Statistically speaking, your chance increases as you have a few bags without. Still there's no way of telling wether you'll get like 0 - 0 -0 .......... 1 - 1 - 1. That's the anoying part with chance

 

lol Your chance does not increase on the next bag if your previous bags did not have a commendation. That's called the gambler's fallacy. Don't commit it.

3 weeks of dailes and Weekly quests as BM, 2 tokens.

It is my opiniion that CHANCE based systems are the result of simple minded, idiotic design.

 

I couldn't agree more. This is dumb, random based rewards. Each 100 bags you have a chance to get 25, but you're enemy with luck can have 5 out of 10. Not fair nor fun.

And you can open 25 in a row and get none, it's unlikely but not impossible specially with million players, at least some will have this experience. This system is one of worst ideas ever i saw in MMO.

 

Probly they want to do something different only to say, it's different. But's lame.

 

IF you supposed to have 1 each 4 more or less, it's better to give a commendation each bag you open, and raise the price of items. Multiply the prices by 4. In avarage, long term, will be the same, but at least for short term game evolution you'll not feel stagned.

And there's more things idiotic in this bag system.

 

Takes too long to reach 60, when you reach it you'll proble have all champion set parts.

Just when you dont need champion commendation anymore, it begins to be the base drop from bag. This stupid.

 

When you begin to have champion commendation it's almost usless. Only serve to equip companion. This whole system's crap. It's very easy and do not have mystery. Give commendation each bag and/or the same commendation buy items from the sets, but what allow you do buy the set or not is your rank level, there's no mystery. Do a crazy system only to say it's different do not work.

Even t hough the law of averages states you SHOULD get 250 BM tokens from 1000, the way it's applied now, you may get 0 just the same. See how that works?

That's fine, but people don't win large batches, they win the odd bag here and there.

 

It doesn't really matter. There's essentially an infinite amount of bags. At 25% chance does not necessarily mean you're going to get one for every four bags you open.

Gabe Amatangelo: It is not sanctioned behavior. In Game Update 1.2 we will be making changes to the Warzone rewards system, which will de-incentivize this type of behavior. This will include the removal of the interim bag/quest system, the introduction of the direct purchase of gear from Warzone and Ranked Warzone commendations, 14 new objective-based medals and participation scaling the rewards. Additionally, players will have the option to vote kick idlers. Kicked players will not be able to re-queue for several minutes.

It doesn't really matter. There's essentially an infinite amount of bags. At 25% chance does not necessarily mean you're going to get one for every four bags you open.

 

Yes and that's the problem. You can do 5 and get 5 while other can do 50 and get none, this is dumb. It's easy you did you got. Raise prices.

 

They already made this change for patch 1.2

But took too long. I am saying this system's crap from the beggining.

rng is something that shouldnt be involved at any level in a pvp environment imho.

Im looking at 1 bm token and 13 bags open, yeah i know its not as bad as some but its disheartening and not condusive to keep you motivated to play imho.

Being able to see whats coming and figure out when your getting upgrades is much much better.

If the sytem sucked for champion bags(which they changed) why on gods green earth would they keep the rng bm system..boggle then...facepalm..

Edited February 18, 2012 by Canuk

Yes and that's the problem. You can do 5 and get 5 while other can do 50 and get none, this is dumb. It's easy you did you got. Raise prices.

 

They already made this change for patch 1.2

But took too long. I am saying this system's crap from the beggining.

 

I'm not saying I necessarily disagree with you. But then again, I've been trying to get my Columi chest piece to drop from the countless HMs and Operations I've been doing this week (more than any number of BM bags I could acquire in the same amount of time, mind you) and that's been just as much, if more hassle, than any of my gearing for PVP.

 

A numbers game is a numbers game is a numbers game. I'm glad tweaks will be made which will ensure some type of steady progress towards a goal in the same fashion of the changes t to Champ bags and think they probably have been made sooner, sure. This idea, however, that gear token drops should some type of assured thing, that a certain percentage should mean someone absolutely gets something after x bags or attempts...I'm less sure about. And I think shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the system works.

Each individual bag has a 25% chance to grant a token. Not, "you will get 250 tokens out of every 1000 bags you open."

 

 

The math isn't strong with this one.

The math isn't strong with this one.

 

LOL true. If I open 1000 bags, and the chance is 25%, I would expect 250 tokens or it's not 25% chance.

 

When is 1.2? sound like a Mid March thing.

At least you have something to show out of those 36 bags, I just opened my 35th in a row without a commendation. Currently sitting at 8 out of 85 bags (counting the tokens from before 1.1 as commendations).. Not really sure who thought RNG was even a remotely good idea for PvP gear.

LOL true. If I open 1000 bags, and the chance is 25%, I would expect 250 tokens or it's not 25% chance.

 

When is 1.2? sound like a Mid March thing.

 

Actually, his statement is correct. While 250 is the expected value (aka average), the odds of you actually getting 250 out of 1000 is rather low. Yes, you have a higher probability to get 250 than to get any other single number. However, you have a vastly higher chance to get some random number within a few deviations of 250. If you get 250 out of 1000 bags, you can't assume the average to be 25%. You must use a point estimator to make a guess as to the average.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_estimation

 

The law of large numbers makes RNG systems really frustrating.

Edited February 18, 2012 by Dosvidaniya

Actually, his statement is correct. While 250 is the expected value (aka average), the odds of you actually getting 250 out of 1000 is rather low. Yes, you have a higher probability to get 250 than to get any other single number. However, you have a vastly higher chance to get some random number within a few deviations of 250. If you get 250 out of 1000 bags, you can't assume the average to be 25%. You must use a point estimator to make a guess as to the average.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_estimation

 

The law of large numbers makes RNG systems really frustrating.

And, if anyone is interested, with a 25% probability per trial and 1000 independent trials, the probability to get exactly 250 successes is a measly 2.9%