restoration Project, The Defenestrator
  
• Drooga's Pleasure Barge (PvE US West) Population ≈ 1030 Destination for: Darth Xedrix, Fa'athra, Lord Praven, Mask of Nihilus, Master Gnost-Dural, Master Zhar Lestin, Perlemian Trade Route
  
• The Harbinger (PvE US West) Population ≈ 800 Destination for: Empress Teta, Gauntlet of Kressh, Kaiburr Crystal, Krath, Namadii Corridor, Soresu, Wall of Light, Zaalbar
  
• The Ebon Hawk (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 660 Destination for: Kath Hound, Lord Adraas, Rubat Crystal, Sanctum of the Exalted, Shien
  
• Canderous Ordo (PvE US East) Population ≈ 650 Destination for: Assassins of Sion, Juyo, Kaas City, Kathol Rift, Krayiss Obelisk, Master Dorak, The Constant, The Corsair, The Courageous, Whitebeam Run, Zez-Kai Ell
  
• Jung Ma (RP PvP US East) Population ≈ 520 Destination for: Ajunta Pall, Ven Zallow
  
• Lord Adraas (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 460 To The Ebon Hawk
  
• The Bastion (PvP US West) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Black Vulkars, Daragon Trail, Dark Reaper, Infinite Empire, Mandalore the Indomitable, Nadd's Sarcophagus, Rakata Mind Prison, Shadowtown, The Crucible Pits, The Maw, Destination for: The Swiftsure, Warriors of the Shadow, Wound in the Force
  
• Ajunta Pall (RP PvP US West) Population ≈ 370 To Jung Ma
  
• The Swiftsure (PvP US West) Population ≈ 350 To The Bastion
  
• Prophecy of the Five (PvP US East) Population ≈ 330 Destination for: Bondar Crystal, Davik's Estate, Death Wind Corridor, Gardens of Talla, Infinity Gate, Iron Citadel, Naddist Rebels, Saber of Exar Kun, Sword of Ajunta Pall, Terentatek, The Twin Spears, Veela, Anchorhead, Helm of Graush, Port Nowhere, Vulkar Highway
  
• The Shadowlands (PvE US East) Population ≈ 310 Destination for: Dreshdae Cantina, Elysium, Giradda the Hutt, Grand Master Zym, Krayt Dragon, Sith Meditation Sphere, The Razor
  
• Begeren Colony (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 300 Destination for: Lord Ieldis, Vrook Lamar
  
• Sanctum of the Exalted (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 270 To The Ebon Hawk
  
• Krayt Dragon (PvE US East) Population ≈ 260 To The Shadowlands
  
• Lord Ieldis (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 250 To Begeren Colony
  
• Mind Trick (PvE US East) Population ≈ 250 Likely Canderous Ordo, Jedi Covenant, or The Shadowlands
  
• Public Test (PvE US East) Population ≈ 250 Likely Canderous Ordo, Jedi Covenant, or The Shadowlands
  
• Anchorhead (PvP US East) Population ≈ 247.5 To Prophecy of the Five
  

 

 

Top 20 Worldwide Servers

 

• The Fatman (PvP US East) Population ≈ 2257.5 Destination for: Cho Mai, Firkrann Crystal, Hedarr Soongh, Kinrath Spider, Rwookrrorro, The Deadweight, Thendys Noori
  
• Jedi Covenant (PvE US East) Population ≈ 1676.25 Destination for: Axial Park, Eidolon Security, Fort Garnik, Hanharr, Keetael, Keller's Void, Khoonda Militia, Ki-Ta Kren, Nathema, Sedyn Kyne, Telos Restoration Project, The Defenestrator
  
• Drooga's Pleasure Barge (PvE US West) Population ≈ 1030 Destination for: Darth Xedrix, Fa'athra, Lord Praven, Mask of Nihilus, Master Gnost-Dural, Master Zhar Lestin, Perlemian Trade Route
  
• The Jedi Tower (PvE EUR German) Population ≈ 950 Destination for: Dreypa's Oubliette, Handmaidens of Atris, Murakami Orchid, Opila Crystal, Stereb Cities, The Cinzia
  
• Tomb of Freedon Nadd (PvP EUR English) Population ≈ 920 Destination for: Ahto City, Chuundar, Hex Droid, Kai-kan, Niman,Scepter of Ragnos, Senator Contispex, Starstorm One, Tassaa Bareesh, The Exile's Crystal, The Kumumgah, The Ravager, The Shadow Runner, Tott Doneeta, Trayus Academy, Ula Vii, Uthar Wynn, Basilisk Droid, Bloodworthy, Legions of Lettow
  
• The Harbinger (PvE US West) Population ≈ 800 Destination for: Empress Teta, Gauntlet of Kressh, Kaiburr Crystal, Krath, Namadii Corridor, Soresu, Wall of Light, Zaalbar
  
• The Red Eclipse (PvE EUR English) Population ≈ 780 Destination for: Dxun Battle Circle, Eye of Ashlanae, Flames of the Crucible, Goluud Corridor, Kellian Jarro, Ludo Kressh, Rogue Moon, Sluis Shipyards, The Arkanian Legacy
  
• Gav Daragon (RP PvE APAC) Population ≈ 680 Unknown
  
• Dalborra (PvE APAC) Population ≈ 660 Unknown
  
• The Ebon Hawk (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 660 Destination for: Kath Hound, Lord Adraas, Rubat Crystal, Sanctum of the Exalted, Shien
  
• Canderous Ordo (PvE US East) Population ≈ 650 Destination for: Assassins of Sion, Juyo, Kaas City, Kathol Rift, Krayiss Obelisk, Master Dorak, The Constant, The Corsair, The Courageous, Whitebeam Run, Zez-Kai Ell
  
• Master Dar'Nala (PvP APAC) Population ≈ 580 Unknown
  
• Dune Bantha (PvE EUR English) Population ≈ 560 Likely The Red Eclipse
  
• Jung Ma (RP PvP US East) Population ≈ 520 Destination for: Ajunta Pall, Ven Zallow
  
• Huntmaster (RP PvP EUR French) Population ≈ 480 Unknown
  
• Lord Adraas (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 460 To The Ebon Hawk
  
• Vanjervalis Chain (RP PvE EUR German) Population ≈ 440 Destination for: Cassus Fett, Zayne Carrick
  
• Mantle of the Force (PvE EUR French) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Hssiss, Kissai Caste, Phateem Halls of Knowledge, Vodo-Siosk Baas,
  
• The Bastion (PvP US West) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Black Vulkars, Daragon Trail, Dark Reaper, Infinite Empire, Mandalore the Indomitable, Nadd's Sarcophagus, Rakata Mind Prison, Shadowtown, The Crucible Pits, The Maw, Destination for: The Swiftsure, Warriors of the Shadow, Wound in the Force
  
• The Progenitor (RP PvE EUR English) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Shaltin Tunnels, Trask Ulgo
  

 

 

 

HOW I GOT THOSE NUMBERS, WHY I DID THIS, THINGS TO CONSIDER, OTHER STATS:

 

Originally, this exercise was to try and predict the path of server transfer. Now, that process is mostly done and I'm monitoring the population out of simple observational curiousity.

 

As you may already know, http://www.torstatus.net codes server status as

 

1 = Light

2 = Standard

3 = Heavy

4 = Very Heavy

5 = Full

 

It then checks server status on all the servers every hour and records that number. It calculates the average of all of those hourly recordings for the last 14 days and reports than number as "ø". (http://www.torstatus.net/about)

 

This guy went and did a *lot* of work. Basically, he wrote a program to tell him when a server changed status, and then he went and /whoed the population of the server to see what actual population number is associated with what status.

 

http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/05/population-numbers-behind-server-status.html

 

He estimates, with plenty of variability in the data, that:

 

Light is up to about 500

Standard is up to about 1,500

Heavy is up to about 2,250-2,500(?) (Let's call this 2375 for now...)

Very Heavy is up to about 3,000

Full is greater than about 3,000

 

If you look at his data, you can see that sometimes a heavy server has 2000 people on it and sometimes it has 2500 people on it. Same kind of range (or more) for the other server statuses. Part of this is because people log on and log off while he's /who-ing the population, and part of this is because different servers might have different population levels and/or Bioware may alter those population levels. (So standard might be 1,500 on one server and 1,000 on a different server, or 1,500 today and 1,000 a month ago - we don't know.)

 

I think you can then use the two to estimate server population.

 

If ø is greater than 0, add the % ø is greater than 0 x 250 (where 250 is the average of 0 and the top end of the "light" status.)

 

 

 

The low phi servers are the ones that this analysis is most uncertain for, I think. I'm using 250 as my value for light. That could be, in all reality, 4 lost people or 499 people who are logged in all the time. So if my estimate is 250, the likely range is from 0.10x to 2x that. I can't detect a population less than a phi of 1, so if a server is really deserted, I can't tell. This is an uncertainty in the analysis that may lead to an overestimation or underestimation in the number of concurrent logins.

 

If ø is greater than 1, start with 250 plus the % ø is greater than 1 x 1000 (where 1000 is the average of the top end of light = 500, and the top end of standard = 1500).

 

 

 

If ø is greater than 2, then add 250 + 1000 + the % ø is greater than 2 x 1937.5 (where 1937.5 is the average of the top end of standard = 1500, and the average top end of heavy 2375).

 

 

 

Math is here - you're welcome to look at it yourself and see if you can find a better way to analyze this data. You'll also see tabs for previous analyses as well as summary tables for total and average populations by server type and region and a tab with transfer info.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodFJ2OWN5U0hwaVFBYWdqUUh1WmdZUFE#gid=15

 

That means if you take the numbers from Torstatus representing the average population over the last two weeks for the top 20 US and worldwide servers you end up with the list above.

 

The catch here is realizing that this estimate is based on a 14 day average status, so that's dead slack times and peak times. The theoretical average population UNDERESTIMATES the peak population and OVERESTIMATES the off-peak population.

 

Keep in mind this is the average number of people logged in - it's probable that not every player is logged in all the time. If you think that 50% of the population is logged in all the time, double this number for the number of subscribers. If you think that 10% of the population is logged in all the time, then multiply this number by 10x for the number of subscribers. If you think that 5% of the population is likely to be concurrently logged in, then you end up with about 1.3 million subscribers, more or less.

 

For instance, if I say that there are 600 people, on average, logged into server X, in real life that might mean:

 

400 Stay at home parents login at noon and logout at 4.

600 School kids login at 4 and logout at 8.

800 Working people login at 8 and logout at 12 midnight.

800 College students login at 12 midnight and logout at 4.

600 Insomniacs login at 4 and logout at 8.

400 3rd shift workers login at 8 and logout at 12 noon.

 

So that's 600 AVERAGE LOGINS but it's 3,600 SUBSCRIBERS.

 

So here are some summary statistics:

Total estimated worldwide average number of simultaneous concurrent logins of all servers (24 hr average over the last 2 weeks as of 6/15/2012).

65,061

 

This is the 3rd time since I've been tracking numbers that there has been an increase, and this is the largest increase thus far (Wednesday was 62,923).

 

SERVERS BY AREA

APAC 3

EUR English 45

EUR French 16

EUR German 30

US East 82

US West 42

Total 218

 

 

 

SERVERS BY TYPE

PvE 112

PvP 82

RP PvE 18

RP PvP 6

Total 218

 

This is a full reporting of all servers.

 

LOGINS BY AREA

APAC 1,920

EUR English 12,990

EUR French 4,545

EUR German 8,338

US East 25,219

US West 12,050

Total 65,061

 

LOGINS BY TYPE

PvE 33,191

PvP 23,678

RP PvE 6,080

RP PvP 2,113

Total 65,061

 

Here's another way to look at the logins, by transfer status. Origin means that BW has officially started outbound transfers from this server. Destination meand that BW has officially started inbound transfers to this server. Origin Likely means that BW has NOT made transfers available to this server, but I think that they are likely to (note that this is my personal opinion, guess, estimation, and not in any way official). Unknown means that BW is not likely to have transfers either to or from this server in what I think is the forseeable future (APAC servers and the EUR RP-PvP servers, again, note that this is my peronsal opinion, guess, estimation, and not in any way official).

 

LOGINS BY SERVER TRANSFER STATUS

Destination 13,764

Origin 37,803

Origin Likely 10,600

Unknown 2,895

Total 65,061

 

These are the average number of logins per server.

 

AVG LOGINS BY AREA

APAC 640

EUR English 289

EUR French 284

EUR German 278

US East 308

US West 287

Grand Avg 298

 

AVG LOGINS BY TYPE

PvE 296

PvP 289

RP PvE 338

RP PvP 352

Grand Avg 298

 

AVG LOGINS BY Transfer Status

Destination 688

Origin 250

Origin Likely 259

Unknown 483

Grand Avg 298

 

 

Check it out - our destination servers are *double* the size of the average server! Pretty neat.

 

 

The only real way to get at these demographics is for BW to release their data, but I don't know if they are willing or able to do so. The next best way is go in and /who the server a bunch, but I don't have time for that. This analysis is a shortcut to get at that data without nearly as much work. I hope I've been clear where I'm making assumptions and what those assumptions are. If you've got a better analysis, or a way to refine some of these assumptions, I'd love to know about it.

 

Paige

Edited June 17, 2012 by Scorpienne
updated data

My server is dead and it sucks, thats my thoughts.

My server is dead and it sucks, thats my thoughts.

 

^

 

same situation here

I find it fascinating that the RP servers, though a tiny fraction of the population of total servers, have some of the higher populations.

 

Thoughts?

I've little to say about your numbers in general but thought I'd comment on the RP server bit. In games that I've played since WoW I've found RP servers generally to be a pretty solid place community-wise with a typically steady and solid population. To broadly and crudely generalize, RPers tend to focus on very different things than the rest of the MMO crowd and appear significantly less fickle when it comes to game/server hopping.

 

Regarding the numbers, my server's not on that list but I never have any problems finding PvE or PvP activities.

Edited May 8, 2012 by SWImara

Very depressing, my server was full with ques at launch, at 6th place a month before 1.2, 16th place 2 weeks ago, now its not even in the top 20. But im sure some fanboy will point out that its somehow my fault.

Well compiled post. Gives the real picture pretty well.

woot..my server averages 109 people...so sad:mad:

The Ebon Hawk FTW!

 

We are "healthy" I think. Not too heavy, and not light by any means.

 

Just right.™

I still don't see why they decided that a full server should have around 3000 people. Based on studies calculated on WoW, on an average around 10% of a server's pop is online at a time. So, that's around 300 people on an average on a full server. That's very low.

I find it fascinating that the RP servers, though a tiny fraction of the population of total servers, have some of the higher populations.

 

 

Paige

 

Makes perfect sense. RPers are the people who spend the most time sitting down and talking to people in game. Even though they make up a smaller portion of the population, they also spend much more time in game just socializing with other people than people on generic PVP and PVE servers.

RP servers are just a tiny fraction of the overall servers. Since my work productivity has been shot to heck in a handbasket, I've been doing more math (I solve word problems for a living, so this kind of stuff is fun and second nature to me).

 

Even though we RP servers are a relatively small part of the total number of US servers, we have higher populations, on average, than the PvE and PvP servers. We’re probably more concentrated.

 

41 PvP servers; average pop = 385

70 PvE servers; average pop = 479

9 RP PvE servers; average pop = 598

3 RP PvP servers; average pop = 680

I still don't see why they decided that a full server should have around 3000 people. Based on studies calculated on WoW, on an average around 10% of a server's pop is online at a time. So, that's around 300 people on an average on a full server. That's very low.

 

I read 10-15%, so in theory if you calculated a population for all servers and them multiplied by 7-10x you would get an estimate of current active subs.

RP servers are just a tiny fraction of the overall servers. Since my work productivity has been shot to heck in a handbasket, I've been doing more math (I solve word problems for a living, so this kind of stuff is fun and second nature to me).

 

Even though we RP servers are a relatively small part of the total number of US servers, we have higher populations, on average, than the PvE and PvP servers. We’re probably more concentrated.

 

41 PvP servers; average pop = 385

70 PvE servers; average pop = 479

9 RP PvE servers; average pop = 598

3 RP PvP servers; average pop = 680

 

If you extended that further--

If they had stuck to 20 PvE servers as against 70, then average population would be 1676 per server.

10 PvE servers, ave pop = 3353 ( > full) !!!

Since I was bored I did some math based on these formulas. Seems like total (US/EU/pacific) is around 80k players which is 6% of reported active accounts.

 

Also only 30+ servers are needed to support current population then.

Edited May 8, 2012 by Arunas

It's a dual problem then - too many servers, and the server cap is too low.

 

I'm guessing the server cap might be related to Hero Engine problems - ie it can't handle too many players at once.

While the RP servers could be said to have 'high' population, let's keep some perspective. They're still less than half of the only truly well populated server in the entire game: Fatman.

 

Relativity can easily cloud one's conclusions.

 

I play on AP, and we have a hard time hitting 100 people on Fleet these days, and I've seen it as low as 12. Prior to 1.2, we always had 150+, and I certainly never saw it remotely close to 12.

 

So, I'd hardly consider AP (a RP-PVP) server, 'high' population, just because it happens to be in the top portion of that list.

 

All the list really tells us is there's only one healthy server, and a looooooooooooooooooooot of unhealthy ones, and even Fatman is a shell of what it was pre-1.2. It used to have multiple fleet instances, with 300+ people on fleet. I can't recall the last time I saw that many on Fleet there. Looking at the history graphs, you'll see that the trend has been a big population decline-game wide-after 1.2 hit.

 

If that's not a damning acclimation on how pointless that Legacy patch was, I don't know what is.

I started out on The courageous and The Razor. I'm now on Jedi Covenant and Canderous Ordo.

 

 

Needless to say, I'm much happier since I rerolled.

I read 10-15%, so in theory if you calculated a population for all servers and them multiplied by 7-10x you would get an estimate of current active subs.

 

Okay, I've only done this for the US servers....

 

For those of you who like to see the math...

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodFJ2OWN5U0hwaVFBYWdqUUh1WmdZUFE

 

I get an average overall pop for US servers of 56,795.

 

x7 = 397,565

x10 = 567,950

 

Hm. Maybe the math is wrong. We seem to be rather low. Or maybe oceanic/European servers have a lot of pop.

 

 

Paige

Thoughts?

 

Those numbers make sense, basically for a server to feel populated you're looking at needing a Heavy or even V Heavy server at prime time (you could even make an arguement for a Full one).

The Ebon Hawk FTW!

 

We are "healthy" I think. Not too heavy, and not light by any means.

 

Just right.™

 

just how I like my women

I can't believe servers with only 600 people on them are in the top 20 most populated servers. A healthy server should have over 1k people on it on average. We need some massive server mergers.

Using the ''10%'' rule, we arrive at the following US pop : 560 000

 

With Europe and Ocean pop, that's pretty close to 1.3 million. The amount of ''I'm paying but not playing'' might not be as high as people think,

Edited May 8, 2012 by Angedechu

What about all the people who aren't paying, but are still considered an active subscriber due to the free 30 days everyone with Legacy 6 or above got?

 

You don't think that makes the 1.3 mill number a tad...inflated?

Using the ''10%'' rule, we arrive at the following US pop : 560 000

 

With Europe and Ocean pop, that's pretty close to 1.3 million. The amount of ''I'm paying but not playing'' might not be as high as people think,

 

568K (US)

432K (EU/AP)

 

Total, 1,000K = 1 million

 

So ~300K people are paying but not playing. Which means you can project another 300K drop in the next few months. (this is w/o counting the impact of the 38 new countries added to the SWTOR)

 

Source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodFJ2OWN5U0hwaVFBYWdqUUh1WmdZUFE#gid=1

Edited May 8, 2012 by Muskaan

Using the ''10%'' rule, we arrive at the following US pop : 560 000

 

With Europe and Ocean pop, that's pretty close to 1.3 million. The amount of ''I'm paying but not playing'' might not be as high as people think,

 

Far less people play on EU servers than US. Amount of people paying but not playing is huge.

Edited May 8, 2012 by Arunas